I really think a LOT of weddings will go ahead with whatever restrictions are in place. Yes, quite a few 'bend the rules' but this still won't be enough to sustain a business, even if you were prepared to go along.
Short term, I have quite a few Oct/Nov weddings still and they haven't postponed as early as other months. Expectations are high that they can go ahead as planned, however if this isn't the case I can see a lot simply going ahead without an evening reception.
Xmas - 2 of my residencies have already said they aren't doing Xmas parties with exception of any private bookings. Will we be allowed to supply a disco by then ? Who knows. The back of my mind I think yes, however so much depends on the current situation and also threat of a surge in Winter.
The local lockdown has been a real worry for me. Not only do I supply discos in other areas, I also have to consider that a lot of couples/families travel from other areas - will the risk be too great ?
Split functions - NEVER going to happen, move on and if you are relying on them I think you need to have a good hard think.
The future - I think weddings have definitely changed for good. I have always said 80% of what couples spend on a wedding is a total waste of money. I have even seen venues reducing prices as lets face it, for a standard 3 course meal the costs were horrific.
Saving grace for us is I can still see discos being in demand eventually (I am talking summer 2021 at the earliest). The people I think will struggle are the non essential addons - venue dressers, dancefloors, love letters, and all the other stuff people waste money on.
The wedding industry is apprehensive to see what announcements are made this week and majority are only campaigning for receptions to be allowed for 30 people. This just is NOT ENOUGH, especially for ourselves. There will be the odd exception, but apart from those already booked, if weddings are only going to be allowed for 30 people not many will be paying full price for suppliers. Some suppliers seem ignorant to this and so long as bookings are in the diary they are happy - perhaps why so many have struggled to get anything from SEISS etc (myself included in that).
Moving away from weddings - I think the bubble will burst with pubs/clubs having entertainment too. Social distancing is here for a long long time and although they are enjoying swift trade at the moment once bad weather arrives (putting a stop to outdoor events) and the real job cost of all this sinks in, many will struggle. A lot seem to have forgot how much they struggled before.