Sunday nights...

[womble]

The pub where we do karaoke on a Friday night have asked us to come round for a chat about Sunday nights.

They want us to do "something" but they (and we) don't know what. All they know is that they've purchased a giant 'play your cards right' set and want to do something with that on Sunday nights.

So, as we already do Karaoke on Fridays, I figured best not to do that but was thinking about some kind of quiz with an accumulating prize for the PYCR game followed by a disco. Does anyone do anything similar in terms of the quiz/PYCR formats? Any ideas or suggestions for how to best make it work?

[ppentertainments]

The pub where we do karaoke on a Friday night have asked us to come round for a chat about Sunday nights.

They want us to do "something" but they (and we) don't know what. All they know is that they've purchased a giant 'play your cards right' set and want to do something with that on Sunday nights.

So, as we already do Karaoke on Fridays, I figured best not to do that but was thinking about some kind of quiz with an accumulating prize for the PYCR game followed by a disco. Does anyone do anything similar in terms of the quiz/PYCR formats? Any ideas or suggestions for how to best make it work?

Yes, you can get some quite good nights as long as you vary them a bit. I have done a similar night once a month every Sunday and it, thankfully, is growing monthly.

I am on my way out soon but will reply in full tomorrow :)

[rob1963]

Hi Womble,

In my view a quiz , play your cards right AND a disco is a bit much. However, I've done pub quiz nights where I finished off with play your cards right, and it worked really well. The quiz was done first, with prizes awarded to the top teams. Play your cards right was then done straight afterwards as a separate entity, so people could either participate in just the quiz, just the cards or both.

I sold raffle tickets for £1 each, then drew one out & that person was the contestant for play your cards right. If they failed, the money rolled over to the following week, and on a couple of occasions it got close to £500 before being won. You can imagine the atmosphere!

If you want to know anything specific, ask away!

:)

[womble]

Hi Womble,

In my view a quiz , play your cards right AND a disco is a bit much. However, I've done pub quiz nights where I finished off with play your cards right, and it worked really well. The quiz was done first, with prizes awarded to the top teams. Play your cards right was then done straight afterwards as a separate entity, so people could either participate in just the quiz, just the cards or both.

I sold raffle tickets for £1 each, then drew one out & that person was the contestant for play your cards right. If they failed, the money rolled over to the following week, and on a couple of occasions it got close to £500 before being won. You can imagine the atmosphere!

If you want to know anything specific, ask away!

:)


The problem is that the pub is definitely not a 'quizzy' pub (at the moment) if we advertise it well enough it may well build a quiz following in time. But at the moment it's a 'boozer' and the clientele like discos and karaoke.

So my thought was to keep the quiz very low-brow and short, lots of questions that your average reader of Heat magazine would be able to answer.

I had a similar thought about the raffle, whereby everyone entering the quiz pays £1 and in return gets a raffle ticket for the play your cards right game at the end with a rollover feature.

What I don't know is how likely is it that someone will win at PYCR? I haven't done stats since I was about 18 but would like to know what the odds are on someone completing the game?

[rob1963]

What I don't know is how likely is it that someone will win at PYCR? I haven't done stats since I was about 18 but would like to know what the odds are on someone completing the game?

This is something I can probably help you with, as I did a lot of experimenting before I first ran the game.

I had a rough idea of how often I wanted someone to win (in order for the jackpot to reach a decent amount), and worked backwards from there, so this dictated how many cards I needed to use & whether they were able to change the first card if they wanted to.

If you can tell me how many cards are used in the set your pub has acquired, I can probably give you an idea of the win rate.

[wensleydale]

As it's all random is is not a case of 0.5 to the power of how many card they need to guess right to get to the "end"?
Appreciate that they have more chance when higher or lower cards are on display but as its all random it comes back to higher or lower essentially.

[rob1963]

As it's all random is is not a case of 0.5 to the power of how many card they need to guess right to get to the "end"?
Appreciate that they have more chance when higher or lower cards are on display but as its all random it comes back to higher or lower essentially.

Unfortunately it's not quite that simple, Rich, because apart from higher or lower they can also get a pair...which is obviously neither. Also, it depends on how many cards the rules let them change if they want to. In other words, they might not be able to change any cards at all, or you can let them change the first card if they want to, which will obviously increase the win rate. Apart from that, if they have quite a few high cards on the board, there is more chance that remaining cards will be lower, and vice versa.

