View Full Version : Will we return in 2021?
Imagine
06-02-2021, 12:11 AM
Soooo.....unwinding after another long and arduous shift delivering online groceries (Gawd.....will this hell on earth never end :( ).
Catching up with the news....it appears there may be light at the end of the tunnel for a possible return to business as usual this year!
I'm seeing reports of all over 50's having their first jab by the end of May (that's the majority of those who are going to end up in hospital), I'm seeing optimism from Fleet Street about a "normal" summer, I'm seeing reports of the vaccines stopping or reducing transmission!
In my own very tired and fuzzy brain cell...this is all looking to be good news indeed.
I know there's still a long way to go and in my heart of hearts can't see much happening during 2021 for what we do....after all, we're public health enemy number 1 with singing, dancing and hugging. But in your own crystal balls/seaweed/tarot cards....can any of you see some sort of glimmer of hope for the back end of the year at least?
rth_discos
06-02-2021, 10:19 AM
Catching up with the news....it appears there may be light at the end of the tunnel for a possible return to business as usual this year!
I'm seeing reports of all over 50's having their first jab by the end of May (that's the majority of those who are going to end up in hospital), I'm seeing optimism from Fleet Street about a "normal" summer, I'm seeing reports of the vaccines stopping or reducing transmission!
I think we need to be careful between 'return to normal' and 'easing restrictions'.
I think we'll be seeing something similar to last night. On a personal note, I would happily take what we had last summer, to be able to eat out with a small number of friends, do a bit of shopping and take short breaks in the UK! This current lockdown in winter is very tiresome!
I am a bit pessimistic about the idea of large weddings with an evening reception party returning this year.
The word I'm hearing at the moment is that to open up fully, even once the over 50s over vaccinated, would overwhelm the NHS just from the number of under 50s who would end up hospitalised (even if death rates weren't overly high).
Plus we now have the cat and mouse game of the vaccine and the mutations of the virus that could render the vaccine less effective.
I've resolved to the idea of not doing a disco again this year. Any I do get to do will be a bonus.
The optimism I'm hearing is from Fleet Street, Finance and the Travel Industry - the ones who 'need' normal to return.
The scientists are a bit more cautious about the outlook.
We really need the entire population vaccinated - which will be late summer. And we've already been told to expect further restrictions next winter, even once we're vaccinated.
And there's another risk - the supply of vaccinations. That supply could get disrupted at any time - the demand for vaccines is greater than the supply from production...
So a few hurdles to navigate first!
Be ready to offer the 'all day wedding' service again this summer, providing entertainment through the meal, and then finishing at 7/8pm after a 'first dance'.
Benny Smyth
06-02-2021, 01:32 PM
Be ready to offer the 'all day wedding' service again this summer, providing entertainment through the meal, and then finishing at 7/8pm after a 'first dance'.
Or, and this is assuming that the previous tier system returns, provide your evening service in tiers one and two in a covid-secure way and carry on until just after last orders at 10pm. Dancing wasn't illegal in the lowest two tiers and it's about time we as an industry championed that fact.
ppentertainments
06-02-2021, 01:53 PM
Be ready to offer the 'all day wedding' service again this summer, providing entertainment through the meal, and then finishing at 7/8pm after a 'first dance'.
If the amount of work picked up I would prefer that to getting back to normal if honest.
Sad truth is, I done 21 weddings since March and not one has social distanced correctly. Restriction easing seems to be a lot more cautious, and if I was a neutral I would say NO to weddings for a long time. Similar situation with pubs who put entertainment on.
Excalibur
06-02-2021, 01:55 PM
Well, up until about an hour ago, I'd have confidently envisaged being able to work at functions of say fifty people around August. Then a bride who boked to marry in June 2020, postponed to August 2020, married in August 2020 with the permitted number of folk, planning a big party on the 1st Anniversary ( Aug 2021 ) has just emailed to say "we are coming to the conclusion the blessing won’t happen this year given the circumstances" . :(
I still expect to be working around that time, and have two bookings in the diary for August. ( I've got one for March, and one for May, currently. I don't see either happening if I'm honest ).
Gavin's idea about All Day Weddings finishing before 9pm has legs, I'm sure. To that end, a couple of purchases are on the cards.
1) New Tablet.
My trusty Surface is having battery problems, mainly due to not having regular power cycles after the start of Lockdown 1. Don't know exactly how old it is, but it's served me well, and is an indispensable piece of kit for me. Sadly, a like for like replacement will cost me around £1k if I want full sized USB sockets. ( Which obviously, I do ).
2) Maui 5 GO.
When I went to the shop years ago, to buy a Bose S1, despite having twenty of the blasted things in stock, they refused to sell me one, as " the batteries are unreliable ". :confused:
I tested a mighty Roland "portable" unit, which was ideal if Motorhead wanted to go busking!! :eek: Full band PA running from half a dozen U2 batteries, absolutely staggering. Awesome, just not the thing for discreet ceremony music.
So, I walked out of the shop with a 5 GO in white ( cos they wouldn't sell me the demo black one, the only one in stock).
Like many of my colleagues, I abhor visual imbalance, so the second one has been on the shopping list ever since I got the first one.
Other than a Denon Prime GO, I think those two purchases will be ideal for low volume small weddings, especially if mains electricity is in short supply.
DeckstarDeluxe
06-02-2021, 03:19 PM
No, not really and if we do it'll be a tame tail end of 2021.
Everyone needs to have the vaccine, prove that it works and that social distancing can be lifted. I can't see that happening much before June/July and then you need folks not to get twitchy feet (why stress yourself out when you can move it to next summer and play it safe?).
DJ Jules
06-02-2021, 07:34 PM
Or, and this is assuming that the previous tier system returns, provide your evening service in tiers one and two in a covid-secure way and carry on until just after last orders at 10pm. Dancing wasn't illegal in the lowest two tiers and it's about time we as an industry championed that fact.
You've said this a few times and I'm not sure where you're getting this from? In Tier 2 pubs could only serve alcohol with a substantial meal, background music was off the menu and punters had to mask up to leave their tables. Weddings were limited to a seated reception.
Happy to be proved wrong, but none of that sounds like it allows for people to stand up, let alone dance?
I'm sure there's going to be scope for us to be providing some kind of service this year, but whether customers are prepared to settle for a reduced wedding (or pay for a reduced service from us) is another question entirely. I still have most of 2020's bookings in my diary for 2021, but there's a slow trickle of requests coming in to move them out to 2022 or even 2023. A couple of local venues have gone bust and that has caused another handful of bookings to cancel outright as they've been left out of pocket and don't have the money or the energy to start planning again from scratch.
Julian
Benny Smyth
07-02-2021, 09:48 AM
You've said this a few times and I'm not sure where you're getting this from? In Tier 2 pubs could only serve alcohol with a substantial meal, background music was off the menu and punters had to mask up to leave their tables. Weddings were limited to a seated reception.
Happy to be proved wrong, but none of that sounds like it allows for people to stand up, let alone dance?
It's because when people read the guidance, they conflate 'Must' (legal requirement) and 'Should' (advisory).
https://i.ibb.co/XLB8tL3/001.jpg (https://ibb.co/3dXzcdM)
https://i.ibb.co/Tg9tn34/002.jpg (https://ibb.co/nLxjVJ7)
https://i.ibb.co/dtHyb3S/003.jpg (https://ibb.co/420xsDc)
And here is the guidance. (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-for-small-marriages-and-civil-partnerships/covid-19-guidance-for-wedding-and-civil-partnership-receptions-and-celebrations?fbclid=IwAR0mnExV72tfmEXAQJ0klXrTuhW6 iur2niG5F4Qs6PuYuncGuv5EIMZ99YM)
Again, this is assuming we go back to the tiered systems which, apparently, BoJo is not a fan of.
Imagine
07-02-2021, 10:03 AM
It's because when people read the guidance, they conflate 'Must' (legal requirement) and 'Should' (advisory).
https://i.ibb.co/XLB8tL3/001.jpg (https://ibb.co/3dXzcdM)
https://i.ibb.co/Tg9tn34/002.jpg (https://ibb.co/nLxjVJ7)
https://i.ibb.co/dtHyb3S/003.jpg (https://ibb.co/420xsDc)
And here is the guidance. (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-for-small-marriages-and-civil-partnerships/covid-19-guidance-for-wedding-and-civil-partnership-receptions-and-celebrations?fbclid=IwAR0mnExV72tfmEXAQJ0klXrTuhW6 iur2niG5F4Qs6PuYuncGuv5EIMZ99YM)
Again, this is assuming we go back to the tiered systems which, apparently, BoJo is not a fan of.
BUT, the very same regulations say that the only dancing which is EXEMPT from the PROHIBITION of dancing (i.e. it's prohibited/illegal) is the first dance.
18901
Benny Smyth
07-02-2021, 10:07 AM
BUT, the very same regulations say that the only dancing which is EXEMPT from the PROHIBITION of dancing (i.e. it's prohibited/illegal) is the first dance.
18901
Now go track down those regulations, 'cos I've not been able to find them.
DJ Jules
07-02-2021, 10:35 AM
The 'should' parts were being interpreted by different local authorities in different ways. The majority were treating recommendations as if they were law, due to the possible implications if lack of adherence caused an issue down the line.
It's the same as PAT, it's guidance, not law, but try telling that to a judge if you electrocuted someone and failed to take even basic 'recommended' steps to mitigate the risks.
I suspect the tier system and the rules are likely to be rewritten before they're issued again so we're guessing really about what's going to be in them. I'd also expect enforcement of recommendations to vary depending on local risk, so areas with lower case numbers are likely to see less enforcement action.
So, who knows really. I think it's too soon to start making any kind of plans or making statements about what is or isn't going to be allowed. The uncertainty and lack of guidance may be what hurts us most.
ppentertainments
07-02-2021, 11:54 PM
Afraid that's why we're in the position we are in, because nobody would do what they 'should' have been doing.
East Anglian Discos
08-02-2021, 04:37 PM
I’ve got no intention of working until I’ve had the vaccine and consider it safe to work for me and my guests.
Many of us thought we would be working late in 2020 but that was blown way of course.
Realistically I’m optimistic for a return late Summer 2021.
Shaun
10-02-2021, 02:07 PM
Will we return in 2021? I very much doubt the restrictions (at least the restrictions relating to events will be lifted any time soon). I'd go as far as to say I'm doubtful that 2022 will see a return to anything more normal gig-wise. Hopefully I'm wrong.
rth_discos
10-02-2021, 02:15 PM
Will we return in 2021? I very much doubt the restrictions (at least the restrictions relating to events will be lifted any time soon). I'd go as far as to say I'm doubtful that 2022 will see a return to anything more normal gig-wise. Hopefully I'm wrong.
I agree.
If anything, Government seem less optimistic about this summer than last summer.
Last summer we had small weddings and foreign holidays.
This summer, they are already talking fairly negatively about the prospect of a foreign holiday.
However, I think that's more to protect against the risk of importing a mutation - because that risks our entire vaccination programme. So there is still a light at the end of the tunnel for domestic activity to pick up if we can contain the threat of mutations (although I fear it's already in the country and spreading).
On that note, I had an enquiry today for a wedding at the end of May this year! I've asked how many people she intends to have at the wedding. More than 30 and I'll be declining!
East Anglian Discos
10-02-2021, 05:38 PM
I hope before I do finally retire I’ll be back gigging!
rth_discos
10-02-2021, 09:54 PM
The stats on Peston this evening are the first time I've seen data laid out showing what the impact of loosening restrictions would be against the efficacy of the vaccine.
In reality, even with a successful vaccine roll out, and even with a successful vaccine efficacy, the earliest we're looking at the loosening of restrictions is April, and even then it would need to be incredibly slow.
E484K is the new buzzword we're going to be hearing a lot of over the coming weeks.
I'm increasingly thinking this summer the best we can hope for is what we saw last summer. And even that might be a stretch :(
Imagine
10-02-2021, 10:38 PM
I'm increasingly thinking this summer the best we can hope for is what we saw last summer. And even that might be a stretch :(
I can't see it being as liberated as last summer personally....but surely they've got to slacken the reigns at some point (summer being best when infections and pressures on the NHS are lower) to see how things are affected, haven't they?
Got to admit, all the talk of "don't book a holiday either here or abroad yet" has got me thinking this year's actually going to be a lot more restricted and cautious than last year :(
It would appear potential customers are thinking along the same lines too. I had a small spike of web traffic, enquiries and bookings at the end of January...and now things have died again.
Thankfully I've only got one wedding to worry about between now and June. This particular wedding is scheduled for 6th March and I have a feeling they're possibly being held to ransom by the venue until Boris makes his next grand edict on 22nd February (I'm still awaiting a reply to my last email about their plans but really can't see it going ahead).
Surely if the vaccines are reducing the risk of being hospitalised, and as was asked during the briefings this evening, the lateral flow tests could possibly be used before weddings....there must be some leeway to allow gatherings to go ahead to see how things go? We've got to start somewhere, haven't we?
But then...the way the politicians work we could be fully open and seeing arms held aloft again by the end of March when the priority groups have had their first shot.
So confused at the moment :(
I had a full year's worth of weddings booked for 2021, and at the moment it looks like my earnings are going to be coming solely from a supermarket delivery driver's job again - that's not a nice prospect believe me :(
DJ Jules
11-02-2021, 06:05 AM
I suspect the government were trying to keep things moving as much as possible towards the end of last year and playing a game where they were balancing economic activity and hospital admissions. However, that's now backfired and they've ended up with new variants of the virus because, if you allow transmission, you end up with mutation, and those mutations are now threatening the vaccination strategy. I suspect that they're now being told by 'the science' that they need to get transmission numbers and cases back to very low numbers before they relax any rules or they risk undermining all of the work that is being done to roll out vaccines.
Also keep in mind that the current 'lockdown' is barely keeping a lid on virus growth.
The way Boris dodged the question on holidays twice yesterday... He knows the answer and it's not going to be good.
Julian
Excalibur
11-02-2021, 10:38 AM
Her we go folks, coffee and biccies time. Bumper Bundle. Can you tell I'm having a Snow Day? :whistle::)
Realistically I’m optimistic for a return late Summer 2021.
Define "return". I'd expect us to be running with a ceiling of fifty guests for a looooong time. I'd take that with both hands.
Will we return in 2021? I very much doubt the restrictions (at least the restrictions relating to events will be lifted any time soon). I'd go as far as to say I'm doubtful that 2022 will see a return to anything more normal gig-wise. Hopefully I'm wrong.
I agree.
If anything, Government seem less optimistic about this summer than last summer.
Last summer we had small weddings and foreign holidays.
Shaun, regular little ray of sunshine, ain'tcha? :p:) I hope you're wrong, too.
Gavin, I think perhaps that's a result of realism and knowledge. Last year, it was unthinkable that this mess would continue much past summer. Now we know that last year's optimism was misplaced, and it's entirely possible that we write off 2021 as well. :eek::eek::eek::eek:
I hope before I do finally retire I’ll be back gigging!
Oi! :mad: Wash your mouth out with soap, you young whippersnapper!
Seriously, I know colleagues who are countenancing never gigging again. Me, well I've tried to retire three times, and never made it stick.
" Old DJs never retire, they just fade out/go round more slowly/witticism of choice". :D
I can't see it being as liberated as last summer personally....but surely they've got to slacken the reigns at some point (summer being best when infections and pressures on the NHS are lower) to see how things are affected, haven't they?
If not, then there will be so many venues closing, never to reopen, that life will be grim for all, not just DJs. There's a finite amount of time you can mothball venues. :p
I had a full year's worth of weddings booked for 2021, and at the moment it looks like my earnings are going to be coming solely from a supermarket delivery driver's job again - that's not a nice prospect believe me :(
I'd like to post a witty riposte to that, but in all honesty, I feel your pain, so I won't. Normal service will be resumed as soon as possible.
I suspect the government were trying to keep things moving as much as possible towards the end of last year and playing a game where they were balancing economic activity and hospital admissions. However, that's now backfired and they've ended up with new variants of the virus because, if you allow transmission, you end up with mutation, and those mutations are now threatening the vaccination strategy. I suspect that they're now being told by 'the science' that they need to get transmission numbers and cases back to very low numbers before they relax any rules or they risk undermining all of the work that is being done to roll out vaccines.
Also keep in mind that the current 'lockdown' is barely keeping a lid on virus growth.
The way Boris dodged the question on holidays twice yesterday... He knows the answer and it's not going to be good.
Julian
And at the time, that was a sensible course of action ( in my humble opinion). Remember " Eat out to help out"? I don't believe that caused a spike, but it did keep some venue's heads above water. As above, how long can you mothball an economy ( or at least travel and hospitality) before it withers on the vine? :confused: Answers on a postcard please.
ppentertainments
11-02-2021, 03:23 PM
Will we return in 2021? I very much doubt the restrictions (at least the restrictions relating to events will be lifted any time soon). I'd go as far as to say I'm doubtful that 2022 will see a return to anything more normal gig-wise. Hopefully I'm wrong.
Totally agree, anything we do get will be a bonus.
I am still bewildered at how many DJs are saying they are not getting another job as will be back soon - mind you these were the same DJs that last June announced they were back to work haha.
I think this can actually be a good time for us all if we face the realistic future. I have now started another business which is (kind of) going really well. This will be something I will carry on after we do return (albeit will need more staff) to bring in a bit passive income and even start to set me up for a business I can retire with. I have heard some great stories of others who have turned this into a positive.
ppentertainments
20-02-2021, 10:49 AM
Anyone get the feeling we are going to be in for a LONG LONG LONG wait ?
Imagine
20-02-2021, 11:07 AM
Anyone get the feeling we are going to be in for a LONG LONG LONG wait ?
Never doubted that fact with all the recent headlines :(
I've planned for the business to be offline for the remainder of 2021 at least. Anything I do get to do will be a bonus in my book
ppentertainments
20-02-2021, 02:36 PM
Never doubted that fact with all the recent headlines :(
I've planned for the business to be offline for the remainder of 2021 at least. Anything I do get to do will be a bonus in my book
Think there will be bits and pieces like last year, but realistically Easter 2022 is probably a good aim for anything like things used to be.
However, I promised myself last summer that if by March this year there isn't an end in sight, I will let it go - source DJs to cover bookings already in then that will be it, keep the basic kit but no investments etc. It is a business at the end of the day and not worth flogging a dead horse.
Boris, it is over to you ......
rth_discos
20-02-2021, 03:17 PM
if by March this year there isn't an end in sight, I will let it go
I do wonder how many DJs would be happy to hang up their headphones, except the only issue is there isn't a market at the moment for the equipment!
Excalibur
20-02-2021, 04:40 PM
Anyone get the feeling we are going to be in for a LONG LONG LONG wait ?
Never doubted that fact with all the recent headlines :(
I've planned for the business to be offline for the remainder of 2021 at least. Anything I do get to do will be a bonus in my book
Think there will be bits and pieces like last year, but realistically Easter 2022 is probably a good aim for anything like things used to be.
Now hold on there Musky! Easter 2021 has to see a relaxation of some kind, the economy, and the hospitality industry can't survive much longer, otherwise. As discussed elsewhere, I'd expect to see us doing sub fifty people weddings, with an early finish soon after Easter, and general ones by around August.
However, I promised myself last summer that if by March this year there isn't an end in sight, I will let it go - source DJs to cover bookings already in then that will be it, keep the basic kit but no investments etc. It is a business at the end of the day and not worth flogging a dead horse.
Boris, it is over to you ......
I do wonder how many DJs would be happy to hang up their headphones, except the only issue is there isn't a market at the moment for the equipment!
Gavin, I think that a lot of DJs who have another income stream, ( especially if it provides enough to live on ) would be considering selling up, were it not for the fact that they expect to be offered peanuts for it. I reckon I've seen quite a few adverts for folk selling kit just to raise funds to keep going. :(
I'm not sure where I'm going to put it yet, or how to phrase it, but I have had a thread in mind about the ramifications of exactly this, once the restrictions are eased.
DJ Jules
20-02-2021, 07:53 PM
Now hold on there Musky! Easter 2021 has to see a relaxation of some kind, the economy, and the hospitality industry can't survive much longer, otherwise. As discussed elsewhere, I'd expect to see us doing sub fifty people weddings, with an early finish soon after Easter, and general ones by around August.
We'll find out tomorrow but, given that they're talking about extending furlough to the summer, I suspect that the roadmap is likely to show schools returning and limited contact between households in outdoor spaces in March, then non-essential businesses 4-6 weeks after that (April) and then hospitality re-opening with quite strict conditions in late April/May and more general easing much later in the year. Nightclubs - probably not in 2021?
For weddings, I'd expect them to able to go ahead with VERY limited numbers in April, possibly opening up to 50 towards the summer months, but I wouldn't expect entertainment as we know it to be allowed until nightclubs are allowed to re-open much later in the year.
I guess we'll find out what they're thinking on Monday though.
Julian
Imagine
20-02-2021, 09:41 PM
For weddings, I'd expect them to able to go ahead with VERY limited numbers in April, possibly opening up to 50 towards the summer months, but I wouldn't expect entertainment as we know it to be allowed until nightclubs are allowed to re-open much later in the year.
I guess we'll find out what they're thinking on Monday though.
Julian
And yet, they're now saying that all adults are to be offered the jab by the end of July
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56141867
Somebody please correct me if I'm wrong because I'm losing the plot rapidly but surely even if the vaccine doesn't stop the transmission, it's already (I think) being proven to stop or at least reduce hospitalisation isn't it? That being the case and the reduction of stress it's going to cause the NHS, surely we can be back to some sort of normal even on reduced numbers come the end of summer, can't we?
And if the kids are going back to school in March, what's to stop at least kids parties going ahead (within their class bubble if necessary and parents excluded)?
rth_discos
20-02-2021, 09:55 PM
Somebody please correct me if I'm wrong because I'm losing the plot rapidly but surely even if the vaccine doesn't stop the transmission, it's already (I think) being proven to stop or at least reduce hospitalisation isn't it? That being the case and the reduction of stress it's going to cause the NHS, surely we can be back to some sort of normal even on reduced numbers come the end of summer, can't we?
This is the bit I find interesting. Already the most vulnerable in terms of are vaccinated, and we're not far away from all of those who are vulnerable being vaccinated - and then as you say, we're only months away from *everyone* being vaccinated.
You'd think this would be cause for everything returning to *normal*.
Now I'm not one to claim this is all made up and there's some crazy alternative motive behind it.
But clearly it doesn't seem to be as simple as vaccinate and return to normal.
My fear is that the scientists are more worried about the mutations that are already in the country than they are letting on.
Personally, I'd rather they were just honest with us about the reality of the situation - but I can understand why they aren't.
If after everyone is vaccinated this summer we're not back to normal, and we continue to require social distancing, then I fear we are years away from normality - if it were to ever return. I'm beginning to consider the possibility that the world may *never* be the same again (or at least for a few years at least). That then does become a game changer for us (and I'm not even sure at that stage what you can even do with £££k of equipment sat in storage!)
Imagine
20-02-2021, 11:29 PM
But clearly it doesn't seem to be as simple as vaccinate and return to normal.
My fear is that the scientists are more worried about the mutations that are already in the country than they are letting on.
Personally, I'd rather they were just honest with us about the reality of the situation - but I can understand why they aren't.
Personally, I'd rather they were just honest. We're not kids (well...the vast majority of us anyway). A little honesty would probably help though.
Something to bear in mind too...if the scientists had their way we'd never socially mix again - there's too much chance of ANY virus/bug spreading. Whilst I admire their work, they're always looking at worse-case scenarios and how to stop spreading any disease known to man. Sadly, life can't work like that and there has to be some element of risk otherwise we'd die out as a species.
If after everyone is vaccinated this summer we're not back to normal, and we continue to require social distancing, then I fear we are years away from normality - if it were to ever return. I'm beginning to consider the possibility that the world may *never* be the same again (or at least for a few years at least). That then does become a game changer for us (and I'm not even sure at that stage what you can even do with £££k of equipment sat in storage!)
I actually fear that after everyone's been vaccinated, a lack of return to normality will result in mass civil disobedience.
Eventually people WILL return to normal because let's face it, if everyone's had the shot then they're not going to believe there's any need to continue with masks/social distancing etc. I'm already hearing this from customers on their doorsteps each and every day. The current situation won't be able to continue because the public will become lockdown-tired and just ignore it. If everyone starts to ignore the rules, there's no way in the world they can be policed/fined/stopped.
As for the £££ of kit, if it's not going to be used it'll unfortunately mean bringing the "core" kit home for storage somewhere until it can be used again, and the rest going to recycling. That'll be a very sad day indeed, but once the scales of costs of keeping it vs when it's likely to be used again tip that far...I don't see as I have much choice but to cut my losses and get over it :(
DJ Jules
21-02-2021, 06:17 AM
The problem is that vaccination doesn't stop infection, it just protects people from serious illness and reduces the rate of transmission (because people who aren't sick, aren't contagious for as long).
If transmission rates are high, then there's a strong chance of mutation, and if the virus mutates to circumvent the vaccine, then we're back to square one.
Vaccination reduces transmission, so it helps keep R down while allowing us to open things up, but it's a gamble whether it reduces it enough to prevent mutations from becoming rife. It's a fine balancing act and, sadly, this isn't just about us. The Kent mutation is showing up around the world now, so it needs a global effort to get the virus under control. Either that or we do close borders completely until global numbers drop and even then we run the risk of immediately getting another vaccine resistant, highly transmissible strain run through the country when they re-open. The hotel quarantine plan kind of makes sense but, if you look at what we're doing, we're repeating all of the mistake that Australia made last year.
I think you're right though, regardless of what science says, people will have had enough by the summer and, if last summer is anything to go by, that will probably be fine (outdoor gatherings with some controls didn't really pose a risk last year) but whether the transmission rates allow the rules to be relaxed enough to re-open dance floors and how close we are allowed to return to normal, is likely to be another story...
Honestly, I think the population are dumb enough to think that vaccination means we're done and go back to normal life, regardless of the rules, and put us back to square one. Either that or America will do it for us 🤣
DJWilson
21-02-2021, 11:18 AM
Honestly, I think the population are dumb enough to think that vaccination means we're done and go back to normal life, regardless of the rules, and put us back to square one. Either that or America will do it for us 藍
The issue is we all keep being told this vaccine is the route out, so as others have already said if we're not out by the time all adults are done (at least all vulnerable) then people will say :Censored: this I'm going to enjoy life again.
You can't keep people living in fear of this or any future virus.
I speak to many people everyday in my day job and the amount of people that won't do anything or see anyone is shocking. There's no point living if we're acting as if we're already dead.
Excalibur
21-02-2021, 01:49 PM
Julian post #27, and Wayne#28, I think ( hope? ) you're both correct. Seems logical to me.
Gavin #29, I think it's the fear of opening everything up too quickly, and going straight back to square one that's holding them back. Also, the flak they'd receive for doing so. It appears ( to me ) that they feel that prolonged lockdown is the lesser of two evils. Connected to this, I'm sure they're aiming to lower the numbers as much as possible before taking the brakes off, to minimise the chances of vaccine resistant strains appearing.
After last year, once Spring/Summer arrive, I'm not sure how much longer people will tolerate draconian restrictions. I do indeed fear civil unrest, even if it's something as minor as having a party with fifty people.
ppentertainments
21-02-2021, 02:41 PM
The issue is we all keep being told this vaccine is the route out, so as others have already said if we're not out by the time all adults are done (at least all vulnerable) then people will say :Censored: this I'm going to enjoy life again.
You can't keep people living in fear of this or any future virus.
I speak to many people everyday in my day job and the amount of people that won't do anything or see anyone is shocking. There's no point living if we're acting as if we're already dead.
Have you noticed how we have seen nothing on Rishi (chancellor) since his comments about the scientists moving the goalposts ??
I am in no way a conspiracy theorist by any stretch of the imagination, but it does seem as though government are moving goalposts and choosing what industries they want to survive.
My son attends one of the top Performance Arts schools in the country - and even they have had government emails suggesting to change career.
DJWilson
21-02-2021, 09:10 PM
Have you noticed how we have seen nothing on Rishi (chancellor) since his comments about the scientists moving the goalposts ??
I am in no way a conspiracy theorist by any stretch of the imagination, but it does seem as though government are moving goalposts and choosing what industries they want to survive.
My son attends one of the top Performance Arts schools in the country - and even they have had government emails suggesting to change career.
Yup. We're not being given the full picture (hopefully tomorrow will be worthwhile), which is the most frustrating part.
They can't say we need to open step by step to stop another surge and then send all kids, from every year group back on the same day :daft:.
Imagine
21-02-2021, 11:31 PM
They can't say we need to open step by step to stop another surge and then send all kids, from every year group back on the same day :daft:.
Sadly then can, and they will (it'll be the most important part of the edict given tomorrow evening).
Something to bear in mind, they're saying that all adults will be offered the jab by the end of July....but that's only the first shot. How long until everyone gets the second shot to make things properly safe?
I still think anything we get this year will be a massive bonus. They'll keep saying we can't party in any shape or form until such time as the second shots have been administered and the variants dealt with.
The sad part is, weddings in particular are the IDEAL way to reopen what we do. It's a closed guest list (track and trace right there) and could lead the way forward for all mass gatherings and parties going ahead
Is it 2022 yet?
Excalibur
22-02-2021, 07:05 AM
How long until everyone gets the second shot to make things properly safe?
16th May. :D
Oops, sorry. :o Didn't see the " everyone" bit. :p ;)
Benny Smyth
22-02-2021, 08:27 AM
Have you noticed how we have seen nothing on Rishi (chancellor) since his comments about the scientists moving the goalposts ??
This is something that has played on my mind for a while now. The justification of all the restrictions that we have endured over the last year - whether you agree with them or not - were put in place to ensure that the NHS doesn't get overwhelmed. One could argue over how successful that has been, but the point is that was the goal - Protect the NHS. To put it bluntly, people can become very ill with Covid-19 and some will pass on but as long as the NHS can get to a level where it can cope with the workload, and it being overworked doesn't contribute to the number of deaths, then that was the goal. It was never about people, it was about numbers.
I came to this realisation on the afternoon my cousin succumbed to Covid-19. I was watching the news and I saw a man who lived on this earth for 47 years become a number, and not a number by himself but bunched in with a load of other people who - regardless as to what they have contributed to the world - are now a statistic.
But that's what we did. Lives were lost alongside homes, jobs, careers, businesses, support, friends, family, sanity, health...the list goes on, all on the understanding that we can start returning to normal once the NHS was able to cope. So from that perspective, after the top 9 groups get vaccinated, there is no justification for these restrictions to remain in place because they were the ones that took up the most hospital beds. Mission accomplished.
But it's not.
The narrative is changing and we're seeing the finish line of this marathon moving further away. It was a case of "If we achieve this, we could have that" and now it's "Ah...but we need to do this now." Regardless as to whether you agree with the new narrative or not, the fact is that a lot of people are going to be annoyed that the thing they were promised is no longer relevant, and when you so many who are on the brink of losing everything that they have spent their entire life building and working towards because the goal has changed...it's a scary thought.
And the even scarier thought? Think of all those businesses and individuals who will be doing their 20/21 tax returns after not earning any money for a year. Chances are, they'll be getting a rebate while at the same time not paying anything in to help contribute towards the NHS that we are all trying to protect.
Stuff it. I'm opening an OnlyFans account.
Imagine
22-02-2021, 02:49 PM
Fingers crossed.....
Mark 21st June in the diaries lads and ladesses!
Shaun
22-02-2021, 02:58 PM
Fingers crossed.....
Mark 21st June in the diaries lads and ladesses!
....yep, but 2024 if in Scotland. :daft:
Vectis
22-02-2021, 02:58 PM
Subject to possible future delays..
12th April - outdoor pubs open again no food requirement but rule of 6 in place
17th May - outdoor events up to 30 allowed
21st June - all restrictions removed; clubs etc. can reopen
:beer1:
Imagine
22-02-2021, 03:11 PM
Subject to possible future delays..
12th April - outdoor pubs open again no food requirement but rule of 6 in place
17th May - outdoor events up to 30 allowed
21st June - all restrictions removed; clubs etc. can reopen
:beer1:
I know as we all do that's it not set in stone yet....there are too many variables which can cause the whole thing to come tumbling down and delay everything again.
Just the thought of being able to go back to work again this year is one hell of a relief though. I certainly wasn't expecting that one!
Excalibur
22-02-2021, 04:48 PM
Never mind 21st June, I'm more bothered about getting my hair cut on 12th April! :D I'm currently doing a Wild Man Of Borneo lookalike. ( With a very wiide centre parting, of course, sadly). :(
I'm currently doing a Wild Man Of Borneo lookalike. (
You and me both, It's well over the collar and I'm starting to resemble a member of Status Quo. At least it's still there, and growing LOL
Shaun
22-02-2021, 07:48 PM
Never mind 21st June, I'm more bothered about getting my hair cut on 12th April! :D I'm currently doing a Wild Man Of Borneo lookalike. ( With a very wiide centre parting, of course, sadly). :(
First thing I did during the latest lockdown was source a rebel barber. I make no apologies. Lol.
ppentertainments
22-02-2021, 08:22 PM
Never mind 21st June, I'm more bothered about getting my hair cut on 12th April! :D I'm currently doing a Wild Man Of Borneo lookalike. ( With a very wiide centre parting, of course, sadly). :(
That is the advantage of having a 'slightly receding' hairline
mattydj50
22-02-2021, 10:16 PM
My stepdaughter is a hairdresser. Who doesn't do men's hair. Or lady's either according to her mother.
Now, where's the lawnmower?
Imagine
22-02-2021, 10:41 PM
I'm currently doing a Wild Man Of Borneo lookalike.
Isn't that your normal look? :sofa:
Got to admit - I'm close to going with a ponytail at the moment :o
Excalibur
23-02-2021, 06:11 AM
Isn't that your normal look? :sofa:
Nah mate, as Darren once said," The Mad Professor " look. :D
Got to admit - I'm close to going with a ponytail at the moment :o
And we all know what's underneath a Ponytail, don't we? :whistle::p:)
DeckstarDeluxe
24-02-2021, 10:44 AM
Thanks to the strong winds down here and rather poo genes I get haircuts for free :D
ppentertainments
25-02-2021, 05:31 PM
Anyone got suggestions of how to lose a years worth of lockdown weight in a few months :daft::daft::daft:
Marc J
25-02-2021, 06:46 PM
In case you missed it - Every Little Helps (https://www.forum.mobilediscodirectory.co.uk/showthread.php?44889-Post-COVID-Return-Free-Directory-Verification&p=673292#post673292), as they say!
rth_discos
01-04-2021, 10:01 PM
Insurers are often good places to see what 'risk' is ahead.
There's obviously been lots of talk about the 'mass reopening' this summer.
I notice behind the scenes, that the entertainment industry is becoming increasingly less confident about reopening.
A number of festivals and theatres have asked for the Government to underwrite insurance for them in case they are forced to close again, despite having incurred costs selling tickets for shows this summer.
The Government have refused to underwrite any such insurance, and naturally, the insurance companies themselves won't touch it with a bargepole.
I think their refusal to underwrite the insurance for these entertainment sectors tells me everything I need to know about this summer.
Still mildly optimistic, but still preparing myself for the worst to occur again this summer... (I sadly, still predict limited weddings this summer without evening entertainment).
Imagine
01-04-2021, 11:08 PM
This is what's worrying and confusing me.
NOT a politically motivated response in any way, shape or form, but the fact that GOVUK aren't prepared to back the entertainment industry in any way such as underwriting the big festivals (the cost is a drop in the ocean in the grand scheme of things) suggests that they're unlikely to be allowed to go ahead this year.
That doesn't bode well for us little men at the bottom of the stack sadly. I can see the remaining bookings I have for this year eventually ebbing away and either moving to next year or cancelling completely.
All this despite falling deaths, vaccines which are reported to be 90+% effective at stopping this thing in its tracks, and a public which are desperate to return to the normality they remember from a couple of years ago.
I have very little confidence in things returning to normal this year at the moment. The scientists are still insisting things like distancing and masks are here for a couple or more years yet....and that alone is going to kill what we do.
The annoying bit is, the government don't seem to be able to distinguish between a "wedding reception" (you know....the evening party), and a "wedding breakfast" and seem to use the former to describe the latter at every opportunity.
Something's not adding up in my little brain cell
Will 21/6/21 be the date to remember in the diary? Sadly, I don't think so :(
We'll have to wait and see what the test events they're planning (I think nightclubs in Liverpool and Manchester from memory) throw up...but I personally suspect just a couple of transmissions from those will be enough to slow things down and put a stop to any grand re-opening on 21st June....just my personal thoughts....
Excalibur
02-04-2021, 07:56 AM
I bet your glass is always half empty too, Wayne. :( ( Like me if I remember, it's usually drained to the dregs :beer1: )
Don't be a prophet of doom! As I opined somewhere earlier, I don't think the general public will tolerate another summer lockdown/restriction of liberties. The amount of enquiries I'm seeing for events that are still technically not allowed is amazing. Now whether as upright, law abiding, morally blameless citizens we decide to work at them.........................:whistle:
Young Vectis reckoned there's a tidal surge of bookings pressurising the dam, and at some point soon, the dam will have to become a sluice, at the very least. There will be work, I'm sure, but perhaps not as big events as usual, and as many. I'm ready, I've got my Maui GO's now, for the small weddings. ;) ( Interestingly, Maui have started a new sales pitch. On the side of the box, it proclaims proudly that it's for events of 100 people. While I'd agree entirely with that claim for a pair, because I've done it often, to achieve it with just one? :confused: ).