The way I found out the average win rate was to play the game many times myself on a table using a normal pack. I played it 100 times using a certain number of cards, 100 times using the same number of cards but with the ability to change the first card if I wanted to, 100 times with a different number of cards etc.

Although time consuming, this gave me the average win rates with different numbers of cards & different rules as to whether they could change any cards if they wanted to.

[rob1963]

What I don't know is how likely is it that someone will win at PYCR? I haven't done stats since I was about 18 but would like to know what the odds are on someone completing the game?


If you can tell me how many cards are used in the set your pub has acquired, I can probably give you an idea of the win rate.

Womble,

If you can answer my question above, I should be able to give you an idea of the odds on someone completing the game.

[Dynamic Entertainment]

How many cards do you use Rob, and whats your win rate, if you dont mind me asking?

[StarZSoundS]

How many cards do you use Rob, and whats your win rate, if you dont mind me asking?

There is no win rate..its a game of chance...


I can't believe Rob has been playing with himself....but then again:eek: :eek: :eek:

It goes when it goes ...I've had up to £750 and as low as £35...Its not a Science!!:) :) :)

[Dynamic Entertainment]

I disagree. There is a win rate. Yes its a game of chance, but there is a chance that they win, and that is factored in on the probability of calling the cards correctly. The number of possibilityes, when done correctly will issue a win rate. It works for the national lottery, so.....

[rob1963]

There is no win rate..its a game of chance...


Of course there's a win rate!

If I roll a dice to try & get a 6, it's a game of chance...but there's still a win rate. I reckon it's one in six!


I disagree. There is a win rate. Yes its a game of chance, but there is a chance that they win, and that is factored in on the probability of calling the cards correctly. The number of possibilityes, when done correctly will issue a win rate. It works for the national lottery, so.....

Exactly!


How many cards do you use Rob, and whats your win rate, if you dont mind me asking?

When I do PYCR I'm looking for a win rate of about 1 in 12. If it's much less than this, there won't be enough chance for the money to build up as much as I want, but if it's much more people might think it will never be won or that they have little chance of winning.

When doing my research, I played the game 100 times with a normal pack using various numbers of cards. When using 8 cards & allowing myself to change the first card if required, I won 8 times. That's a win rate of about 1 in 12.5, which was pretty much what I wanted.

Therefore, I decided to use 8 cards & let them change the first card if they want to.

I kept a note of the stats when I last ran PYCR as part of a quiz last year. The first win was after 13 weeks, the second after another 7 weeks, the third was 3 weeks later & the fourth was after another 24 weeks.

Therefore, the game was won 4 times in 47 weeks. That equates to an average win rate of 1 in 11.75, which was incredibly close to the 1 in 12.5 which I was expecting.

[JTRS]

There is no win rate..its a game of chance...


I can't believe Rob has been playing with himself....but then again:eek: :eek: :eek:

It goes when it goes ...I've had up to £750 and as low as £35...Its not a Science!!:) :) :)

I have to agree with this, it is a game of chance.

Any win rate is determined on the cards that came out during your test run, and since it is a random deal those cards have no bearing on future deals.

I've been doing PYCR for just over a year, when the jackpot is won I go back to 10 cards and if/when the jackpot gets to £150 I take one card away each week (down to a mimimum of 5 cards) until it is won, the person playing the game is always allowed to change the first card if they so wish.

I've had people who have done all 10 cards, and I've had people who have failed to do 5 cards. We've had a couple of instances where the jackpot has been over £800, and a few times the jackpot has been won on the first run when it is the guaranteed £40.

You could do this 1000 times on your own and the results you get will not have any bearing on future events, the cards are random.

In mathematical terms you have calculated the 'expected probability' of an event, however there can sometimes be a huge difference between expected probablity and actual results.

JTRS

[StarZSoundS]

I have to agree with this, it is a game of chance.



I've been doing PYCR for just over a year, when the jackpot is won I go back to 10 cards and if/when the jackpot gets to £150 I take one card away each week (down to a mimimum of 5 cards) until it is won, the person playing the game is always allowed to change the first card if they so wish.



JTRS


Interesting Simon....



I stick with nine cards.....and only the first one is changeable.Yours is an interesting slant.....

I find it all builds up....some body wins a cracking Jackpot.....and the next few weeks it goes for a much smaller figure.....:) :) :)

[Shakermaker Promotions]

If you have a really wide range of music and are confident of being able to play stuff that people will request then why not start off with some music and play stuff that people ask for. Make a big deal of it and state that you will play anything that is requested if you have it. This will get people relaxed and also let them know that they will get music that THEY want.

This can be a build up to the quiz. Music in between each round and then the grand finale near the end can be the PYCR. This will keep people hanging around in the pub which will mean more takings for the pub etc etc...You can finish off with a few tunes and job done!

[StarZSoundS]

If you have a really wide range of music and are confident of being able to play stuff that people will request then why not start off with some music and play stuff that people ask for. Make a big deal of it and state that you will play anything that is requested if you have it. This will get people relaxed and also let them know that they will get music that THEY want.

This can be a build up to the quiz. Music in between each round and then the grand finale near the end can be the PYCR. This will keep people hanging around in the pub which will mean more takings for the pub etc etc...You can finish off with a few tunes and job done!



SNAP!SNAP!SNAP! Gary....

You've just described my Sunday Evening.I don't know if its going to work tho'....I've only been doing it six and a half years!!!

Whats really nice is I have renamed the last hour "The Chill-Out Hour"...preparing people for the week ahead with tunes from people like Kenny R,Tom J,Gene P,The Osmonds etc etc:) :) :)

[womble]

Some interesting replies on here.

As yet I don't know exactly what the pub have purchased, I'm going to speak to them tomorrow/wednesday.

While it is a game of chance there is still a win-rate. Just like any game of chance, such as roulette, blackjack etc. it is possible to calculate the chance of winning which is why the house always wins. I like the ideas of having a 1 in 12 win rate, but I also like the idea of reducing the number of cards. I may do a combination of the two (i.e if the jackpot exceeds £X then the number of cards is reduced each week). I really want to nail down the rules before we start so that we don't find ourselves changing them as we go along and looking like we didn't really think it through.

I need to fill 3-4 hours and keep people in, but I think a quiz lasting that long will be very onorous, I like the idea of filler music between rounds, but may try and slim the quiz down and finish with an hour or so of Northern Soul or something...

[rob1963]

Any win rate is determined on the cards that came out during your test run, and since it is a random deal those cards have no bearing on future deals.

And yet my ACTUAL win rate over a year was 1 in 11.75, which was almost identical to the 1 in 12 win rate I achieved during my test run. Coincidence? I think not!

I should point out that the win rate is actually the AVERAGE win rate. In other words, it could be won two weeks in a row or it could go 6 months without being won.

Similarly, you could throw a dice 20 times & not get a 6, or you could get a 6 twice in a row. However, the AVERAGE rate at which you'll throw a 6 is 1 time in every 6.

[JTRS]

While it is a game of chance there is still a win-rate. Just like any game of chance, such as roulette, blackjack etc. it is possible to calculate the chance of winning which is why the house always wins.

At the risk of going off topic.......

I accept there is a win-rate, but this is merely an indication of what has already happened and it has no bearing on any future events.

If we take roulette as an example there are 37 numbers, so you can say there is a 1 in 37 chance that your number is expected to come up, so that's easy to calculate, however with cards it's much more difficult, and even more so with PYCR since you are not betting on a single spin, but on the combined results of 'x' amount of cards.

This is where calculating the chance of winning is blown out of the water, if we compare roulette to play your cards right to win 10 times (ie the same as predicting 10 cards) is 1/37 x 1/37 x 1/37 x 1/37 x 1/37 x 1/37 x 1/37 1/37 x 1/37 x 1/37. If we compare that to say predicting heads or tails on a coin toss it is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2.

However with PYCR it is not that simple, you are asked to predict higher or lower (when in reality there is the chance that it could be a pair), and then you have to factor in the 'what has gone before in the game', eg if you have a KING and all four ACES have already come out then it cannot be higher.

For that reason it is impossible to calculate the odds or the chances of winning a game like PYCR.

JTRS

[rob1963]

I really want to nail down the rules before we start so that we don't find ourselves changing them as we go along and looking like we didn't really think it through.

Spot on! :thumbsup:


I need to fill 3-4 hours and keep people in, but I think a quiz lasting that long will be very onorous

You're absolutely right, 3-4 hours is WAY too long for a pub quiz.

Mine run for about 2 hours (or a little longer if they're busy & I have more sheets to mark), and I've found this to be just about right.