Imagine
03-04-2021, 10:38 PM
I bet your glass is always half empty too, Wayne. :( ( Like me if I remember, it's usually drained to the dregs :beer1: )
You've been drinking with me....it's ALWAYS full and KEEPS being refilled :beer1:
Don't be a prophet of doom! As I opined somewhere earlier, I don't think the general public will tolerate another summer lockdown/restriction of liberties. The amount of enquiries I'm seeing for events that are still technically not allowed is amazing. Now whether as upright, law abiding, morally blameless citizens we decide to work at them.........................:whistle:
Not being a prophet of doom at all sadly....just a realist.
I see a lot of real human beings on a daily basis, ranging over a LOT of age ranges, some of them even trying to reorganise weddings (it's amazing what you can learn in the 8-10 mins I'm allowed on a customer's doorstep!)
Whilst I absolutely agree that the general public aren't going to tolerate another summer of restrictions (they're acting like it's all over already), I also don't believe they'll be daft enough to try to organise any sort of party (wedding or otherwise) - the press are far too quick to jump onto the fact that a DJ has been involved somewhere along the line.
Not scientific by any means, but the vast majority of them really don't believe that what we do for a living is going to be back anytime soon, despite the rhetoric from Westminster, and nobody I've spoken to believes the 21st June as the end to all restrictions.
I also work with several fellow wedding professionals ('toggers, band members, another DJ and a venue decorator....and at work we're really not the willy wavers you talk to on the likes of Facebook) - and we're all pretty much in agreement that 2021 is another write off.
Sorry to relieve myself on your fire pit but....
Young Vectis reckoned there's a tidal surge of bookings pressurising the dam, and at some point soon, the dam will have to become a sluice, at the very least. There will be work, I'm sure, but perhaps not as big events as usual, and as many. I'm ready, I've got my Maui GO's now, for the small weddings. ;) ( Interestingly, Maui have started a new sales pitch. On the side of the box, it proclaims proudly that it's for events of 100 people. While I'd agree entirely with that claim for a pair, because I've done it often, to achieve it with just one? :confused: ).
Yes, I agree....there WILL eventually be a massive pent-up demand and I'm ready and waiting to be there. However, I think a lot of people are waiting for things to be more concrete before committing to anything, as indeed I am myself. I've turned away to June weddings today alone because I really can't see them going ahead as they're planning them (guest counts of 100+, bands, dancing.....).
As for the Maui Go's - as soon as funds permit I'll have a second one in the store because they just WORK when needed, and for kids parties which I can see will be the majority of the quick fire bookings this year....they'll be more than ideal :)
DeckstarDeluxe
04-04-2021, 09:03 AM
Sorry but why on the earth would you be turning down work and then saying 2021 is a write off? Makes zero sense.
ppentertainments
04-04-2021, 02:28 PM
My concern lately is that when we do return we won't have moved forward at all from where we left off.
Already DJ groups are taken over by people wondering what to buy next, rather than building a business, couples are looking for the cheapest, venues similar and DJs moaning about prices.
I really hoped it would give everyone a bit of a wake up call, but seems most are just going to carry on what they have always been doing.
Excalibur
04-04-2021, 05:40 PM
Sorry but why on the earth would you be turning down work and then saying 2021 is a write off? Makes zero sense.
I like this boy. He'll go far. ;):) Yup Neil, I agree.
My concern lately is that when we do return we won't have moved forward at all from where we left off.
Already DJ groups are taken over by people wondering what to buy next, rather than building a business, couples are looking for the cheapest, venues similar and DJs moaning about prices.
I really hoped it would give everyone a bit of a wake up call, but seems most are just going to carry on what they have always been doing.
Were I not a pillar* of the moderating team, my response would be** " plus ça change.........................", but obviously because of rule 23, I can't do that. ;):whistle:
Chris, "if it ain't broke.................". By the way, have I told you what I bought recently? :)
OK Peter, take the pills: I'm taking work in June this year, as I believe that we will be allowed to operate some form of disco ( small PA, very few if any lights ) legally. Maybe still less than fifty guests for a loooong time. Steady as she goes.
Chris, the smart ones will not only adapt, but adapt ahead of the curve. I don't claim to be one of those, but I sure as eggs is eggs can offer a range of options, not just the same old, same old.
* The word has six letters, not seven. :Naughty:
** For those unfamiliar with either the phrase, or how to Google it, the translation is: " The more things change, the more they remain the same". It's often very true.
EDIT: This would back up Wayne's view. (https://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/19206654.heartbreak-brides-grange-hotel-york-axes-weddings/?fbclid=IwAR2Iu83hklGyRsZXZxbupdh95Nb9IM1UH0_0LS72 bSr2wL7AbjhiUVh1hFI) A big problem could easily be finding venues to work in. :(
Imagine
05-04-2021, 11:45 PM
Sorry but why on the earth would you be turning down work and then saying 2021 is a write off? Makes zero sense.
Depends on where your "head" is unfortunately.
The past year has hit me mentally like a blimmin' steam train at full pelt. I'd spent literally YEARS (I was a part-timer from 1988 until 2019), planning to go full time and then 11 months in....well, we all know what happened on 23rd March 2020.
I suffer from anxiety and depression, whilst the dear lady wife is clinically vulnerable to Covid. I'm also a carer for my elderly and vulnerable in-laws. All in all, last year was a mental nightmare seeing everything I'd worked so hard for being pulled from underneath me (I went to some very dark places I don't even want to talk about last year, and it scares me a LOT even now we're coming through the other side of things...hopefully!).
From where I sit....
I still can't handle the stress of the cancellations/reschedules/crying brides from last year (sorry....it's a fact of life). I'm being VERY cautious about taking new bookings for 2021 because even though we now have a "roadmap", we've sort of been here before with things re-opening and then closing down again. Sorry, but I really don't think that June 21st is the magical date that Covid "does one".
I've got several for July this year (which I'm still not entirely convinced will happen), and I'm taking bookings very cautiously from August onwards.
I can sort of afford to be cautious. I now have a full time job (if you can call it that) delivering online groceries which is keeping a roof over our heads and the business in hibernation. It's not going to make me rich by any means at minimum wage (ONE evening reception = a 40 hours of driving a Mercedes box van around), but we're surviving and not going without. That's important!
As much as I'm itching to get back to what I love doing for a living though, I need to be certain that the events will actually go ahead because I really can't be doing with the mental health issues of everything going belly up again.
Sounds a little weak and pathetic I know, but that's just how life is at the moment :(
Hopefully sometime really soon, we'll all be comparing setups, dance floor health and prices again. Until then....I'm biding my time and trying to stay SANE!
ppentertainments
06-04-2021, 03:31 PM
Depends on where your "head" is unfortunately.
The past year has hit me mentally like a blimmin' steam train at full pelt. I'd spent literally YEARS (I was a part-timer from 1988 until 2019), planning to go full time and then 11 months in....well, we all know what happened on 23rd March 2020.
I suffer from anxiety and depression, whilst the dear lady wife is clinically vulnerable to Covid. I'm also a carer for my elderly and vulnerable in-laws. All in all, last year was a mental nightmare seeing everything I'd worked so hard for being pulled from underneath me (I went to some very dark places I don't even want to talk about last year, and it scares me a LOT even now we're coming through the other side of things...hopefully!).
From where I sit....
I still can't handle the stress of the cancellations/reschedules/crying brides from last year (sorry....it's a fact of life). I'm being VERY cautious about taking new bookings for 2021 because even though we now have a "roadmap", we've sort of been here before with things re-opening and then closing down again. Sorry, but I really don't think that June 21st is the magical date that Covid "does one".
I've got several for July this year (which I'm still not entirely convinced will happen), and I'm taking bookings very cautiously from August onwards.
I can sort of afford to be cautious. I now have a full time job (if you can call it that) delivering online groceries which is keeping a roof over our heads and the business in hibernation. It's not going to make me rich by any means at minimum wage (ONE evening reception = a 40 hours of driving a Mercedes box van around), but we're surviving and not going without. That's important!
As much as I'm itching to get back to what I love doing for a living though, I need to be certain that the events will actually go ahead because I really can't be doing with the mental health issues of everything going belly up again.
Sounds a little weak and pathetic I know, but that's just how life is at the moment :(
Hopefully sometime really soon, we'll all be comparing setups, dance floor health and prices again. Until then....I'm biding my time and trying to stay SANE!
To be honest I don't blame you one bit and can see where you are coming from. The thought did go through my head at one point to totally relaunch in 2022 and not take any booking until then. The reality however was with well over 100 bookings still in the diary for 2021 it wasn't worth doing so.
I have stopped taking bookings for this year though, there is enough in already and means I can concentrate on picking up business for my other (covid enforced) business which should result in 2022 having 2 businesses and more importantly - 2 businesses which will provide an income without me 'working' should I wish.
Yes, people say I am pessimistic, but I do think also we cannot discount any further restrictions this winter. Quite obvious should things get worse we will be the first to close and the warning shots have already been fired. I certainly think anyone with a job would be wise to hold onto that job for another 12 months at least.
Excalibur
06-04-2021, 07:35 PM
Without copying both the previous posts and replying in detail, let's just say:
Wayne, I think I have an idea of where you're coming from. My cunning plan for 2020 onwards was to concentrate on the Disco business, and slowly wind down the day job. I'm full of these genius ideas. :daft: I'm really looking forward to getting back to work as a DJ.
Chris, the one thing that this last year has shown us is that if your whole income depends on a business that's deemed non-essential, you're likely to struggle. I've been unbelievably lucky that from the kick off, a neighbour decided to build a new shed to replace two old ones, and I got the contract to demolish the old ones, and help with building the new one. That kept me local, and earning money.
Two separate income streams now looks like a very good idea.
ppentertainments
07-04-2021, 02:54 PM
Two separate income streams now looks like a very good idea.
Nail on the head.
I think moving forward we (should) have learned that maybe we are not as important or essential as we first thought.
A lot of people are really risking things too, especially those who market 'themselves'. I have wondered for years what people would do if they seriously injured themselves and was out of action for a number of months - all things which are less of a concern with a 'proper' job or another passive income stream.
I was totally amazed at how many of the supposed high fliers were the first to panic when all this kicked off.
Excalibur
07-04-2021, 04:19 PM
I think moving forward we (should) have learned that maybe we are not as important or essential as we first thought.
I won't say I disagree with that view, but I do need to qualify it. We are very important to the success of a " normal " wedding celebration, with all the bells and whistles, and more than a handful of guests.
What we're far less important to is the one with fifteen guests, no dancefloor/dancing, and an early finish ( mainly cos without us, everybody slopes off early).
A lot of people are really risking things too, especially those who market 'themselves'. I have wondered for years what people would do if they seriously injured themselves and was out of action for a number of months - all things which are less of a concern with a 'proper' job or another passive income stream.
Well thanks a lot, pal! That was the idea behind my imminent website revamp, to showcase me, and not the Aladdin's Cave of kit I own. :(
The answer to the second line is Insurance. ( Or should be).
When you say " proper " job, well Hairdressers, Pubs and Travel Agents are all " proper jobs " which have suffered very badly in Lockdown/Pandemic, so again, more qualification needed, I suspect. :p
I was totally amazed at how many of the supposed high fliers were the first to panic when all this kicked off.
Now, I wasn't. High earnings can often lead the people earning them to underestimate the need to plan for a " rainy Day ", and by heavens we've had a chuffing flood! When you've been used to a high income, having it removed effectively overnight is a big culture shock.
rth_discos
07-04-2021, 07:50 PM
I was totally amazed at how many of the supposed high fliers were the first to panic when all this kicked off.
High earnings can often lead the people earning them to underestimate the need to plan for a " rainy Day ", and by heavens we've had a chuffing flood! When you've been used to a high income, having it removed effectively overnight is a big culture shock.
Don't confuse 'high fliers' with 'high earners'.
I'd had an inkling for a while that some of those who claimed to charge the highest fees were the ones who weren't actually earning that much in profit.
There's a few I can see who were doing well - but also many who were spending out on costs as quick as they were getting it in.
The annual trip to Las Vegas alone I couldn't see the ROI of... maybe 1 trip a decade ago did it, but there's only so much of that you can do.
As the old saying goes, turnover is vanity, profit is sanity.
And I think many of the DJs with the highest profits are the ones who are largely relatively quiet, and just get on with their business.
A lot of people are really risking things too, especially those who market 'themselves'. I have wondered for years what people would do if they seriously injured themselves and was out of action for a number of months - all things which are less of a concern with a 'proper' job or another passive income stream.
It was a dilemma I juggled many times. I knew the only way to scale the business was to grow it through other DJs. But I just couldn't bring myself to do that - mainly because all I could foresee was a headache ahead! I wasn't sure I wanted to be in a position to get a phone call at 5pm on a Saturday from a DJ who was 'ill' etc.
That was right at the tipping point for me in 2017/18 when I'd made the transition into earning a full time income from DJ'ing and then decided I didn't want to rely on it full time because of what was required to grow it further - it wasn't an avenue that was exciting me. I could see a ceiling to how much that could be earnt and I was struggling to get the numbers to show a profit that could reach over £30k per year in a best case scenario as a sole operator in the model I wanted to operate.
Benny Smyth
07-04-2021, 09:44 PM
The beautiful thing about this pandemic is that if you want to believe in something, there will be at least one scientific study to back you up.
Lockdown until 2025? These scientists reckon so. The pandemic ended last summer? Here's that study for you.
Herd immunity the best solution? Nearly there, my friend. Nearly there. (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/07/exclusive-britain-will-pass-covid-herd-immunity-threshold-monday/)
Imagine
08-04-2021, 12:42 AM
It was a dilemma I juggled many times. I knew the only way to scale the business was to grow it through other DJs. But I just couldn't bring myself to do that - mainly because all I could foresee was a headache ahead! I wasn't sure I wanted to be in a position to get a phone call at 5pm on a Saturday from a DJ who was 'ill' etc.
That was right at the tipping point for me in 2017/18 when I'd made the transition into earning a full time income from DJ'ing and then decided I didn't want to rely on it full time because of what was required to grow it further - it wasn't an avenue that was exciting me. I could see a ceiling to how much that could be earnt and I was struggling to get the numbers to show a profit that could reach over £30k per year in a best case scenario as a sole operator in the model I wanted to operate.
I market the show as being "ME". It's ME they hire, it's ME they talk to, it's ME they're trusting for their day, and until the world stopped turning....it worked, and worked very well. I have several industry colleagues in my area who do exactly the same (all now incidentally delivering shopping or parcels in one form or another :o ).
Yes, things can and do go wrong....life happens and touch wood so far, I've NEVER let anyone down. Even in my current day job, I've spent the past three weeks humping tonnes of shopping around on a cracked rib (wince :cry:)....I just don't give in that easily (I've DJ'd with worse too, just taken an assistant to do the setting up and tearing down). I also have a broken finger which is creating merry Hell, but hey....I've got a job to do and I'm going to do it because that's just how I work.
My plan back in 2019 was to earn £25k for the first year (a gross of £30k of bookings), rising to £30k profit this year. It's a comfortable living and perfectly achievable. Yes, I've earned considerably more in other careers, and indeed earn a LOT less in my current position. I've never wanted to be rich....just comfortable enough to do what I want to do. Let's face it, DJing for a couple of days/evenings a week isn't hard work (really...it ISN'T) and the fees I normally charge are more than a week's wages to most of my clients. If nothing else, this whole situation has opened my eyes to how a lot of people actually survive and made me appreciate that when they book me, it's a massive commitment! (I may indulge myself in a separate thread on this one!)
However, I feel those days are gone for the time being (sorry....being a pessimist but at the same time, a realist again).
The mention of those big hitters reminds me of just how many of the proper full-timers who haven't diversified, taken on another job and expected SEISS to support them are now sweating at the merest hint of a couple cancelling on them and demanding their already paid-in-full-six-months-in-advance fee back (they don't have the money in the bank to do it....just search the wedding industry support Facebook groups).
My personal plan now is to continue doing what I'm doing possibly on a three-day week basis (Mon-Wed evenings), which will cover the bills and provide a security blanket should things go wrong again (I can always increase my hours if needs be), and then spend the weekends on weddings. Plus that way, I still get a pension of sorts and staff discount on my shopping :beer1:
As much as that pains me because I really wanted to be a full-timer and worked so damned hard to get there, it's not feasible at the moment and as has already been proven, our chosen industry can be closed down indefinitely overnight at the drop of a bat (spelling mistake intended!).
Yes, I could go it alone as a software engineer, SEO or web designer (all of which I've got 20+ years commercial experience at) and earn a heck of a lot more money....but do ya know what? I don't need the stress of all of that right now. Maybe in the future....who knows?
Until then, I'm more than likely going back to being a weekend warrior and enjoy the stress-free lifestyle.
rth_discos
08-04-2021, 07:13 AM
I market the show as being "ME". It's ME they hire, it's ME they talk to, it's ME they're trusting for their day, and until the world stopped turning....it worked, and worked very well. I have several industry colleagues in my area who do exactly the same (all now incidentally delivering shopping or parcels in one form or another :o ).
Yes, things can and do go wrong....life happens and touch wood so far, I've NEVER let anyone down. Even in my current day job, I've spent the past three weeks humping tonnes of shopping around on a cracked rib (wince :cry:)....I just don't give in that easily (I've DJ'd with worse too, just taken an assistant to do the setting up and tearing down). I also have a broken finger which is creating merry Hell, but hey....I've got a job to do and I'm going to do it because that's just how I work.
My plan back in 2019 was to earn £25k for the first year (a gross of £30k of bookings), rising to £30k profit this year. It's a comfortable living and perfectly achievable.
Exactly where I was at - I was confident promoting ME because I knew what I would deliver and had confidence in them trusting me to look after their day. I couldn't bring myself to scale it beyond me - because I felt it lost what my business was all about!
I think 25-30k profit is very doable and realistic in a year - but I struggled to see how you can comfortably break that and scale upwards. And that was simply me wanting to do more over the next 20 years before I retire - I needed a business that would provide me with a retirement plan, and I couldn't see that through being a DJ.
If things do go to plan this year and we do see that light at the end of the tunnel materialise, I think you could find 'normality' returns quite quickly - if we get a decent summer this year, then next year will be business as usual. However, I too am prepared to just wait and see what happens first - I fear we've still got a long way to go to achieve that 'decent summer' this year.
Imagine
09-04-2021, 12:46 AM
I think 25-30k profit is very doable and realistic in a year - but I struggled to see how you can comfortably break that and scale upwards. And that was simply me wanting to do more over the next 20 years before I retire - I needed a business that would provide me with a retirement plan, and I couldn't see that through being a DJ.
Oh, it's doable - it's what I very nearly had on the books for 2020. It's probably the reason everything's hit me so hard mentally...I was sooooo nearly there!