For that reason it is impossible to calculate the odds or the chances of winning a game like PYCR.

And yet I seem to have managed it!

:D

[JTRS]

My quiz nights/PYCR also runs for 2 hours, from 9pm till 11PM

Format is quiz starts at 9pm, 30 questions, customers fill in answers twice tear the sheets down the middle and hand one half in, then they mark their own, I check the winning score against the sheet they handed in.

Then it's PYCR, £1 a ticket, the winning ticket wins £5 and the chance to win the jackpot. If they don't do it then it rolls over to next week.

Occasionally, (bank holidays, big jackpots etc) I will announce that there will be 3 chances on PYCR, only the first one drawn wins the £5 but if they fail at PYCR I will draw another ticket out and if they also fail I will draw a 3rd ticket out. Feedback from the regulars is that they like the extra chances to win.

JTRS

[womble]

For that reason it is impossible to calculate the odds or the chances of winning a game like PYCR.
JTRS

Actually, it is very possible, but not very easy. When I was studying A Level stats I could have done it but I forgets things now.

But basically....

If an Ace came out first then there are 51 cards remaining in the deck, 3 of which are Aces, so the chances of you progressing is 48/51. If a 4 came out next then assuming you decide to go higher your odds of progressing are now 36/50 (total odds so far are 48/51 x 36/50 therefore if you got and Ace followed by a 4 and chose 'higher' each time the odds would be 67% so you would win roughly 2 out of three times).

As there are 13 different starting positions (we can ignore the suits of the cards), and then numerous second card positions, third positions, etc. you would have to calculate the odds for every possible scenario and add them all together.

[rob1963]

Actually, it is very possible, but not very easy. When I was studying A Level stats I could have done it but I forgets things now.

But basically....

If an Ace came out first then there are 51 cards remaining in the deck, 3 of which are Aces, so the chances of you progressing is 48/51. If a 4 came out next then assuming you decide to go higher your odds of progressing are now 36/50 (total odds so far are 48/51 x 36/50 therefore if you got and Ace followed by a 4 and chose 'higher' each time the odds would be 67% so you would win roughly 2 out of three times).

As there are 13 different starting positions (we can ignore the suits of the cards), and then numerous second card positions, third positions, etc. you would have to calculate the odds for every possible scenario and add them all together.

Nice one, Womble!

I knew there would be a mathematical formula to work out the win rate, but not being very good at maths and due to the number of variables, there was no way in a million years I'd be able to work out that formula.

I therefore decided to go down the practical route to get an idea of the win rate, which still worked well, although it was VERY long winded!

[JTRS]

Actually, it is very possible, but not very easy. When I was studying A Level stats I could have done it but I forgets things now.

But basically....

If an Ace came out first then there are 51 cards remaining in the deck, 3 of which are Aces, so the chances of you progressing is 48/51. If a 4 came out next then assuming you decide to go higher your odds of progressing are now 36/50 (total odds so far are 48/51 x 36/50 therefore if you got and Ace followed by a 4 and chose 'higher' each time the odds would be 67% so you would win roughly 2 out of three times).

As there are 13 different starting positions (we can ignore the suits of the cards), and then numerous second card positions, third positions, etc. you would have to calculate the odds for every possible scenario and add them all together.

Yes I accept you can work out the probability for advancing in one particular game which is what you have done, but unlike roulette or a coin toss which is fixed odds PYCR differs every single turn of the card and in every single game.

Lets say in the game after you quoted as an example you drew a 7 as your starting card then you have dramatically altered your initial progression odds.

You cannot apply standard deviation to PYCR because the standard deviation is in this case the entire range of all 13 cards.

What you have calculated is the probability of winning based on non variables and NOT the win rate based on a variance of factors.

JTRS

[Solitaire Events Ltd]

I bet some of you guys are an absolute scream when you're working....:sj:

[JTRS]

I bet some of you guys are an absolute scream when you're working....:sj:

:D

Yeah I calculate the odds of me playing the reqest that someone has just made.

If they are cute, blonde, nice body and no wedding/engagement ring then they have a higher win rate than if they are ugly and married

:p :p :p

JTRS

[StarZSoundS]

:D

Yeah I calculate the odds of me playing the reqest that someone has just made.

If they are cute, blonde, nice body and no wedding/engagement ring then they have a higher win rate than if they are ugly and married

:p :p :p

JTRS



A little tip for Darren...


If ...by chance ....you are ever at one of Simons functions....don't bother asking for a request!!!:devil: :devil: :devil: :devil: :devil: :devil: :devil: :devil:

[womble]

Yes I accept you can work out the probability for advancing in one particular game which is what you have done, but unlike roulette or a coin toss which is fixed odds PYCR differs every single turn of the card and in every single game.

Lets say in the game after you quoted as an example you drew a 7 as your starting card then you have dramatically altered your initial progression odds.

You cannot apply standard deviation to PYCR because the standard deviation is in this case the entire range of all 13 cards.

What you have calculated is the probability of winning based on non variables and NOT the win rate based on a variance of factors.

JTRS

Correct, I have shown the probability based on one route. As I said though you would have to calculate it on every possible route (of which there are too many for me to even think about) and then add them together in order to get the overall odds of winning before a card has been turned.

Anway, I have figured it out to be roughly 0.71 per card involved. So 7 cards, from a deck of 52, will give a win rate of roughly, on average, 1 in 11 games.

Right...

Pythagoras theorum anyone?

[JTRS]

Correct, I have shown the probability based on one route. As I said though you would have to calculate it on every possible route (of which there are too many for me to even think about) and then add them together in order to get the overall odds of winning before a card has been turned.

Anway, I have figured it out to be roughly 0.71 per card involved. So 7 cards, from a deck of 52, will give a win rate of roughly, on average, 1 in 11 games.

Right...

Pythagoras theorum anyone?

I wasn't saying it was not possible to calculate the probability of winning a particular game based on calculating the odds on a particular sequence of cards coming out, what I was saying was it wasn't possible to predict how many weeks it would take for the jackpot to be won, and thereby the overall winrate.

You could get a run of weeks where the random cards are naturally H L H L H L (eg K 2 Q 3 K 2 J 5 etc) or you could get a run of weeks where you get 6 8 5 6 7 6 8 etc

Since you cannot come up with a formula that will predict what the starting cards or the subsequent cards are in advance then you cannot possibly hope to calculate how many weeks it will take for the game to be won.

Since you cannot predict what the sarting cards are you cannot calculate in advance the win-rate for PYCR. Whilst you may have worked out what the 'average' win rate is based on past events there is nothing to force future events to stay in line with the average that you have so far experienced.

And anyway I prefer Monty Hall to Pythagoras :D :D

JTRS

[womble]

I wasn't saying it was not possible to calculate the probability of winning a particular game based on calculating the odds on a particular sequence of cards coming out, what I was saying was it wasn't possible to predict how many weeks it would take for the jackpot to be won, and thereby the overall winrate.
JTRS

It is possible to work out a win rate. I concur that because it's 1 in 12 doesn't mean it will be won every twelfth week, but over time it will average out to that figure.



Since you cannot predict what the sarting cards are you cannot calculate in advance the win-rate for PYCR.
JTRS

Yes you can. The starting card is simply another factor in the probability - i.e. there's a 1 in 13 chance that the starting card is a 7.

[rob1963]

It is possible to work out a win rate. I concur that because it's 1 in 12 doesn't mean it will be won every twelfth week, but over time it will average out to that figure.

Exactly.

It's a bit like a fruit machine with a payout rate of 80%. That doesn't mean that if you put in £10 you'll win £8, but it does mean that the AVERAGE payout will be £8 for every £10 put in.

[JTRS]

It is possible to work out a win rate. I concur that because it's 1 in 12 doesn't mean it will be won every twelfth week, but over time it will average out to that figure.



Yes you can. The starting card is simply another factor in the probability - i.e. there's a 1 in 13 chance that the starting card is a 7.

OK I agree you have calculated out the average number of weeks to win based on your sample. In the time I have been doing mine the average win span has been 7 weeks, but sometimes it has gone as many as 20 weeks and once I had 3 winners in 3 weeks, so an average isn't going to help me predict anything.

JTRS

[JTRS]

Exactly.

It's a bit like a fruit machine with a payout rate of 80%. That doesn't mean that if you put in £10 you'll win £8, but it does mean that the AVERAGE payout will be £8 for every £10 put in.

EXACTLY

So apply that to your statement when you offered to calculate in advance the win rate for the OP, you cannot calculate that, but what you can calculate is the average win rate for a series of games where you know the results, and since you are doing that 'after the event', it doesn't automatically follow that future events will fall into that pattern.