If things do go to plan this year and we do see that light at the end of the tunnel materialise, I think you could find 'normality' returns quite quickly - if we get a decent summer this year, then next year will be business as usual. However, I too am prepared to just wait and see what happens first - I fear we've still got a long way to go to achieve that 'decent summer' this year.
And THIS is the problem in my eyes. I really can't see normal this year (at the moment....it may change...who knows)
They're going to be "testing" nightclubs and the like in May (I think). Surely that's going to be a load of 20-somethings with no immunity, no jab, and Covid is going to run riot....ergo...we can't return (because those tests are going to dictate when we can work as normal again. Hopefully they'll think to test something like a 50th birthday where the majority of the guests have had the shot and see how that works out too?
In other news - feeling a LOT more positive today. I applied for an ARG a few weeks back without really thinking I'd get anywhere because let's face it, I've had naff all support so far. £5k hits my business bank account tomorrow morning (yeah - I'm shocked too!). That's enough to keep things ticking over without stressing about when we return for the next 18-24 months :)
I may actually get some quality sleep tonight :)
ppentertainments
09-04-2021, 07:39 AM
I think 25-30k profit is very doable and realistic in a year - but I struggled to see how you can comfortably break that and scale upwards. And that was simply me wanting to do more over the next 20 years before I retire - I needed a business that would provide me with a retirement plan, and I couldn't see that through being a DJ.
It is the retirement plan which is urging me towards maybe getting a job and going back to DJing part-time. I met with a financial advisor and realistically if I want a decent pension like I could get if receiving a decent workplace pension, the amount I would have to pay in just wouldn't happen - maybe I am not strict enough.
On the other side though, DJing has enabled me to buy a few houses, sit mortgage free etc so maybe that is the way forward.
£25-£30k profit is very doable - for most it just depends on how much they waste on kit they don't need.
ppentertainments
09-04-2021, 07:43 AM
And THIS is the problem in my eyes. I really can't see normal this year (at the moment....it may change...who knows)
They're going to be "testing" nightclubs and the like in May (I think). Surely that's going to be a load of 20-somethings with no immunity, no jab, and Covid is going to run riot....ergo...we can't return (because those tests are going to dictate when we can work as normal again. Hopefully they'll think to test something like a 50th birthday where the majority of the guests have had the shot and see how that works out too?
I learned the other day that the modelling and data they are currently using is based on 3 nights at a nightclub in KOREA :confused::confused:
So far there has been little to suggest either birthdays or weddings are going to be used as trials in the near future. I know the weddings taskforce are facing a huge uphill struggle to get any answers. Realistically though, such events simply won't have any social distancing so may be a bit of a longer wait - I even think nightclubs etc will be safer than a wedding if looking at it realistically.
Benny Smyth
09-04-2021, 10:49 AM
The weddings taskforce confirmed yesterday that weddings will be part of the event research programme.
ppentertainments
09-04-2021, 10:56 AM
The weddings taskforce confirmed yesterday that weddings will be part of the event research programme.
Yes, but not sure at what capacity, numbers, venue type etc.
There are 100's of pilot events being planned but how many go ahead is anyones guess.
Benny Smyth
09-04-2021, 12:15 PM
Yes, but not sure at what capacity, numbers, venue type etc.
If 6,000 people are going to attend a nightclub in Liverpool across two nights, then I would dare say that a wedding at 50% capacity isn't that much of a stretch.
The important thing is that we're actually part of the game, and it's not like they're going to do a singular 10-person outdoor wedding on a windy day sitting on top of the white cliffs of Dover, because the only data they'll get from that is that Covid-19 doesn't spread at weddings. I would dare say that they'll push their luck a little bit and have a couple of 'typical' weddings, just to see what happens. With a test before and after the event, along with vaccines and track and trace, stamping out an outbreak would be [relatively] easy to do.
Personally, I think the House Of Commons should be part of the trial. Not in a Sceptical 'alright, you lot take the vaccine first' kinda way, but if you can reduce the risk of an outbreak with the footfall and available space in that chamber, you can do it pretty much anywhere.
Jim - Scotland's Party DJ
19-04-2021, 05:22 PM
Weird situation just now. I've booked a handful of almost 4 figure fee weddings for September (one dude is convinced he's having 200 evening guests) whilst everyone earlier in the Summer is slowly trickling in trying to push back to next year (again!) or cancel completely.
I can't :Censored::Censored::Censored::Censored:ing wait to be past the guess work with what a wedding is going to look like.
ppentertainments
19-04-2021, 07:35 PM
Weird situation just now. I've booked a handful of almost 4 figure fee weddings for September (one dude is convinced he's having 200 evening guests) whilst everyone earlier in the Summer is slowly trickling in trying to push back to next year (again!) or cancel completely.
I can't :Censored::Censored::Censored::Censored:ing wait to be past the guess work with what a wedding is going to look like.
I 'should' have now had my last postponement/cancellation due to Covid.
Not yet deleting the email response I use though - 2 weeks ago I would say it will be all go from end June, now though I am getting really sceptical.
Excalibur
19-04-2021, 10:18 PM
I 'should' have now had my last postponement/cancellation due to Covid.
Not yet deleting the email response I use though - 2 weeks ago I would say it will be all go from end June, now though I am getting really sceptical.
Blimey, it's being so cheerful that keeps you lot going, isn't it? :whistle::p
Simple logic dictates that there's a limit to how long you can keep parts of the economy mothballed before they can't be restarted. We must be approaching that in many parts of Hospitality. I'm convinced restrictions will be eased, but not all at once, it will be staged.
My clients seem to think that August is safe, and I have a mid June one ( recently) booked, albeit a tiny one.
Green shoots of recovery anyone? :shrug:
Imagine
19-04-2021, 11:25 PM
Blimey, it's being so cheerful that keeps you lot going, isn't it? :whistle::
Cheerfulness has long since left the building I'm afraid. I actually got excited tonight because I got to use the tannoy at work....a real life microphone!!!! It's been a while.
Simple logic dictates that there's a limit to how long you can keep parts of the economy mothballed before they can't be restarted.
We must be approaching that in many parts of Hospitality. I'm convinced restrictions will be eased, but not all at once, it will be staged.
And this is the problem. LOTS of venues in this neck of the woods are starting to go belly up and closing down. It's actually starting to get quite scary.
My clients seem to think that August is safe, and I have a mid June one ( recently) booked, albeit a tiny one.
I've got a lot for July. Do I think they'll go ahead this year? Hmmmm......
Green shoots of recovery anyone? :shrug:
Um....not yet (and I still remember that being said by Mr Lamont and going a bit pear shaped at the time)
I work as you all probably know with several wedding type people delivering online shopping (will this nightmare ever end?). I was talking to a photographer colleague last night whilst waiting for the shift to finally grind round to clocking out time and his experience is very similar to what I'm seeing at the moment (and this may only be specific to our geographical area....we're both normally very busy when things are allowed to happen)
There was a real spike in enquiries when the "roadmap" was first mentioned, and yet things have completely died again since then, despite deaths and cases dropping like a stone, the roadmap happening as originally forecast, and test events going ahead soon.
My website (and indeed his) is like a ghost-town and I can't remember the last time somebody asked if I was available for whatever they're planning on celebrating.
I'm not overly worried at the moment (unlike him who is looking at losing his house by next Chrimbo if things carry on as they are). I was lucky enough to finally get an ARG which will see the business through for a couple more years if necessary without actually going on the road. I'd much rather the green shoots started appearing sooner rather than later though because I'm getting really tired of driving a Sprinter box around for 9 hours a day :o
rth_discos
20-04-2021, 07:29 AM
Expect the new buzz word to be T Cells... this seems to be the aspect that means the vaccine we are receiving will enable immunity against the variants, where the antibodies may be less effective against the variant.
I think over the coming weeks we'll get an idea as to the impact of the Brazil/South African/Indian variants that have entered the country and could spread now we're opening up.
I'm increasingly feeling the general consensus is becoming that this is something we start to 'live with'. I'm not 100% sure of my stance, but I am still fairly optimistic for June 21st. I think our biggest hurdle won't be the ability to work - I can see things opening up - but more how effective what we do is. I'm just not sure we'll get the busy dancefloors we're used to. After a whole year of this, I think it will take time for everyone to be confident about mingling in close proximity. We also need to see what stance people have with the facemask - how many will carry on wearing one. So, yes, we might be working. But the result of what we do may feel a little underwhelming and unsatisfying for a while.
I was lucky enough to finally get an ARG which will see the business through for a couple more years if necessary without actually going on the road.
I assume you're now also eligible for the SEISS Grant 4 that opens up later this week?
ppentertainments
20-04-2021, 08:08 AM
Blimey, it's being so cheerful that keeps you lot going, isn't it? :whistle::p
Simple logic dictates that there's a limit to how long you can keep parts of the economy mothballed before they can't be restarted.
I am not one who is against the Government, or think there is any hidden agenda (and yes I have always voted Tory but don't shoot me) but I can't help thinking this is the plan. If you look at the support received, some sectors have been very well supported - in fact a lot have made a lot of money out of this - whereas others have received nothing. Also the reasoning for keeping certain sectors closed, and making others adapt is very questionable.
You can go to work in manufacturing, in crowded factories etc - but can't sit inside a pub for a pint after work ??
I will likely be wrong, but I think they are trying to change hospitality to a more continental approach. Sitting outside with a pint or a coffee instead of going out to get hammered as quickly as possible.
I can only speak really for the wedding industry, but where is the logic of being allowed to go to a marquee in a pub, with 50% capacity, 2 open sides - then the next night hold your wedding in the same marquee with only 15 people and 3 open sides ?
My belief is that we are the ones that will be screwed over - I can see come 21st June weddings being allowed, unlimited number BUT no dancing, loud music etc.
Hopefully I am wrong, but as yet there is little proof as to why weddings have be so severely restricted with no support or guidance at all, yet is the one industry where people really do need to plan in advance. You can open a pub in 24 hours, but can't organise a wedding in such a short space in time.
ppentertainments
20-04-2021, 08:10 AM
We also need to see what stance people have with the facemask - how many will carry on wearing one.
After a trip to London and a journey on the Tube, the state of some peoples masks make me question what s:Censored::Censored:t is coming out of their mouths when they exhale so I may carry on wearing one haha
Vectis
20-04-2021, 10:26 AM
where is the logic of being allowed to go to a marquee in a pub, with 50% capacity, 2 open sides - then the next night hold your wedding in the same marquee with only 15 people and 3 open sides ?
Presumably something to do with the increased likelihood of a wedding crowd all hugging and slobbering over each other, whereas the general public are unlikely to be quite so liberal.
Imagine
20-04-2021, 10:31 AM
Presumably something to do with the increased likelihood of a wedding crowd all hugging and slobbering over each other, whereas the general public are unlikely to be quite so liberal.
That was my thinking originally.
However, having driven past a fair few busy boozers over the past 10 days since they opened, the crowd control at the majority of them leaves a lot to be desired. The gardens are crowded, people standing and shouting at each other to be heard, standing close together....it's just like the average wedding from what I've seen.
Oh, and the number of pubs where the marquee has all sides closed once the chilly night air starts to take hold is unbelievable!
Nakatomi
20-04-2021, 09:29 PM
Presumably something to do with the increased likelihood of a wedding crowd all hugging and slobbering over each other, whereas the general public are unlikely to be quite so liberal.
Ah yes but the big difference with weddings is, they generally come with a ready-made track & trace list. Come to think about it.. that being the case then why are weddings so sidelined compared to pubs? Hmmm.
Without dragging the dreaded politics topic into this too much hopefully - it's not hard to spot a correlation between industries that the government are supporting vs those getting nothing. Hospitality and entertainment.. zip all... but if you're an airline with a history of making party donations etc, here's a nice handout..
Imagine
21-04-2021, 12:35 AM
WOW! What a day. Three enquires in one day :)
First one, a kids party who's convinced that since soft play is allowed on 15th May that I can do a full on 7 year old party at the end of May with 30 guests and parents (no, sorry....not happening - even if it IS outside). She's optimistically (after a lot of explaining of rules and laws) booked for the end of June.
Second, a wedding in November....:Censored: that date's already booked and we'll be back in restrictions by then because this Covid thing loves the winter and being indoors.
Third, wedding for a family I've done plenty of stuff for over the years (birthdays, engagements etc) and looking at next July....much more sensible :)
And yes Justin - I agree with the ready-made test and trace information and have had that thought for a very long time and indeed mentioned it to my MP several months ago...it fell on deaf ears as always :(
It's just a shame the various DJ associations aren't fighting our corner on this sort of thing and helping us to re-open rather than promoting how to live-stream (and we ALL know there's no money in that!)
<rant mode on>My biggest frustration at the moment is that the Government don't seem to be able to differentiate between a wedding breakfast (i.e. guests seated and eating) and a wedding RECEPTION (rammed dance floor, late night drinking etc.). They keep saying "receptions" of up-to XYZ number of people when they really mean the meal after the legal bits </rant mode nearly off>
Not going political myself but two takeouts from Boris's proclamation this evening (been working late and only just watched the catch up)
* What we do WILL need some sort of "passport" (although they're desperately trying to avoid the use of that word in favour of "certification") - amounts to the same thing and how in the name of all that's Holy will that be policed with marquee weddings in back gardens?
* We're now apparently looking for a Lemsip/Beechams solution to relieve the symptoms....have we REALLY been closed down for 15 months for something which can be treated with a cold/flu type remedy or am I totally misunderstanding everything at the moment?
Sorry - bad shift at "work" and desperately need to see 100+ bodies with arms held aloft but can't for the life of me see an end in sight at the moment or a way back to what we used to call normal :(
ppentertainments
21-04-2021, 07:56 AM
Presumably something to do with the increased likelihood of a wedding crowd all hugging and slobbering over each other, whereas the general public are unlikely to be quite so liberal.
I do agree totally and have always said weddings are a danger, however 11pm in a pub marquee (with closed sides as it is so cold) you see people dancing along to the loud music being played, mixing outside of their tables of 6 and, yes, hugging and kissing. You only need to drive by a few places to see this.
The warning shots were fired again during last nights press conference - another wave is expected. How this will pan out for us remains to be seen. If I was a little more sceptical I would say weddings will be relaxed, just in time for Mr Johnson and Ms Symonds to tie the knot, then restrictions put back in place for fear of a new wave.
We also have pilot events going ahead. The reopening of the Wedding Industry is dependent on those events - yet there is NO wedding within the pilot events.
I don't know how much more the wedding industry can sustain - I am fully booked this year and almost there next year with even summer 2023 filling up quick, if more weddings have to be postponed I think the industry could be overwhelmed.
ppentertainments
21-04-2021, 07:59 AM
It's just a shame the various DJ associations aren't fighting our corner on this sort of thing and helping us to re-open rather than promoting how to live-stream (and we ALL know there's no money in that!)
To me, that has been the biggest shock this past year. This was the time for associations to stand up and be counted, the rewards would have been unbelievable but the radio silence has been really strange.
They will not know any more than we know, but surely a bit advice, business advice, financial advice, future trend predictions as well as being a HUGE voice would have been the basics.
Vectis
21-04-2021, 09:35 AM
To me, that has been the biggest shock this past year. This was the time for associations to stand up and be counted, the rewards would have been unbelievable but the radio silence has been really strange.
They will not know any more than we know, but surely a bit advice, business advice, financial advice, future trend predictions as well as being a HUGE voice would have been the basics.
I suspect the main part of the problem is the comparatively TINY memberships and miniscule fees of said associations which I feel barely cover the cost of the activities they DO undertake. They're not really industry associations in the true sense relying mainly on the voluntary services of others with full time jobs or careers of their own.
From the most accurate estimates I have, the current membership tally of the largest of the associations is less than 1% of the total "mobile DJs" as we know them in the country (excludes club DJs, radio DJs etc.) Once you take out of the membership fee the cost of providing PLI and magazine subs, putting on a few show nights etc. that doesn't leave an awful lot to fund other things. It's difficult to charge more because DJs won't pay it, and being an unregulated "industry" there's no obligation (or perceived benefit in many cases) to join. So until something happens and the associations have the funding to employ specialists, don't expect anything to change.
DJWilson
21-04-2021, 02:14 PM
The warning shots were fired again during last nights press conference - another wave is expected. How this will pan out for us remains to be seen. If I was a little more sceptical I would say weddings will be relaxed, just in time for Mr Johnson and Ms Symonds to tie the knot, then restrictions put back in place for fear of a new wave.
BoJo tried spreading fear of another wave weeks ago when France and Germany started flaring up again. A lot of what's said/published at this point is scaremongering and not necessary.
He also said there's no reason to amend the roadmap...
Take everything with a pinch of salt.
ppentertainments
21-04-2021, 03:08 PM
BoJo tried spreading fear of another wave weeks ago when France and Germany started flaring up again. A lot of what's said/published at this point is scaremongering and not necessary.
He also said there's no reason to amend the roadmap...
Take everything with a pinch of salt.
Yep and even if there is another wave, if enough are vaccinated we 'should' be able to carry on
rth_discos
22-04-2021, 04:11 PM
2 festivals I've seen cancelled for this summer now - and there may be more.
Boomtown festival is the big one - especially as they received a significant amount of Government funding. Wasn't even due to take place until August.
Also saw a local festival on the Isle of Wight - Rhythymtree (July) has cancelled too.
Apparently there may well be more over the coming days, mainly because they can't get insurance should the event be unable to proceed due to Coronavirus.
ppentertainments
27-04-2021, 08:08 AM
Well, yesterday I started emailing every couple who have booked me, just to confirm Date and Venue to ensure my records were 100% correct.
So far, out of all the replies I have received everyone is confident on going ahead as planned - even the late June and July dates.
At least we know there is public confidence, let's hope it materialises
DJ Max
27-04-2021, 09:35 AM
Hi all
between 17th May and 21st June can we provide Disco entertainment with people dancing indoors or outdoors? I had an enquiry for a 40th Birthday party on 22nd May in a pubs garden but cannot find any clear guidance apart from up to 30 people. Not sure what to do with this:confused:?
What are your opinions?
Thanks
Imagine
27-04-2021, 09:40 AM
Hi all
between 17th May and 21st June can we provide Disco entertainment with people dancing indoors or outdoors? I had an enquiry for a 40th Birthday party on 22nd May in a pubs garden but cannot find any clear guidance apart from up to 30 people. Not sure what to do with this:confused:?
What are your opinions?
Thanks
I think the general consensus on this is that what we do (i.e. loud music and dancing) isn't going to be allowed until 21st June at the earliest. That's certainly the way most people I know are interpreting the rules.
Best best is to contact your local Environmental Health dept and see what they say.
DJ Jules
27-04-2021, 10:33 AM
I think the general consensus on this is that what we do (i.e. loud music and dancing) isn't going to be allowed until 21st June at the earliest. That's certainly the way most people I know are interpreting the rules.