I still maintain that it is random, neither I nor you can say for certain that play your cards right will be won at our respective venues this week and NOR could either of us say it if the jackpot hadn't been won for the past 52 weeks!

JTRS

[rob1963]

So apply that to your statement when you offered to calculate in advance the win rate for the OP, you cannot calculate that, but what you can calculate is the average win rate for a series of games where you know the results, and since you are doing that 'after the event', it doesn't automatically follow that future events will fall into that pattern.

Although it doesn't automatically follow that future events will follow a similar pattern to previous events, it's still a VERY good guide.

As already stated, I played the game 100 times at home & achieved a win rate of 1 in 12.5 goes.

When running the game for real, over a period of a year, the win rate was anything from about 1 in 3 to 1 in 25. HOWEVER, if you use those figures to work out the AVERAGE win rate, it comes out to 1 in 11.75, which is almost exactly the same as I achieved in my research.

[womble]

I still maintain that it is random, neither I nor you can say for certain that play your cards right will be won at our respective venues this week and NOR could either of us say it if the jackpot hadn't been won for the past 52 weeks!

I don't think anyone ever said that we could? If I could predict that then I would be playing the lottery with more success every week.

What I can tell you is that, over time, the win rate will average out, and what it will average out to is a figure that is calculable.

All I wanted to know, was if I was to play PYCR, how often would the jackpot get won. I worked it out and Rob did it using experience/practical tests and we got the same answer, therefore I am willing to believe in science.

[JTRS]

All I wanted to know, was if I was to play PYCR, how often would the jackpot get won. I worked it out and Rob did it using experience/practical tests and we got the same answer, therefore I am willing to believe in science.

That's the bit I don't agree with, you cannot say how often the jackpot will get won, you can only say what the average has been for the past occasions, which in reality has no bearing on future events because the cards are random.

I know my average, but in reality it means nothing because as I have said I have had weeks where it was won on the trot and others where it went ages, and as with all averages these change as you have more sample data.

Knowing the average number of weeks for a game of chance like PYCR is in my opinion an interesting statistic, but nothing more, it certainly doesn't help me plan anything.

JTRS

[womble]

That's the bit I don't agree with, you cannot say how often the jackpot will get won, you can only say what the average has been for the past occasions, which in reality has no bearing on future events because the cards are random.

I know my average, but in reality it means nothing because as I have said I have had weeks where it was won on the trot and others where it went ages, and as with all averages these change as you have more sample data.

Knowing the average number of weeks for a game of chance like PYCR is in my opinion an interesting statistic, but nothing more, it certainly doesn't help me plan anything.

JTRS

I kind of see where you are coming from but I believe, or rather, I know the probability is a massive help. And the 'interesting statistic' will be borne out in the results.

For example. If you play PYCR with just two cards - a starting card and one face down then your chances of winning are 71%. So you will probably get a winner roughly 2 out of every 3 weeks.

If you play with one starting card and 7 face down cards then your chances are reduced to just 9%. Which will probably get you a winner 1 in 11 weeks.

Surely you must see that, in this example, the probability is directly linked to the length of time before you will on average get a winner?

To take it to extremes, the probability that you will pull out a 14 of hearts is 0% and I guarantee that with a standard deck of 52 it will never happen. Likewise, the probability that the card will be a red or black suit is 100% and I can guarantee that if that were the objective then you would get a winner every week. This shows how the p() gives a win rate.

[Solitaire Events Ltd]

I've lost the will to live....

:sj:

[womble]

Would you like me to bring some tree diagrams and a scientific calculator to bpm?

[Solitaire Events Ltd]

Would you like me to bring some tree diagrams and a scientific calculator to bpm?

Yeah, I can't wait....:jumping:

[womble]

Yeah, I can't wait....:jumping:

Are you taking the :Censored:


:p

[rob1963]

I've lost the will to live....

:sj:

Darren....I do believe you're posting in a thread in which you have no interest whatsoever!

:p

[JTRS]

For example. If you play PYCR with just two cards - a starting card and one face down then your chances of winning are 71%. So you will probably get a winner roughly 2 out of every 3 weeks.



I don't follow that, if you have one starting card and one card face down I am assuming that you know your starting card (you have to see it to call higher or lower).

Therefore you are only predicting one card, so in theory you have a roughly 50/50 chance of winning, I say roughly because of the 3/51 chance it is a pair. However if every week that card is a K or a Q most people would go lower and I would suggest the chances of them winning would be almost guaranteed, so you would get a winner 3 weeks out of 3.