Best best is to contact your local Environmental Health dept and see what they say.
Cue enquiry this morning from "Paddy" (no lie) for Disco, Dancefloor and singer in a marquee for 100 guests on the 17th of May :zip:
Julian
ppentertainments
27-04-2021, 11:00 AM
Hi all
between 17th May and 21st June can we provide Disco entertainment with people dancing indoors or outdoors? I had an enquiry for a 40th Birthday party on 22nd May in a pubs garden but cannot find any clear guidance apart from up to 30 people. Not sure what to do with this:confused:?
What are your opinions?
Thanks
You will need to contact your local authority as each one has different restrictions.
Imagine
28-04-2021, 01:09 AM
2 festivals I've seen cancelled for this summer now - and there may be more.
Boomtown festival is the big one - especially as they received a significant amount of Government funding. Wasn't even due to take place until August.
Also saw a local festival on the Isle of Wight - Rhythymtree (July) has cancelled too.
Apparently there may well be more over the coming days, mainly because they can't get insurance should the event be unable to proceed due to Coronavirus.
OK - the big festivals NEED insurance backing....a lot of money is at stake on those. I totally get why they're cancelling (and I can sort of see why the government won't do the underwriting because at the end of the day, they really don't know much more about this thing than we do (or do they????)
And yet, over in Spain (much worse than us for infections etc.), they've recently run a music event with 5,000 people and only 6 positives as a result (and four of those are believed to have contracted Covid from elsewhere) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56899764?fbclid=IwAR29z8fe9KKXtPdg5dZT5uQcy9lQ3VEf PSJqjKcwKc5kXsLDVgWWs8coA4Y
OK, they wore masks, but social distancing wasn't required. They were also tested before and after the event.
It'll be interesting to see what the Liverpool nightclub tests throw up (without masks) next month....after all, it's THAT event in particular which is going to dictate what WE do. Bear in mind that most of the attendees will be under 40 and will not have had any sort of vaccine...
Well, yesterday I started emailing every couple who have booked me, just to confirm Date and Venue to ensure my records were 100% correct.
So far, out of all the replies I have received everyone is confident on going ahead as planned - even the late June and July dates.
At least we know there is public confidence, let's hope it materialises
I haven't dared to email my July clients...yet. I'm sure at the moment they think their weddings will be going ahead with 150+ in attendance though (because let's face it...that's what the current rhetoric says). We'll have to wait and see what the test events show.
The general public are getting braver and back to what they know as normal. As an example, until the most recent easing of restrictions I was taking a van of groceries on the road at just under a bag of sugar under its legal weight each and every night and delivering until 11:30pm. Since the last easing, online deliveries have died a MASSIVE death and we're normally back in the yard at between 8pm and 9pm (certainly no later than 10pm)....they're going in and doing it themselves!
I'm driving past beer gardens and seeing punters with no masks, talking and shouting at each other over a pint without a mask...it's refreshing but frightening at the same time (sorry....I'm a little nervous of this type of thing at the moment).
Let's face it, daily deaths are in the teens, infections have remained at around 2.5k per day....it looks like things are stabilising.
It's all looking very positive (and I need to speak to my employers about changing my shifts soon...but it's like when I first went full time and I haven't quite got the nerve because I really can't see normal as we knew it a couple of years ago for a while yet).
I'd truly LOVE to be back to doing what we do for a living come June 21st (oh....trust me....I REALLY would). Having spoken to several of my lockdown job colleagues recently, can we see it happening this year? Absolutely not.
There WILL be the requirement for negative tests or vaccinations before and after weddings. Add to that the international travel bans and in my heart of hearts , I can't see a lot happening this year. Who want's a party with a face mask after all?
Just my thoughts and rantings after another very long and boring shift of driving Prosecco and Avacado's around but that's how I think it is for this year :(
Vectis
28-04-2021, 09:51 AM
I think the general availability of lateral flow tests is what will allow a return of 'normal'.
For example, folks heading to the Scottish islands where healthcare facilities are minimal are being urged (but not forced) to take two tests before travelling and calling off their trip if they test positive. Latest stats show these things giving false positives around 0.1% to 3% of the time depending which study you follow, and when general transmission rates are as low as they are, I think this is an acceptable trade-off. You can just walk into a pharmacy and pick up a pack of these for free, or order them online for home delivery.
Given a few more weeks and I reckon small-ish informal gatherings (ie not 1000+ crammed into a small room) will be allowed with a recommendation that every attendee does a couple of these tests in the days leading up to the event and avoiding going if they show positive. Yes, it relies on folks' goodwill to some degree and there will be a handful that ignore the advice or show positive but turn up anyway, but with the most vulnerable folks fully vaxed up by then I think the risk will be deemed acceptable.
Excalibur
28-04-2021, 10:08 AM
I haven't dared to email my July clients...yet. I'm sure at the moment they think their weddings will be going ahead with 150+ in attendance though (because let's face it...that's what the current rhetoric says). We'll have to wait and see what the test events show.
I've got a public booking early July for over a hundred folk. Theoretically. Confirmed , as we speak. Weddings in June, although some are 30 or less.
The general public are getting braver and back to what they know as normal. As an example, until the most recent easing of restrictions I was taking a van of groceries on the road at just under a bag of sugar under its legal weight each and every night and delivering until 11:30pm. Since the last easing, online deliveries have died a MASSIVE death and we're normally back in the yard at between 8pm and 9pm (certainly no later than 10pm)....they're going in and doing it themselves!
Since we were jabbed, Jeanette's back to using Tesco, and I'm allowed to make my pilgrimages to Lidl again, with the " Middle of Lidl" treasure trove. :)
I'm driving past beer gardens and seeing punters with no masks, talking and shouting at each other over a pint without a mask...it's refreshing but frightening at the same time (sorry....I'm a little nervous of this type of thing at the moment).
Let's face it, daily deaths are in the teens, infections have remained at around 2.5k per day....it looks like things are stabilising.
It's all looking very positive (and I need to speak to my employers about changing my shifts soon...but it's like when I first went full time and I haven't quite got the nerve because I really can't see normal as we knew it a couple of years ago for a while yet).
Mainly due to the vaccination programme, I feel. I read the other day that currently, we 'd reached " Herd Immunity " level, so that's good news, and seems to be in line with the numbers.
I'd truly LOVE to be back to doing what we do for a living come June 21st (oh....trust me....I REALLY would). Having spoken to several of my lockdown job colleagues recently, can we see it happening this year? Absolutely not.
Bog off, Cassandra! :p
Actually, that's a moot point, I feel. On the one hand, I reckon: ( price thread alert! ) there will be loads of work about, but much of it at " lower than optimal rates ", so although Wayne's probably right that drawing a living wage from discos and related work isn't possible, making a reasonable additional income will be.
There WILL be the requirement for negative tests or vaccinations before and after weddings. Add to that the international travel bans and in my heart of hearts , I can't see a lot happening this year. Who want's a party with a face mask after all?
Just my thoughts and rantings after another very long and boring shift of driving Prosecco and Avacado's around but that's how I think it is for this year :(
Technically nobody. However, there's a pent up tsunami of parties about to hit, and I'm manning a lifeboat. It's yellow, and it's full of disco kit, for the first time in forever. :party1::banana::jumping::thumbsup::clap::headphon es::DJ:
ppentertainments
28-04-2021, 11:43 AM
I think the general availability of lateral flow tests is what will allow a return of 'normal'.
For example, folks heading to the Scottish islands where healthcare facilities are minimal are being urged (but not forced) to take two tests before travelling and calling off their trip if they test positive. Latest stats show these things giving false positives around 0.1% to 3% of the time depending which study you follow, and when general transmission rates are as low as they are, I think this is an acceptable trade-off. You can just walk into a pharmacy and pick up a pack of these for free, or order them online for home delivery.
Given a few more weeks and I reckon small-ish informal gatherings (ie not 1000+ crammed into a small room) will be allowed with a recommendation that every attendee does a couple of these tests in the days leading up to the event and avoiding going if they show positive. Yes, it relies on folks' goodwill to some degree and there will be a handful that ignore the advice or show positive but turn up anyway, but with the most vulnerable folks fully vaxed up by then I think the risk will be deemed acceptable.
Yep, I agree, testing looks likely to be the way forward, HOWEVER will people be truthful. You do these tests at home, record your results manually, then chuck it in the bin.
What will the likelihood be of a best man, bridesmaid, parents etc testing positive, isolating for 10 days and missing a wedding ? Maybe I am cynical but can't see many - in fact if honest, when back to work if I got a positive test, I would sure as hell do more till I got a negative.
Excalibur
28-04-2021, 02:57 PM
What will the likelihood be of a best man, bridesmaid, parents etc testing positive, isolating for 10 days and missing a wedding ? Maybe I am cynical but can't see many - in fact if honest, when back to work if I got a positive test, I would sure as hell do more till I got a negative.
You're becoming very cynical in your outlook Chris. Old Gits like me might say realistic, of course. :whistle::)
rth_discos
28-04-2021, 03:15 PM
What will the likelihood be of a best man, bridesmaid, parents etc testing positive, isolating for 10 days and missing a wedding ? Maybe I am cynical but can't see many - in fact if honest, when back to work if I got a positive test, I would sure as hell do more till I got a negative.
Exactly - add in the venue staff, photographer, car driver, etc etc - how many of them will cancel on the couple because of a positive test...
Excalibur
28-04-2021, 06:41 PM
Exactly - add in the venue staff, photographer, car driver, etc etc - how many of them will cancel on the couple because of a positive test...
Any/all of them, because they're honest, upstanding, morally praiseworthy pillars of rectitude.
Excuse me Gavin, I've just got to go and refuel The Gloucester Old Spots. :fp::fp::fp::fp::fp::fp:
Imagine
04-05-2021, 10:25 PM
Well...I had a strange call today from HSE (and yes it was genuine, and yes, I was VERY rude to him....sorry but so fed up of not actually knowing when or if we can return to normal now that I let rip at the bureaucratic pen-pushing box-ticking :Censored:).
I got a letter a couple of weeks ago saying they're doing "spot checks" on businesses to ensure that they're Covid secure....today's phone call was my spot check apparently.
Now don't get me wrong, H&S is important but when I can't actually operate....yes I was a little narked at the poor fella.
By his reckoning though, we should be back in business by 21st June. "Yes", says I, "it's what the roadmap says. Tell me, what restrictions will be in place for that date regarding what I do for a living?".
Apparently none according to him. Which prompted the question of why he's wasting my time and a massive rant about how things have been handled.
I have a feeling I might have the words "hostile" and "militant" on my HSE record now. He's apparently going to call me nearer to the 21st June to discuss Covid secure when more details are known (brave man!)
DJ Jules
05-05-2021, 08:33 AM
Which prompted the question of why he's wasting my time and a massive rant about how things have been handled.
Let rip at your MP, not the poor guy who has the thankless task of calling everyone. Yes, it is stupid, but they've just been given a script to follow.
Julian
rth_discos
05-05-2021, 08:37 AM
Tell me, what restrictions will be in place for that date regarding what I do for a living?".
Apparently none according to him.
He's apparently going to call me nearer to the 21st June to discuss Covid secure when more details are known (brave man!)
I'm really confused - this is similar to a number of job adverts I've seen recruiting for Covid Marshalls by local councils, of which the roles start in July..
If there's likely to be no restrictions in place from June 21st, why does he need to call you nearer June 21st to discuss your Covid secure measures post June 21st???
The more I see this, the more I worry about just how many Covid secure enforcement measures are in place for post June 21st...
Imagine
05-05-2021, 09:01 AM
The more I see this, the more I worry about just how many Covid secure enforcement measures are in place for post June 21st...
This is what's starting to worry me as well if I'm honest.
Whilst Boris is happily saying "no measures after 21st June", the scientists are saying there will be a need for distancing and face coverings for a long time to come. Thankfully, Prof Ferguson is hinting that lockdowns are now a thing of the past.
It'll be interesting to see the results of the test events from last weekend even if they weren't realistic to what we do (high ceilings, many thousands of people). My fear is that face coverings at least will be a requirement for the sort of thing we do along with pre/post party testing, and that'll put a lot of people off....if indeed they even do them and if they're honest about the results.
As for MY C19 Secure status.....erm, surely that's going to be down to the licence holder (i.e. the venue) and not me.
rth_discos
05-05-2021, 09:05 AM
Thankfully, Prof Ferguson is hinting that lockdowns are now a thing of the past.
The thing is, we're not in a lockdown now.
Lockdown measures are very strict. So lockdowns being a thing of the past is great, but there's a huge great big chasm between 'no lockdowns' and 'full normality'.
We could remain in this state for 2 years, and still fulfil his claim of 'lockdowns being a thing of the past'.
So yeah, I'm concerned that some restrictions may remain. The Liverpool event will be key. Reading the background of it, it seems the requirements were to have a negative lateral flow test at any point in the 5 days before the event. It only needs a couple of people to have got infected post test (in those last few days) and then super-spread it around the festival...
Time will tell over the coming weeks for the outcome.
Imagine
05-05-2021, 01:54 PM
And in similar news....https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-56992121
The Seychelles have a spike at the moment and most of the population have had two doses of the vaccine :o
Somehow, I can see this going on for a very long time to come :(
rth_discos
05-05-2021, 06:43 PM
And in similar news....https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-56992121
The Seychelles have a spike at the moment and most of the population have had two doses of the vaccine :o
Somehow, I can see this going on for a very long time to come :(
On another note, in the UK we're being told that there's no evidence so far that the Indian B1617 variant is able to evade the vaccines.
Yet in Spain on preferente.com (https://www.preferente.com/noticias-de-hoteles/la-cepa-india-llega-a-espana-y-supone-la-mayor-amenaza-a-la-recuperacion-turistica-309005.html), they say [translated]:
The Galician Health Service (Sergas) has reported that it is the B1.617 subvariant 2 variant, which is sensitive to vaccines.
The Indian variant, with between 13 and 15 mutations, is behind the strong upturn in cases in South Asia, as it shows in laboratory studies evidence of being more contagious and resistant to some vaccines and treatments.
Which worries me that we're not being told the full story...
ppentertainments
05-05-2021, 08:15 PM
Which worries me that we're not being told the full story...
Like in this publication which SAGE agree that transmission within private events is not a risk
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/982865/S1194_Transmission_in_hospitality_retail_leisure.p df
Excalibur
05-05-2021, 08:24 PM
Make the most of this folks, I've taken the tablets, but they wear off quickly. I believe two things are certain.
1) Government will do anything/everything necessary to avoid Lockdown 4.0 ( or whatever number it is ) as they fear civil unrest if we have another. The hospitality industry will wither on the vine, and you will only be able to drink in a 'Spoons, cos every other pub will have closed.
2) Normal. Define " Normal". Like it or not, there's no way that on 21st June, the virus will have categorically been beaten, and we can all mingle willy nilly without masks, sanitising, distancing or other restrictions of some kind. Ain't gonna happen, because of point 1).
There is light at the end of the tunnel, and it's not an oncoming train. It's just a very looooooooong tunnel. :(
Imagine
09-05-2021, 03:41 PM
I don't know if it's because I've had my first "shot" now....but I'm suddenly becoming a lot more confident.....about 2022 ;)
Although I don't pay to reply to them, I'm seeing a lot more Add2 enquiries coming through over the past week, mainly for next year. The ones for this year appear to be very cautious and one even gives mention (in August this year) about not sure whether they'll be allowed to have the numbers they want.
Next year however.....it seems will be the proper recovery in what we do (unless there's some clear guidance released soon saying what's going to be allowed and when)
I've taken three bookings for next October today alone, and the website is starting to get a lot busier that it's been in a very long time!
I've even gone to the trouble of unearthing some lighting from the lockup to play with tonight whilst indulging in a small sherry or two.
Fingers crossed it's not just one of those quick surges that dies over night
rth_discos
09-05-2021, 03:58 PM
I don't know if it's because I've had my first "shot" now....but I'm suddenly becoming a lot more confident.....about 2022 ;)
I'm feeling a sense of Deja Vu here...
MY own personal view...this will be done and dusted by around June and will actually be treated similar to the average seasonal cold or flu.
Who knows, the tail end of 2020 could make it a bumper year
But in all seriousness, I hear that restrictions on hugging are to be lifted from May 17th - which I believe was originally planned for June 21st.
So it looks like the vaccine is working, and restrictions are being lifted quicker than expected.
A good sign for a positive summer this year; and in theory - assuming no further curveballs - a 'normal' summer next year.
Imagine
09-05-2021, 04:08 PM
I'm feeling a sense of Deja Vu here...
Aaaah....if only we'd known then what we know now.
How many of us seriously thought in our wildest dreams we'd be off the road for as long as we have been? :(
But in all seriousness, I hear that restrictions on hugging are to be lifted from May 17th - which I believe was originally planned for June 21st.
So it looks like the vaccine is working, and restrictions are being lifted quicker than expected.
A good sign for a positive summer this year; and in theory - assuming no further curveballs - a 'normal' summer next year.
And there's a scientist giving hints on how to hug safely don't cha know :daft:
Fingers crossed that 21st June really is DDay. I still have a few reservations and I'm not in a massive hurry to jump back into the great unknown just yet (well, at least until I've had the second shot). And it's going to rely on public confidence too obviously.
Does anyone know if any results from the nightclub events have been published yet?
Benny Smyth
10-05-2021, 04:27 PM
Hmmm...maybe I'm misinterpreting what I heard, but it looks like that there may be the subtle introduction of Step 3.5.
Later on in May, we're going to be hearing about whether covid passports will be a thing, along with potential reduced SD measures. I personally don't see this as a negative - in fact, I'm encouraged at the thought of the Government planning on reopening the economy, but acknowledging that measures will need to be in place to allow us to do it safely (as opposed to 'Doors open - go spit in each other's mouths').
Excalibur
10-05-2021, 07:17 PM
Hmmm...maybe I'm misinterpreting what I heard, but it looks like that there may be the subtle introduction of Step 3.5.
Later on in May, we're going to be hearing about whether covid passports will be a thing, along with potential reduced SD measures. I personally don't see this as a negative - in fact, I'm encouraged at the thought of the Government planning on reopening the economy, but acknowledging that measures will need to be in place to allow us to do it safely (as opposed to 'Doors open - go spit in each other's mouths').
Anyone expecting that on June 21st all restrictions will be removed in the blink of an eye is living in cloud cuckoo land. Realists/Cynics/Pragmatists like me believe that we will see some form of restrictions until 2022, or even further. Sad but true. :(
PS. Optimism. I shall be more optimistic next Sunday, cos that's my second jab. :)
mattydj50
10-05-2021, 07:46 PM
PS. Optimism. I shall be more optimistic next Sunday, cos that's my second jab. :)
Mine on Thursday, so we'll plan future world domination together.
Imagine
10-05-2021, 10:01 PM
Anyone expecting that on June 21st all restrictions will be removed in the blink of an eye is living in cloud cuckoo land. Realists/Cynics/Pragmatists like me believe that we will see some form of restrictions until 2022, or even further. Sad but true. :(
Yes....and no....
I don't think the virus will suddenly pack up and go home at midnight on the 20th June as many others in our trade see to believe.
The vaccine seems to be taking effect, deaths today in England, Scottishland and NI were ZERO, and reading between the lines it looks like we're moving towards a "let people make their own decisions regarding their risk" over the government edicts approach with apparently new guidance being issued towards the end of this month (I believe that's possibly what Benny was alluding to)
There was also talk of potential local restrictions if an outbreak occurs. That's not going to help public confidence or business planning for anyone.
I DO think there will be some sort of passport (I don't like that terminology) in place for mass gatherings such as weddings, nightclubs and concerts, and potentially testing before and afterwards - if it helps everyone get back to work and normality though....I'm all for it. Who will police it for things like back-garden weddings and village hall events though is anyone's guess. Will it be something like roaming EHO's asking for proof? Will the police have the power to walk in and ask?
I'm going to try to contact my local EHO over the next couple of days to see if I can get some clarification on some things though. Although it's already been said that there will be no dancing at weddings....how about garden parties (where up to 30 can now meet), or indeed kids parties (they're all back at school and generally tend to all be from the same class/year group and so mixing anyway).
I just wish they'd be as clear on the rules for us as they've been for the likes of MUAs and tattoo parlours,
Benny Smyth
14-05-2021, 10:36 AM
So, the new guidance in a nutshell is that they're not gonna stop people dancing (just look at them and you judgmentally while they're doing it), but they are saying no designated dancefloor area. That makes sense to ensure an element of social distancing is adhered to. The problem that creates is that guests will be closer to chairs and tables, and I would dare say drunk people are going to climb said chairs and tables.
Now think about it: how many people have you personally seen with Covid-19?
And how many drunk people have you personally seen fall off things?
Reduce the risk and low likelihood of one by increasing the risk and high likelihood of the other.
Genius. Just genius.
Imagine
14-05-2021, 10:54 AM
So, the new guidance in a nutshell is that they're not gonna stop people dancing (just look at them and you judgmentally while they're doing it), but they are saying no designated dancefloor area. That makes sense to ensure an element of social distancing is adhered to. The problem that creates is that guests will be closer to chairs and tables, and I would dare say drunk people are going to climb said chairs and tables.
Saw all sorts of talk about this over the inter web last night. My personal stance is that although the guidance says "Dancing should be avoided", that EHO'S, licensing and the police will take a very different view if anyone's caught. Don't forget it also says that music levels should be kept to background levels in the same document.
Now think about it: how many people have you personally seen with Covid-19?
Actually, quite a few during the peaks. Some of them looked and felt absolutely dead, others didn't even feel like they had it.
And how many drunk people have you personally seen fall off things?
Probably not as many as I've seen with Covid I have to say. Although I've seen my fair share of drunkeness over the years, falling over/off of things hasn't really been a "thi
Reduce the risk and low likelihood of one by increasing the risk and high likelihood of the other.
Genius. Just genius.
But (and this is only my understanding from talking to a couple of virology people I know), what they're trying to do is stop the spread of Covid, which in turn could be spread onto many unsuspecting people unwittingly and potentially kill them. By increasing the risk of uncle Fred falling over after a couple too many sweet sherries is only going to ultimately affect him..
Don't get me wrong, I'm as frustrated now as everyone else. I've had a week away from delivering groceries this week and it's been like old times where I've had time to do things in my own business, including dealing with plenty of new enquiries and bookings. And then....this morning's news is all about the Indian variant, potentially bringing in local lockdowns and slowing down some of the easing....
To me, the genius bit is that we're going to let people jump onto an aeroplane from Monday and potentially bring it back in from elsewhere.
DJWilson
14-05-2021, 12:24 PM
But (and this is only my understanding from talking to a couple of virology people I know), what they're trying to do is stop the spread of Covid, which in turn could be spread onto many unsuspecting people unwittingly and potentially kill them. By increasing the risk of uncle Fred falling over after a couple too many sweet sherries is only going to ultimately affect him..
If you want zero risk of catching this, a cold or anything don't go outside. This shouldn't still be stopping everyone from getting back to normal. Now that everyone in the high risk bracket is 'covid safe' with a jab.
I agree, the biggest risk is foreign travel. We're an island so should contain any issues without a problem... Wishful thinking.
Imagine
14-05-2021, 02:23 PM
If you want zero risk of catching this, a cold or anything don't go outside. This shouldn't still be stopping everyone from getting back to normal. Now that everyone in the high risk bracket is 'covid safe' with a jab.
Having spoken to my virologist friends last night, it appears it's not quite that simple (yet) though.
How it was explained to me was that whilst we still have a large percentage of the population that haven't been stabbed in the arm yet, the virus will still spread and indeed mutate because it's not quite as easy to transmit itself as it was (i.e. it's hitting resistance from those that have been jabbed).
It's the mutations the Gov and the scientists are worried about at the moment because they could potentially mutate enough to be resistant to the vaccines and we're back where we started. They've already said in the past that we'll have to carry on and live with the virus eventually
rth_discos
14-05-2021, 04:06 PM
Let's see what the 5:30 announcement brings.
Based on Scotland's announcement today, at the very least, the continued uncertainty is not going help.
Imagine
14-05-2021, 08:25 PM
Let's see what the 5:30 announcement brings.
Based on Scotland's announcement today, at the very least, the continued uncertainty is not going help.
I fear having just watched it on playback that we could be in for a bumpy ride at the moment. 21st June is looking far from certain :(
IF the vaccines control this thing and more importantly hospitalisations and deaths remain low, then surely things can go ahead as planned can't they?
I'm actually starting to wonder if I need to be reaching out to my July weddings to see what their feelings are at the moment rather than await the rush of new re-schedules and cancellations
Benny Smyth
15-05-2021, 06:42 AM
And as a counter point:
Prof Robert Dingwall, a scientist on the government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said it seemed people who have been vaccinated "have only a very low risk of infection" from the Indian variant - and infection was "likely to be mild".
He said it "seems to be slightly more transmissible" than the UK and South African variants and could become the dominant variant in the UK.
"The consequence of this would be a greater number of mild illnesses with little risk of a surge in hospitalisations or deaths," he said.
"We need to stop panicking about every new variant that comes along," he added.
Excalibur
15-05-2021, 07:24 AM
To me, the genius bit is that we're going to let people jump onto an aeroplane from Monday and potentially bring it back in from elsewhere.
I agree, the biggest risk is foreign travel. We're an island so should contain any issues without a problem... Wishful thinking.
I think I'm with my old mate Sir Francis on those points lads:
" You might think that, I couldn't possibly comment. " :whistle:
I fear having just watched it on playback that we could be in for a bumpy ride at the moment. 21st June is looking far from certain :(
IF the vaccines control this thing and more importantly hospitalisations and deaths remain low, then surely things can go ahead as planned can't they?
I'm actually starting to wonder if I need to be reaching out to my July weddings to see what their feelings are at the moment rather than await the rush of new re-schedules and cancellations
Sadly, I fear Cassandra's ugly sister may have a point. :(:( From what I see ( and I haven't done any in depth research ) many of the outbreak spikes are in areas where the take up of vaccine jabs has been lowest. We could yet see certain areas locked down, while the rest of us enjoy relaxed restrictions.
Or we could all stay under Lockdown 4,5,6,127, 935 etc etc ad nauseam. As I heard someone say on telly today, " it's a race between the vaccine and the virus". Thing is, if enough areas provide breeding grounds for the virus and its jab resistant mutations, it may undo all the work done in jabbing the bulk of the population. :(
rth_discos
15-05-2021, 09:30 AM
As I heard someone say on telly today, " it's a race between the vaccine and the virus". Thing is, if enough areas provide breeding grounds for the virus and its jab resistant mutations, it may undo all the work done in jabbing the bulk of the population. :(
And this is what worries me. Every time we try and reopen too quickly, we get caught out - first with the Kent variant, and now the Indian variant.
In the meantime, places that did lock down correctly like New Zealand and Australia are seeing some normality domestically.
We were nearly there - we'd pretty much suppressed it, but we didn't close our borders.
Until the rest of the world is vaccinated, we must keep our borders closed.
The vaccination in the UK enables domestic activity to return, but as you say, we risk it all if a variant comes in from another country that is vaccine-resistant (and I dread to think what is currently being cooked up in Brazil and India etc...)
Excalibur
15-05-2021, 12:46 PM
We were nearly there - we'd pretty much suppressed it, but we didn't close our borders.
Until the rest of the world is vaccinated, we must keep our borders closed.
The vaccination in the UK enables domestic activity to return, but as you say, we risk it all if a variant comes in from another country that is vaccine-resistant (and I dread to think what is currently being cooked up in Brazil and India etc...)
Now were this a less serious topic, I'd be frivolously calling you all sorts of Xenophobic insults. In truth, I would have to say that the parts in bold above are so bleedin' obvious that I'm amazed it's not happening. :daft:
Obviously goods could be imported/exported without too much trouble. People should only be allowed movement with the best of reasons, and strictest quarantine measures. It's not rocket science, merely commonsense.
Is anyone else thinking Hitchhikers Guide To The Galaxy? ( Telephone sanitising engineers). Life imitating art yet again.
Imagine
17-05-2021, 02:00 PM
Round and round and round we go....where it stops....who the :Censored: knows
From the BBC just now...
"An expected update for when weddings would be able to resume as normal also looks to be on hold - the prime minister’s original intention was to give people 28 days' notice ahead of the planned 21 June re-opening."
I have a horrible feeling I'm going to have to contact my July couples very soon :(
ppentertainments
17-05-2021, 07:49 PM
Round and round and round we go....where it stops....who the :Censored: knows
From the BBC just now...
"An expected update for when weddings would be able to resume as normal also looks to be on hold - the prime minister’s original intention was to give people 28 days' notice ahead of the planned 21 June re-opening."
I have a horrible feeling I'm going to have to contact my July couples very soon :(
Hmm, unusual for me but I am feeling rather optimistic.
One thing I just can't see happening is things going backwards. I have had a number of meetings and phone calls and everyone I have spoken too is feeling positive about the 21st June going ahead - albeit maybe with some restrictions in place still, but not as severe as to stop weddings going ahead.
In fact, everyone has said they will be going ahead regardless, even if current restrictions are still in place.
Don't worry, will find my pessimistic head again very soon :D:D:D
Excalibur
18-05-2021, 08:53 AM
albeit maybe with some restrictions in place still, but not as severe as to stop weddings going ahead.
We're going to see restrictions of some sort for a long time to come.
In fact, everyone has said they will be going ahead regardless, even if current restrictions are still in place.
And that's the thing. I'm sure Boris is savvy enough to realise there's a point at which Civil Disobedience, even Civil Unrest will happen, if we go back into lockdown. We can only go forwards, even if it's baby steps, perhaps with the odd standstill.
rth_discos
18-05-2021, 09:54 AM
One thing I just can't see happening is things going backwards. I have had a number of meetings and phone calls and everyone I have spoken too is feeling positive about the 21st June going ahead - albeit maybe with some restrictions in place still, but not as severe as to stop weddings going ahead.
I think we'll return back to ad hoc local restrictions where necessary.
I can't see any national lockdown returning.
I think the question will be just over how much they relax on June 21st.
And if they do continue with local lockdowns, will that cause enough uncertainty for people to want to postpone a further year?
Excalibur
18-05-2021, 12:53 PM
I think we'll return back to ad hoc local restrictions where necessary.
In view of the fairly haphazard siting of Hotspots, that makes sense. It's the good old Tier system.
I can't see any national lockdown returning.
That's political suicide, and I think Boris has a well developed penchant for self preservation, bout of Covid notwithstanding. :)
I think the question will be just over how much they relax on June 21st.
Currently looking like not as much as everyone wants/expected. :(
And if they do continue with local lockdowns, will that cause enough uncertainty for people to want to postpone a further year?
I think clients now fall into two camps.
1) Let's do it now, with whatever restrictions, as the uncertainty is crippling.
2) Let's call the whole thing off ( for now? ) as the uncertainty is crippling.
ppentertainments
18-05-2021, 03:23 PM
And if they do continue with local lockdowns, will that cause enough uncertainty for people to want to postpone a further year?
Which begs the question I am seeking how to answer - how long can we sustain our generosity and just keep postponing dates ? I have just had one today for October postponing till October 2022 due to uncertainties in the colder months. They will be getting married 5 years after initially booking and paying fees that were relevant 5 years ago.
If things are 'almost' back to normal I do thing I will have to say NO otherwise it will be business suicide.
Jim - Scotland's Party DJ
18-05-2021, 04:32 PM
Which begs the question I am seeking how to answer - how long can we sustain our generosity and just keep postponing dates ? I have just had one today for October postponing till October 2022 due to uncertainties in the colder months. They will be getting married 5 years after initially booking and paying fees that were relevant 5 years ago.
If things are 'almost' back to normal I do thing I will have to say NO otherwise it will be business suicide.
TBF that's on you.
In the initial blast everyone got moved because it was the right thing to do and they weren't going ahead by any stretch of the imagination.
Someone at this stage asking to move from October? Yeah no probs but it's a cancellation and if you wish to rebook my 2023 fees are £x - you've already went well over and above what you should be doing as a business to placate them.
ppentertainments
18-05-2021, 08:01 PM
TBF that's on you.
In the initial blast everyone got moved because it was the right thing to do and they weren't going ahead by any stretch of the imagination.
Someone at this stage asking to move from October? Yeah no probs but it's a cancellation and if you wish to rebook my 2023 fees are £x - you've already went well over and above what you should be doing as a business to placate them.
I agree BUT legally there is a different view which could make things a little messy.
At present there is nothing 100% confirmed that a wedding will be able to go ahead in October. If you treat it as cancellation/rebook then for some reason weddings cannot go ahead in October you are on tricky ground. By implementing cancellation/rebook you are in essence saying 'weddings can 100% go ahead on that date' which is something nobody can guarantee. Indeed, all indications are by Autumn/Winter some restrictions will return.
Benny Smyth
18-05-2021, 08:59 PM
If you treat it as cancellation/rebook then for some reason weddings cannot go ahead in October you are on tricky ground. By implementing cancellation/rebook you are in essence saying 'weddings can 100% go ahead on that date' which is something nobody can guarantee. Indeed, all indications are by Autumn/Winter some restrictions will return.
The moment a booking is cancelled is the moment that contractual obligations for that date comes to an end, meaning what happens after the cancellation is irrelevant. What would TUI's response be if today you cancelled your holiday for October, then called back in November and said to them "Ah...we couldn't have gone anyway. Can I have a refund please?"
You could do a goodwill thing by saying that if it turns out that the original date couldn't go ahead, you'll credit their next booking with the cancellation fee but you wouldn't be obligated to do so.
Hindsight doesn't come into play here. Only thing that matters is what was known at the time of the cancellation, and what we know today is that the final step of the roadmap is on June 21st 2021.
rth_discos
18-05-2021, 10:00 PM
I agree BUT legally there is a different view which could make things a little messy.
At present there is nothing 100% confirmed that a wedding will be able to go ahead in October. If you treat it as cancellation/rebook then for some reason weddings cannot go ahead in October you are on tricky ground. By implementing cancellation/rebook you are in essence saying 'weddings can 100% go ahead on that date' which is something nobody can guarantee. Indeed, all indications are by Autumn/Winter some restrictions will return.
No, it's the opposite of this.
At the moment, there is nothing in place that means the wedding CAN'T go ahead in October.
Which means the cancellation is through choice, rather than through restrictions in place stopping the wedding going ahead.
Anyone cancelling now for October is voluntarily cancelling.
The fact there *might* be restrictions is irrelevant.
Vectis
19-05-2021, 09:20 AM
The current restrictions MIGHT be lifted on 21st June subject to the 4 tests being met. Presently there is no date in law(*) for the removal or further easing of restrictions, and so anyone calling up today to cancel/postpone any future date is entitled to blame it on the restrictions and then it's down to your Ts and Cs how this is dealt with.
EXCEPT if it's a wedding taking place in a covid-secure venue with 30 or fewer guests or is a funeral wake, because these are currently allowed (England) in which case they can't blame the cancel/postpone on covid.
* UNTIL 25th March 2022 when the Coronavirus Act 2020 expires taking with it the legal powers to implement restrictions (unless rescinded or extended before then).
Well that's my take on things anyway :)
So if it were me I wouldn't be contacting clients booked beyond 21st June off my own back - I'd be waiting to see what happened with the restrictions first, in the hope that they are lifted and the gig can go ahead OR the customer, if wishing to postpone/cancel, would have to do so under normal Ts and Cs.
rth_discos
19-05-2021, 12:38 PM
* UNTIL 25th March 2022 when the Coronavirus Act 2020 expires taking with it the legal powers to implement restrictions (unless rescinded or extended before then).
When I see a thread of "Will we return in 2022?" pop up, then I know it's not been a good year!
Imagine
19-05-2021, 01:43 PM
When I see a thread of "Will we return in 2022?" pop up, then I know it's not been a good year!
Don't even go there!
I couldn't face another year of delivering avocados and Prosecco around :o
ppentertainments
19-05-2021, 01:46 PM
The current restrictions MIGHT be lifted on 21st June subject to the 4 tests being met. Presently there is no date in law(*) for the removal or further easing of restrictions, and so anyone calling up today to cancel/postpone any future date is entitled to blame it on the restrictions and then it's down to your Ts and Cs how this is dealt with.
EXCEPT if it's a wedding taking place in a covid-secure venue with 30 or fewer guests or is a funeral wake, because these are currently allowed (England) in which case they can't blame the cancel/postpone on covid.
* UNTIL 25th March 2022 when the Coronavirus Act 2020 expires taking with it the legal powers to implement restrictions (unless rescinded or extended before then).
Well that's my take on things anyway :)
So if it were me I wouldn't be contacting clients booked beyond 21st June off my own back - I'd be waiting to see what happened with the restrictions first, in the hope that they are lifted and the gig can go ahead OR the customer, if wishing to postpone/cancel, would have to do so under normal Ts and Cs.
Exactly this - we have no confirmed date for restrictions to be lifted and it can get tricky if anyone went down the legal route - to be fair I doubt many would. It is false information that after 21st June we can expect, and advise, that things will go ahead unrestricted. Until March 2022 we can only act on information that current date, so a cancellation in October for instance, is not through choice, it can be blamed on coronavirus due to the current restrictions and guidance.
It is only when it is confirmed that restrictions will be eased, it then becomes choice and normal T&C can be followed. This is a legal view, not personal.
I have actually done the opposite and contacted all bookings I have, to make them aware once restrictions are lifted my normal T&C will apply. Any changes to take advantage of my current flexibility needs to be done before this.