The card you can see will influence your decision and also the odds of you being correct, since the draw is random you cannot predict how often you will get a winner, all you can say is what the average of games gone by is for a winner.

I still maintain that knowing the average is not beneficial to anyone, future draws are not bound to follow the average.

JTRS

[womble]

I don't follow that, if you have one starting card and one card face down I am assuming that you know your starting card (you have to see it to call higher or lower).
JTRS

Correct. However the odds I have stated are prior to the starting card being dealt. Once you know the starting card then the odds change. If the starting card is a King or an Ace then your odds of winning would be 92% (48/52) If it were a 7 then your odds become 46% (24/52). Given that there are 13 different starting cards possible then you total up all the odds and divide them by 13 which gives an average odds of 71.01%.

[JTRS]

Not wanting this to become any more protracted than it is I think we can agree to differ.

If you think that knowing the average will help you run your quiz nights then great you know your average

I know that knowing the average of mine doesn't help me

Good luck with your events :beer1:

JTRS

[rob1963]

If you think that knowing the average will help you run your quiz nights then great you know your average

Having an idea of the average win rate before you start is definately a help, as it removes the possibility of having to change things after discovering the win rate is either lower or higher than you'd like.

If someone starts PYCR without giving any thought to how many cards they use or doing any research and things don't work out how they want, they only have themselves to blame.

[JTRS]

Having an idea of the average win rate before you start is definately a help, as it removes the possibility of having to change things after discovering the win rate is either lower or higher than you'd like.

If someone starts PYCR without giving any thought to how many cards they use or doing any research and things don't work out how they want, they only have themselves to blame.

Now that I do agree with

If you had said originally that you could calculate an expected or average win rate then I doubt that anyone would have suggested otherwise.

However, the point I disagreed with was when you said you could calculate the win rate, you can't, nobody can because it's random.

Now we are talking averages then yes I can see why research would help, if my 3 wins on the trot had come up when I first started out then maybe I would have increased the cards I use, conversely if my dry patch (don't confuse with wet patch) had come up when I first started out then I would have reduced my cards

OK if it's any help, if you start out with 10 cards and after an average of 5 weeks without a win the jackpot hits £150 and you take one card away each week until you get a winner then my average based on 18 months of doing this is a winner every 7 weeks. The shortest winning interval was 1 week and the longest was about 12 weeks

JTRS

[Excalibur]

I've lost the will to live....

:sj:

I'm just going outside. I may be gone sometime. ;) :D :D

[JTRS]

I'm just going outside. I may be gone sometime. ;) :D :D


Excalibur Oates I presume :D :D :D

JTRS

[JTRS]

I'm aiming this at womble because it's obvious that he likes to work out probabilities......

If you are playing find the lady, ie out of 3 cards one is a queen and the other two are aces. If the cards are shuffled up and you pick one card and you are not allowed to see what you have chosen, you will agree you have a 1 in 3 chance of winning (33.3%). If before you look at your card I show you one of my cards and it's one of the Aces I show you, then what's the chances that you have the queen?

JTRS

[yourdj]

pig racing would work.

[womble]

I'm aiming this at womble because it's obvious that he likes to work out probabilities......

If you are playing find the lady, ie out of 3 cards one is a queen and the other two are aces. If the cards are shuffled up and you pick one card and you are not allowed to see what you have chosen, you will agree you have a 1 in 3 chance of winning (33.3%). If before you look at your card I show you one of my cards and it's one of the Aces I show you, then what's the chances that you have the queen?

JTRS

I would say that, assuming you looked at your cards before showing me one, then the odds are still 1 in 3 as you always had at least one ace all along.

But according to your theory it's completely random as the calculated probability doesn't affect future outcomes.

[womble]

pig racing would work.

Tell me more of this pig racing that you speak of...

Just had the meeting with the pub and we're now looking at doing something on the occasional Wednesday too.

[womble]

Just seen a pig racing video. That would be great! However, after doing some research though where would we stand on the Lotteries and Amusements Act 1976?

If we raised X amount are we allowed to take our fee and the hire cost of the gear out of that fee before paying the remainder to a local charity?

Alternatively could we take a fee from the venue for providing the service and pay out 100% of the tote to the punters?

I just don't want to fall foul of any legislation.