Imagine
20-05-2021, 12:53 AM
My website appears to be a barometer on customer confidence at the moment....I kid you not! You can actually SEE the customer confidence wake and wane based on what's in the news on the day!
Until last weekend, it was absolutely manic....traffic like I could only dream of (and a couple of bookings to boot!)
From last weekend when the worries about the Indian variant were first published in the news...dead as a doornail
Last night when there was a Downing St press conference about things "not being too bad" - traffic went mad again (and another couple of bookings secured)
Sky news have recently published an article saying that nightclubs are no more risky than visiting the local supermarket (OK...ventilation needs to be taken into consideration but a drafty marquee or barn surely count...don't they?)
Am I clutching at straws now?
I actually feel confident that I might be filling dance floors in 2021 very soon rather than driving a carrot logo'd Sprinter around delivering bog rolls and wine. From Boris's own mouth earlier, they're leaning more to personal responsibility rather than legislation...that's got to be good hasn't it?
It may involve guests doing tests before and after the event (I'll be fully vaccinated by the time I get to my first booking). It may even involve the wearing of masks (oh Gawd I hate those things no matter how pretty some of them look!)
Looking at the wider picture though with the Indian variant being less transmittable than they first thought....I think July rather than June might mean we're back to some sort of what we remember from 15 months ago...
Imagine
21-05-2021, 12:04 AM
Another one optimistically booked for July 21 tonight. TWO all day weddings booked for Spring 22.
Come on people....I need to fill my diary for THIS year to save me from delivering turkeys in the snow again :daft:
At the moment, July 21 is now full (fingers crossed), as is September. The rest of the year leaves a LOT to be desired. ALL of the August ones have moved to 2022 and I'm not even getting new enquiries for August 21 for some reason. October is liveable, beyond that....nothing...no corporate Xmas enquiries...it's a wilderness!
Jan 2022 and beyond....whoopeee!!!
My dilemma is that at some point very soon, I need to go to the current people that put food on my table and reduce my hours to 2-3 days a week to allow me to go back to doing what I do (the agreement was always there from the very start and other's are already starting to gingerly step back into their pre-disease lives - plus the company are looking to cut hours because online shopping died literally OVERNIGHT at the last easing of restrictions!).
I honestly can't go back to full time DJ at the moment because, well...I'm scared to. And in all honestly I'll probably be delivering groceries for a couple of days a week just as a backup plan for a very long time to come! I sort of need the security blanket of some sort of job for the foreseeable just in case things blow up again, and in my mind they will because the Government and the overpowered scientists are too cautious of something that's less face it, is now less of a threat than the annual Flu!
With the A.R.G grant I received, plus what's on the books.....I can survive quite nicely this year if what's on the books is allowed to go ahead, especially if as predicted the flood gates open when/if restrictions are eventually lifted. The media seem to be reporting now that partying is no more dangerous than a trip to the supermarket after the test events.
The big problem is that we're not going to be told until a week before any further easing of restrictions, but I have to give 4 weeks notice of any change of contracted hours...what HAVE I signed up to?
ppentertainments
21-05-2021, 04:00 PM
Unfortunately this seems to have been forgotten about ??
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/14932713/wedding-announcement-boris-johnson-may-june/
DJ Jules
21-05-2021, 07:37 PM
Unfortunately this seems to have been forgotten about ??
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/14932713/wedding-announcement-boris-johnson-may-june/
That's because Hancock changed it after that announcement : https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/may/19/uk-covid-live-news-indian-variant-transmissible-coronavirus-boris-johnson-latest-updates
Julian
Imagine
21-05-2021, 10:44 PM
That's because Hancock changed it after that announcement : https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/may/19/uk-covid-live-news-indian-variant-transmissible-coronavirus-boris-johnson-latest-updates
Julian
But Boris has been on the radio at work all night tonight saying that there's nothing in the data to say that 21st June can't go ahead (although there seems to be a possible caveat about face coverings).
I just wish they'd make their blimmin' minds up now (as do the band members and wedding 'tog I work with). They don't seem to understand that most couples (or indeed their suppliers) can't just make a wedding happen at the drop of a hat!
DJ Jules
22-05-2021, 05:35 AM
But Boris has been on the radio at work all night tonight saying that there's nothing in the data to say that 21st June can't go ahead (although there seems to be a possible caveat about face coverings).
I just wish they'd make their blimmin' minds up now (as do the band members and wedding 'tog I work with). They don't seem to understand that most couples (or indeed their suppliers) can't just make a wedding happen at the drop of a hat!
Just remember which one is the career politician (and who promised us hugs at Xmas, going against all evidence at the time).
The general consensus is that the restrictions will 'go'. The question seems to be if they will go completely. If weddings returned with 200 guests, but on the condition that dance floors remained closed, it'd be seen as 'no restrictions' to Joe public (and a political win) and they'd happily hang us out to dry because we're a small, disorganised sector that are mostly working in other jobs now anyway.
They might make the announcement on the 24th May that restrictions will be lifted in June but, unless they rescind the Covid bill on that date as well, there is nothing to stop them giving 'guidance' to recommend against certain activities or suggest some precautionary measures continue on the 14th of June, depending on the state of play at that time.
A bit like we only saw the guidance for the 17th May unlocking on the 12th of May...
Julian
Excalibur
22-05-2021, 09:18 AM
They don't seem to understand that most couples (or indeed their suppliers) can't just make a wedding happen at the drop of a hat!
Mine took three weeks, start to finish. Honeymoon was spent at work, in the tied cottage ( six bedroom farmhouse, actually ) which went with the new job. ( And don't get me started about cost of wedding. Catering for reception cost £50! :eek::eek: )
The general consensus is that the restrictions will 'go'. The question seems to be if they will go completely. If weddings returned with 200 guests, but on the condition that dance floors remained closed, it'd be seen as 'no restrictions' to Joe public (and a political win) and they'd happily hang us out to dry because we're a small, disorganised sector that are mostly working in other jobs now anyway.
Julian
Anyone who thinks that on the 2st June we will throw away our masks, hug complete strangers in the street, and play music to venues packed to the gunwales with punters is on another planet. :daft:
There will be restrictions of some kind for the foreseeable future, I'd say up to Christmas ( 2021, in case some prophet of doom asks). Boris can't afford another lockdown, that's the only thing you can count on. He'll do anything to avoid it, and if that means decimating the hospitality industry, well that's just collateral damage. ( As far as he's concerned).
ppentertainments
22-05-2021, 07:04 PM
There will be restrictions of some kind for the foreseeable future, I'd say up to Christmas ( 2021, in case some prophet of doom asks). Boris can't afford another lockdown, that's the only thing you can count on. He'll do anything to avoid it, and if that means decimating the hospitality industry, well that's just collateral damage. ( As far as he's concerned).
I totally agree with you, however I am (guessing) it will be normal enough to allow everyone to 'work' For us I can see restricted numbers still, masks I would say are a certainty and I am unsure about testing.
From a politicians point of view, the hospitality sector will be the easiest to lose and recover from. Joe public have VERY short memories too, unless working in the sector they simply won't care once about the damage things are relaxed again. Another lockdown I think won't happen, unless armageddon was expected and doubt many would adhere to it anyway.
Imagine
22-05-2021, 08:38 PM
I totally agree with you, however I am (guessing) it will be normal enough to allow everyone to 'work' For us I can see restricted numbers still, masks I would say are a certainty and I am unsure about testing.
I'll take those conditions any day of the week to be able to get back out again.
I seem to be on a booking frenzy at the moment and the thought of possibly having to reschedule everything again doesn't bear thinking about :o
DJ Jules
23-05-2021, 06:19 PM
Based on the below, we could be back on the 21st of June.... and then gone again on the 22nd when someone changes their mind :daft:
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/23/distraught-choirs-forced-back-to-zoom-after-late-covid-rule-change-in-england
Excalibur
24-05-2021, 06:23 AM
Based on the below, we could be back on the 21st of June.... and then gone again on the 22nd when someone changes their mind :daft:
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/23/distraught-choirs-forced-back-to-zoom-after-late-covid-rule-change-in-england
From what it says in the article, we'll be alright, cos we're professionals, not amateurs. :zip:
ppentertainments
24-05-2021, 06:12 PM
From what it says in the article, we'll be alright, cos we're professionals, not amateurs. :zip:
Mr sceptic has returned again
Today it is announced that Boris isn't getting married till next year, whilst a major announcement for weddings was due today and never materialised.
Added to this any announcement about other easing of restrictions on June 21st is on hold.
Please tell me I am reading too much into this
rth_discos
24-05-2021, 08:20 PM
Mr sceptic has returned again
Today it is announced that Boris isn't getting married till next year, whilst a major announcement for weddings was due today and never materialised.
Added to this any announcement about other easing of restrictions on June 21st is on hold.
Please tell me I am reading too much into this
I think they genuinely don't yet know. We need to see what this Indian variant is doing.
On Twitter there are some excellent experts who share lots of information that we just don't get on the news in general.
A few have shared some modelling, and one suggests that even if we remove restrictions on June 21st we could see a further 38,000 deaths.
That's rather worrying.
It seems the only way to avoid it could be retaining current levels of restrictions, giving enough time for the vaccine to be fully distributed.
It seems the biggest concern is that the Indian variant does seem to evade the vaccines slightly more than the 'old' variant.
I highly recommend keeping a close eye on Twitter, as they are far ahead of what you'll get on the news.
Just make sure to follow those who are backing up their claims with data, and get a wide spread of views to see what the consensus is.
ppentertainments
24-05-2021, 10:07 PM
I think they genuinely don't yet know. We need to see what this Indian variant is doing.
On Twitter there are some excellent experts who share lots of information that we just don't get on the news in general.
A few have shared some modelling, and one suggests that even if we remove restrictions on June 21st we could see a further 38,000 deaths.
That's rather worrying.
It seems the only way to avoid it could be retaining current levels of restrictions, giving enough time for the vaccine to be fully distributed.
It seems the biggest concern is that the Indian variant does seem to evade the vaccines slightly more than the 'old' variant.
I highly recommend keeping a close eye on Twitter, as they are far ahead of what you'll get on the news.
Just make sure to follow those who are backing up their claims with data, and get a wide spread of views to see what the consensus is.
Yeah, I've followed twitter rather than the news since day one.
The REAL worry though seems to be this Yorkshire variant.
Imagine
24-05-2021, 10:14 PM
I think they genuinely don't yet know. We need to see what this Indian variant is doing.
On Twitter there are some excellent experts who share lots of information that we just don't get on the news in general.
A few have shared some modelling, and one suggests that even if we remove restrictions on June 21st we could see a further 38,000 deaths.
That's rather worrying.
It seems the only way to avoid it could be retaining current levels of restrictions, giving enough time for the vaccine to be fully distributed.
It IS worrying.....and yet (sorry if this gets too close to rule 20), we've opened the borders to let people go on holiday and potentially bring even more variants back in!
Surely THAT in itself should have been in stage four, and us (with test & trace as per pubs, restaurants, gyms etc.) in stage three?
Some of the logic being applied at the moment really doesn't make sense. And why oh why can there not be a distinction between say, a sweaty and unventilated village hall or night-club compared to an airy and free flowing marquee or barn setting? And if ventilation is the key (which they seem to be saying a lot of at the moment), why not just insist that venues such as clubs are well ventilated with the installation of proper systems before they can reopen?
Sorry....a bit ranty. Another long shift in a boring job just completed....
Excalibur
25-05-2021, 09:35 AM
It IS worrying.....and yet (sorry if this gets too close to rule 20), we've opened the borders to let people go on holiday and potentially bring even more variants back in!
No problem. The devil and deep blue sea of destroying the travel industry or allowing the disease to spike again. Have to say, I'm with you on this one.
Surely THAT in itself should have been in stage four, and us (with test & trace as per pubs, restaurants, gyms etc.) in stage three?
Some of the logic being applied at the moment really doesn't make sense. And why oh why can there not be a distinction between say, a sweaty and unventilated village hall or night-club compared to an airy and free flowing marquee or barn setting? And if ventilation is the key (which they seem to be saying a lot of at the moment), why not just insist that venues such as clubs are well ventilated with the installation of proper systems before they can reopen?
Sorry....a bit ranty. Another long shift in a boring job just completed....
Logical, Captain. :thumbs_up:
And what's with this Yorkshire variant? :confused: Is it like the original, but a little less free with its money? :whistle:
stormproductions
25-05-2021, 09:43 AM
I have returned in 2021!
I actually DJed on Saturday for the first time since Feb 2020. Felt a little odd but not as much as I was expecting. 50th birthday party for 30 people in a drafty marquee in lovely big garden in part of the country with very low Covid statistics. Generally very sensible, well behaved guests (clients were a surgeon and doctor so I assume they weren't entirely naive). Was great to be out working again but not an exciting party as they really just wanted to catch up with their mates (and to be honest were pretty plastered too!). That said, the planned midnight finish ended up being 2.15am.
And I've theoretically now got 2 jobs for clients who were originally planning a big party on 19th June but have now changed that to 2 smaller parties in June, I'm doing exterior lighting in the most beautiful garden which used to be the walled garden of a stately home, where they're hoping to be able to have dinner outside, so both of those will be extremely weather dependent!
Imagine
25-05-2021, 10:03 PM
And what's with this Yorkshire variant? :confused: Is it like the original, but a little less free with its money? :whistle:
It lives in your wallet and spreads when said wallet is opened....probably why Yorkshiremen don't tend to open their wallets too often.
In other more promising news....heard this on the radio tonight. It's looking like their might finally be a light at the end of the tunnel :)
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/covid-test-pilot-events-15-cases-west-end-revival-june-21-oliver-dowden-b937048.html
rth_discos
27-05-2021, 03:53 PM
And here we go...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57269032
"Boris Johnson says England may need to wait to end restrictions"
Excalibur
27-05-2021, 07:22 PM
"Boris Johnson says England may need to wait to end restrictions"
We're deep into semantics here. "End" restrictions. The implication of that is " all " restrictions. There are many restrictions that could be lifted without opening the floodgates. That would not be an end to restrictions, but it would be a significant relaxation.
rth_discos
27-05-2021, 08:46 PM
We're deep into semantics here. "End" restrictions. The implication of that is " all " restrictions. There are many restrictions that could be lifted without opening the floodgates. That would not be an end to restrictions, but it would be a significant relaxation.
I agree.
But I fear many of the features of weddings fit around the restrictions they are most nervous about...
Mass hugging
Alcohol
Face masks
Any of those elements may mean clients decide to postpone further... even a requirement to wear a face mask through the day could be enough.
And dancing still looks like the last thing to return - which is our raison d'être.
Imagine
27-05-2021, 10:27 PM
I agree.
But I fear many of the features of weddings fit around the restrictions they are most nervous about...
Mass hugging
Alcohol
Face masks
Any of those elements may mean clients decide to postpone further... even a requirement to wear a face mask through the day could be enough.
And dancing still looks like the last thing to return - which is our raison d'être.
But the nightclub trial threw up very few infections didn't it?
There's some very confusing messages coming out of London at the moment (nothing new there then!).
"We may have to delay but there's nothing in the data to suggest we can't proceed"....what does that mean?
Yes, cases are rising, that was to be expected. But even what I've read of tonight's briefing, hospitalisations and deaths are fairly stable.....so where's the panic?
I have an 'orrible feeling that it's going to be the end of July which is the target for all adults having been offered the jab before we're allowed back...and that will REALLY :Censored: me off seeing as July is a massive month for me :mad:
Funny enough though (going back to a post I put on a couple of weeks ago about my website being a barometer)....the uncertainty today has resulted in a massive drop in traffic and no enquiries. I've been booking people up at the rate of 2-3 a DAY until today :mad:
mattydj50
28-05-2021, 10:01 AM
We're deep into semantics here. "End" restrictions. The implication of that is " all " restrictions. There are many restrictions that could be lifted without opening the floodgates. That would not be an end to restrictions, but it would be a significant relaxation.
BBC News today are quoting: "From 21 June, assuming the India variant is under control, it's hoped - All legal limits on social contact will be removed".
I read this to be "legal limits", i.e., those that are enshrined in law and enforceable. Other "restrictions" may still be present as advisory and therefore, presumably, voluntary in law. Certain venues and events may still insist on their own restrictions but, though not legally enforceable, they might make things awkward enough for individuals not to wan to attend.
Benny Smyth
28-05-2021, 03:21 PM
Yes, cases are rising, that was to be expected. But even what I've read of tonight's briefing, hospitalisations and deaths are fairly stable.....so where's the panic?
There was one thing about the briefing last night that stood out to me. In months gone by, you had a graph for cases, one for hospitilations and one for deaths. When cases were surging, there was a lot of noise of "Yes, cases are rising but look at deaths - they haven't moved" and that was always met with the caveat of "Give it a couple of weeks and the other two graphs are gonna catch up to this weeks case numbers."
Last night, they did mention that case numbers are on the up but that hospitalisations and deaths have almost remained unaffected. It was treated as one of the same. No caveat.
So what happened to needing to wait for the other two graphs to catch up? Has the 'Covid Experience' now been expedited to "Catch it on Monday, in hospital on Wednesday, and dead by Friday", so there's no need to wait anymore? Or are we closing our eyes, putting hands on ears and "Lalalalalala'ing" really loudly.
I said this not too long ago:
Hmmm...maybe I'm misinterpreting what I heard, but it looks like that there may be the subtle introduction of Step 3.5.
And the longer this goes, the more I think that I'm right.
rth_discos
28-05-2021, 03:22 PM
But the nightclub trial threw up very few infections didn't it?
These trials were conducted at a point in time when infections were already at a very low rate.
The same test with higher cases will unlikely produce the same positive result.
What is against us is that infection rates are not only rising quickly - but hospital admission and deaths are also rising too.
If this continues, we're not in a good place.
Hospital admissions is the number to watch over the coming weeks.
18905
Excalibur
28-05-2021, 04:51 PM
I said this not too long ago:
Hmmm...maybe I'm misinterpreting what I heard, but it looks like that there may be the subtle introduction of Step 3.5.
And the longer this goes, the more I think that I'm right.
Otherwise known as " not removing all the restrictions on June 21st", as a certain Old Git has been saying all along. ;):)
DJ Jules
28-05-2021, 05:05 PM
So what happened to needing to wait for the other two graphs to catch up? Has the 'Covid Experience' now been expedited to "Catch it on Monday, in hospital on Wednesday, and dead by Friday", so there's no need to wait anymore? Or are we closing our eyes, putting hands on ears and "Lalalalalala'ing" really loudly.
Vaccines are supposed to have broken the link between infections and hospitalisation and deaths. But the reality is that no one really knows right know if that holds true, especially with new variants potentially in the mix.
So, right now everyone is holding their breath and watching the stats.
Julian
rth_discos
28-05-2021, 10:16 PM
Otherwise known as " not removing all the restrictions on June 21st", as a certain Old Git has been saying all along. ;):)
Reading between the lines.
There are two pertinent lines that Boris has said:
"irreversible roadmap out of lockdown"
"from no earlier than 21 June all legal limits "on social contact and on weddings and other life events" will be removed"
To achieve the irreversible bit, he will need to adhere to the second line, which means a slight postponement, rather than risking re-opening and then needing to lock down again.
Imagine
28-05-2021, 10:18 PM
Reading between the lines.
There are two pertinent lines that Boris has said:
"irreversible roadmap out of lockdown"
"from no earlier than 21 June all legal limits "on social contact and on weddings and other life events" will be removed"
To achieve the irreversible bit, he will need to adhere to the second line, which means a slight postponement, rather than risking re-opening and then needing to lock down again.
Add to this that there are now mutterings from SAGE members about it being better to delay until the end of August once the majority of the population will be vaccinated....and I think we have our answer.
July was looking so profitable too :(
DJ Jules
29-05-2021, 05:24 AM
Add to this that there are now mutterings from SAGE members about it being better to delay until the end of August once the majority of the population will be vaccinated....and I think we have our answer.
July was looking so profitable too :(
In other news... next Friday I'm Photographer at a wedding that has a DJ and 3hrs of dancing in the itinerary. 26 guests on the open deck of a boat and the venue have said it's fine. To be honest, they're probably right and it's no higher risk than walking into a supermarket.
Last night I ran a photobooth for a sixth form end of year party. Roughly 20x 17/18 year olds and a few staff.
Driving back from the photobooth through Bath, the queue to get into the cinema and the local wetherspoons was literally down the street. The brakes are off now, there's no going back.
It's really just a question of whether Brides will tolerate whatever restrictions are left in place and go ahead, or if they're going to want to reschedule.
Another interesting problem.... I have one bride who called me yesterday to reschedule because she's had to find a new venue. She went to visit hers this week and discovered they've closed the hotel part of the venue and rented out parts of the event space to try and cover their costs. There's now someone living in the bridal prep room and they've converted the ornamental garden into a vegetable patch :daft: She said there's no longer a restaurant or a breakfast room and the roof has been leaking over the function room so all of the wallpaper is off the walls. I have 3 weddings booked at this venue this year.
I also have 5 other Brides who are now looking to reschedule because their venues have folded and/or decided they are exiting events completely. The fallout continues...
Julian
rth_discos
29-05-2021, 08:38 AM
I also have 5 other Brides who are now looking to reschedule because their venues have folded and/or decided they are exiting events completely. The fallout continues...
Julian
This is what worries me. There's a cliff edge coming for financial support - both with the end of furlough and SEISS. Many who have been living off bounce back loans are now rapidly running out of money.
Many have sat waiting for a big reopening to get back on track. But if it isn't forthcoming, then the real fallout from Covid will materialise over the next 12-24 months.
Excalibur
29-05-2021, 11:25 AM
Reading between the lines.
There are two pertinent lines that Boris has said:
"irreversible roadmap out of lockdown"
"from no earlier than 21 June all legal limits "on social contact and on weddings and other life events" will be removed"
To achieve the irreversible bit, he will need to adhere to the second line, which means a slight postponement, rather than risking re-opening and then needing to lock down again.
I think he's got it By George he's got it! :)
Add to this that there are now mutterings from SAGE members about it being better to delay until the end of August once the majority of the population will be vaccinated....and I think we have our answer.
July was looking so profitable too :(
Vaccination is the Holy Grail.
This is what worries me. There's a cliff edge coming for financial support - both with the end of furlough and SEISS. Many who have been living off bounce back loans are now rapidly running out of money.
Many have sat waiting for a big reopening to get back on track. But if it isn't forthcoming, then the real fallout from Covid will materialise over the next 12-24 months.
The genie is out of the bottle now. We will go forwards from here, just not as fast as some might wish.
Imagine
30-05-2021, 10:36 PM
Soooo....what are we "reading" from the Boris/Carrie wedding yesterday then?
Small wedding (apparently less than the allowed 30 in attendance), with plans for the honeymoon and evening reception with a lot of people in 2022.
Is a rather large hint being dropped about such receptions not being allowed this year?
Benny Smyth
31-05-2021, 06:39 AM
Or organising a big ass party then swanning away for a couple of weeks while still dealing with a pandemic is a sure fire way to bury yourself.
DJ Jules
31-05-2021, 07:01 AM
Soooo....what are we "reading" from the Boris/Carrie wedding yesterday then?
Small wedding (apparently less than the allowed 30 in attendance), with plans for the honeymoon and evening reception with a lot of people in 2022.
Is a rather large hint being dropped about such receptions not being allowed this year?
The Prime minster has been wholly distracted by domestic matters throughout the pandemic? Getting divorced, having a baby, redecorating No.11, getting married...
Oh, and his now wife lives on a different planet to the rest of us entirely?
Benny may have a point, he would have come under heavy fire if he'd gone ahead with a large event at the same time as asking people to be cautious with contacts. But at the same time, throwing a lavish party so soon after the end of lockdown would have been 100% true to character, so it does make me wonder what he knows...
Julian
ppentertainments
31-05-2021, 06:06 PM
Soooo....what are we "reading" from the Boris/Carrie wedding yesterday then?
Small wedding (apparently less than the allowed 30 in attendance), with plans for the honeymoon and evening reception with a lot of people in 2022.
Is a rather large hint being dropped about such receptions not being allowed this year?
It was the fact last Monday instead of announcing what the roadmap holds for weddings, he chose to announce his own wedding next year that made me start to think.
I really can't see things easing as much as planned, however the good news is virtually all my couples are saying they are going ahead regardless, even if nothing changes.
Could this be the 'new normal' ? I hate that phrase haha
Imagine
01-06-2021, 08:17 PM
however the good news is virtually all my couples are saying they are going ahead regardless, even if nothing changes.
Could this be the 'new normal' ? I hate that phrase haha
Funny your should say that...
I've seen others in my area complaining about a deluge of calls over the weekend wanting to cancel/postpone July and August weddings. Yet I've had two couples sign on the dotted line (10/7 and 14/8).
I'm beginning to think Joanna and Joe public have had enough now and things will go ahead regardless...
Imagine
02-06-2021, 12:22 AM
This is an interesting time....
The scientists (who are renowned for wanting to eradicate this thing no matter how hard it'll be) are asking for easing (i.e. 21/6) to be delayed by a month (that's a LOT of money on my P&L account so OI!....NO!)
Boris and his sidekicks however are still saying that there's nothing in the data to suggest that stage four can't go ahead....even last night!
And they're right! (Boris...NOT the scientists!)
Let's be honest!. Yes....transmission and infections are up, but hospitalisation and death is stable/falling. There's now no economic sense in delaying any further. Just look at the pictures of beaches over the weekend, and the number of people living "normal" lives in shops (my own supermarket is packed at the moment as if there's no threat anymore). I'm even starting to remove my mask on customer doorsteps (against company policy but hey....I'm asthmatic and outside where there is very little risk...especially in my neck of the woods where they don't even publish where the infections are anymore for fear of identifying who's got it!)
The general public want to and indeed are returning to normal life, and I think that's going to include weddings and parties of any description....whether Boris and Co. allow them or not! Civil disobedience of sorts is looming!
I know the rhetoric was "no earlier than 21st June", but I think Boris has dug himself a very deep hole in that the public are expecting 21st June come what may.
I'm still taking bookings for July/August this year despite some of the negative news. The couples themselves are confident that things will be back to business by then! And let's face it, in the drafty marquees and farm barns that I tend to work in where it can get blimmin' chilly at times...where's the risk? It's hardly a sweaty nightclub atmosphere.
I've looked into my crystal balls (yes I walk funny) and can foresee
* Receptions of upto 50 guests for the remainder of 2021
* Dancing (socially distanced) allowed again
* Music levels still kept to background levels (cough!) to prevent raised voices.
Thoughts?
In other news...i've now passed my exams to be a "competent person" to provide PAT testing, The PAT meter and stickers will be with me later today and the stress and expense has already paid for itself. It's initially for my own use but could prove to be a business "pivot" :)
DJ Jules
02-06-2021, 05:54 AM
Cases are rising, hospitalisation trail cases by 2 weeks, deaths by 4 weeks. That's why Hancock has delayed the decision by 3 weeks, because it gives them time to fully evaluate if vaccination has really broken the link between cases and deaths.
As you say though, the brakes are off, people are pretty much back to living their normal lives and I can't see anyone taking much notice of any changes to the rules. Very few of the current rules can realistically be enforced.
Julian
Benny Smyth
02-06-2021, 08:17 AM
So we have locked down to protect the NHS, the elderly and vulnerable, the NHS (again), the not so elderly and vulnerable, the NHS (again...again), and now scientists reckon we need to again for people who have refused vaccines and/or travelled to virus hot spots without quarantining on return.
Sorry, but having saved more lives the the average superhero, the rest of us now need our lives back.
DJ Jules
02-06-2021, 08:23 AM
Sorry, but having saved more lives the the average superhero, the rest of us now need our lives back.
...and then there's the variant problem that means that the selfish and unvaccinated could undermine the vaccination effort for everyone else. I'm being a bit harsh with that, the impact of the unvaccinated in developed nations is going to be nothing compared to the problems caused by denser populated and less well off countries. As the WHO keep saying, vaccination has to be a global effort.
Julian
rth_discos
02-06-2021, 08:46 AM
now scientists reckon we need to again for people who have refused vaccines and/or travelled to virus hot spots without quarantining on return.
That's not what I've heard from scientists. That's what I've heard anti-lockdown campaigners interpret what scientists have said.
What scientist have said is that not enough of the population has received their second dose + waited 2-3 weeks for that second dose to take full effect.
We keep looking at the headline figure of those who have received a first dose, but we are still at less than 50% of the population with both doses (and this doesn't include children).
Which means when the maths is calculated, we don't have enough herd immunity through vaccination to stop a rise in cases and the knock on hospitalisations and deaths.
What they are saying is that the NHS isn't in a position to cope with any further peaks, as attention desperately needs to be diverted to those who have other illnesses and conditions that need treating. There's a big backlog that needs to be started. Any more peaks of hospitalisations just pushes those other treatments even further back.
The impression I get is that just a few weeks extra on the current type of restrictions could avoid a later more dramatic set of restrictions. And it is short lived, as the vaccinations are continuing at a great pace.
However, they really need to sort the financial support out.
We cannot control Covid.
But we can control handing out money to those who have been affected by the restrictions - and so far they haven't been generous enough to a significant number of people.
I truly believe if they had sorted out proper financial support for *everyone* who needed it, we wouldn't now have such a call for lockdown measures to be lifted.
DJWilson
02-06-2021, 09:44 AM
The vaccine was sold as the be all and end all. Now we're close to freedom, this is being back tracked with some other :Censored: story.
Everyone makes a big deal about the 2nd dose for 'complete protection'. But surely complete means 100%?
Another issue, why approve a 1 dose vaccine that works at less than 90%? If you can have that why make a big deal about the 2nd dose of previous jabs?
Benny Smyth
02-06-2021, 10:39 AM
What scientist have said is that not enough of the population has received their second dose + waited 2-3 weeks for that second dose to take full effect.
Which means when the maths is calculated, we don't have enough herd immunity through vaccination to stop a rise in cases and the knock on hospitalisations and deaths.
The problem with the herd immunity argument, as with pretty much anything when it comes to this pandemic, is that it changes depending on which scientist you're talking to. From memory, we've achieved herd immunity four times now, ranging from last summer to this April just gone, which I posted about in this very thread (https://www.forum.mobilediscodirectory.co.uk/showthread.php?44883-Will-we-return-in-2021&p=673485&viewfull=1#post673485).
What they are saying is that the NHS isn't in a position to cope with any further peaks, as attention desperately needs to be diverted to those who have other illnesses and conditions that need treating. There's a big backlog that needs to be started. Any more peaks of hospitalisations just pushes those other treatments even further back.
The number of new cases is starting to rise again, thanks mainly to the variant formally known as 'Indian' (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2279063-coronavirus-who-announces-greek-alphabet-naming-scheme-for-variants/#:~:text=The%20World%20Health%20Organization%20(WH O,%2C%20is%20labelled%20%E2%80%9Calpha%E2%80%9D.). Hospitalisations are slowly rising too, but much more slowly than previous outbreaks/waves/whatever you want to call it. One would assume slower because of the vaccine working it's magic for those who haven't refused it.
There has to come a point where we as a society, and the politicians who make decisions on our behalf, have to decide what is an acceptable level of hospitalisations and death. It's not a pleasant subject to talk about, but we do have to talk about it. I've said it before that it was always a numbers game.
On average, 450 people die of cancer each day. Nearly 200 people die with dementia/Alzheimer's each day. Now look at Covid deaths (I'm not going to look specifically at what was reported yesterday because that was a one-off, plus the delay in reporting from the Bank Holiday weekend etc.).
We do need to be driven by data, but should we also be driven by comparative data? Things are different to last March, last September and even this January. The news tells us today that 115 of the 11,214 deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 21 May mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate, and that newly-released figures for virus-related deaths is the lowest since September, and down by 49 on the week before. We're even hearing today that The UK is on the brink of reaching three-quarters of adults receiving their first Covid vaccine, with half getting their second. What would the ratio be on June 21st? Maybe add another 10% to each? Do we need more folk double jabbed? Maybe look at driving up the second vaccine in Bolton and other areas where the Delta variant is now in high concentration.
And what about this Bank Holiday weekend? In Bank Holiday's gone by, we were warned repeatedly to not travel to the beach, be careful, and the usual three-worded slogan. Maybe I just missed it, but this Bank Holiday I barely heard a peep. There's the usual daily "Data looks encouraging, but don't relax just yet" schtick, but no specific guidance from the Government about what turned out to be the hottest day of the year thus far.
As it stands today, there's not a lot of argument to delay June 21st. Obviously, if facts change then I dare say that policy has to change as well, but I take issue with being told that I need to wait a couple of weeks to see how hospitalisations and deaths are being affected by Delta, whilst also being told by scientists that current data already tells us that we need to kick the can down the road.
rth_discos
02-06-2021, 12:47 PM
We do need to be driven by data, but should we also be driven by comparative data? Things are different to last March, last September and even this January. The news tells us today that 115 of the 11,214 deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 21 May mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate, and that newly-released figures for virus-related deaths is the lowest since September, and down by 49 on the week before. We're even hearing today that The UK is on the brink of reaching three-quarters of adults receiving their first Covid vaccine, with half getting their second. What would the ratio be on June 21st? Maybe add another 10% to each? Do we need more folk double jabbed? Maybe look at driving up the second vaccine in Bolton and other areas where the Delta variant is now in high concentration.
All these numbers have been crunched - they have taken into account the transmissibility of the Indian variant, and the level of vaccination and determined we're not quite there.
It's not far off though - literally just a few weeks.
Ultimately, would you be prepared to sacrifice a family member instead of a few weeks of extending current restrictions?
Oh, and herd immunity wasn't achieved through natural infections last year and was never possible to be achieved that way - it would have been total carnage.
ppentertainments
02-06-2021, 04:37 PM
I've looked into my crystal balls (yes I walk funny) and can foresee
* Receptions of upto 50 guests for the remainder of 2021
* Dancing (socially distanced) allowed again
* Music levels still kept to background levels (cough!) to prevent raised voices.
That mirrors what I am expecting. Will be happy with that as don't think it will cause any problems and cannot see people rescheduling
Imagine
02-06-2021, 10:05 PM
That mirrors what I am expecting. Will be happy with that as don't think it will cause any problems and cannot see people rescheduling
Me too, although Boris has AGAIN today reiterated/hinted that it's business as usual from 21st June so could potentially be more bodies on the dance floor :)
rth_discos
02-06-2021, 10:31 PM
Me too, although Boris has AGAIN today reiterated/hinted that it's business as usual from 21st June so could potentially be more bodies on the dance floor :)
17 seconds in to tonight's BBC News at 6 is the clip of Boris:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000wnyp/bbc-news-at-six-02062021
He says:
I can see nothing in the data - at the moment - that means we can't go ahead with Step 4, all the reopening on June 21st - but we've got to be so cautious.
Based on previous experience, he never says what's really happening until the last minute.
But he has intentionally added those caveats in to give him the wiggle room he might need for his announcement on June 14th.
Of course the data right now doesn't suggest any issues - it's the potential of what the data might do over the coming weeks...
ppentertainments
03-06-2021, 03:16 PM
REALLY surprised at todays travel announcement.
It does show that the government WILL make changes if they need too, so until the announcement on the 14th I think anything else said will just be speculation.
Problem is, cases are rising ............
rth_discos
07-06-2021, 08:52 AM
REALLY surprised at todays travel announcement.
It does show that the government WILL make changes if they need too, so until the announcement on the 14th I think anything else said will just be speculation.
Problem is, cases are rising ............
Yes, and to be fair, it's too early to make any announcement. Cases are rising - but we don't yet know how that translates to hospitalisations, which is what is most important here.
On that basis, I'd fully expect to only get confirmation of what's happening next on the 14th June, once the data is available.
However, I'd be happy for current restrictions to be extended for a few further weeks, if that helps get us over the line with vaccinations, where there is strong evidence that to open up on the 21st June puts us at risk of needing to go back into more severe restrictions at a later date.
The next week will be critical - my fear is that the 14th is just a little too early to see what is happening from the new Delta variant that is clearly now taking hold.
One more week to wait...
Imagine
10-06-2021, 01:49 AM
Yes, and to be fair, it's too early to make any announcement. Cases are rising - but we don't yet know how that translates to hospitalisations, which is what is most important here.
On that basis, I'd fully expect to only get confirmation of what's happening next on the 14th June, once the data is available.
However, I'd be happy for current restrictions to be extended for a few further weeks, if that helps get us over the line with vaccinations, where there is strong evidence that to open up on the 21st June puts us at risk of needing to go back into more severe restrictions at a later date.
The next week will be critical - my fear is that the 14th is just a little too early to see what is happening from the new Delta variant that is clearly now taking hold.
One more week to wait...
I'm actually with you on that Gavin - I'd rather we were unleashed with no threat of further restrictions down the line, as much as it's going to hurt!
I'm now officially nervous. July was/is a bumper month with income more than 5X that of delivering for a major supermarket.
And yet, the signs aren't brilliant...let's be totally honest. The Times are "reporting" that weddings will be unlimited numbers....but dancing is still going to be advised against. What the :censored: does that even mean? Will I be prosecuted should plod turn up and guests are throwing shapes around their tables? Will my kit be confiscated?
I've taken the precaution of reaching out to my my July brides this evening to see how they feel and which way they want to proceed if Monday isn't the news they want to hear. It's probably too soon to send that particular email, but I have a feeling that July weddings as couples expect them aren't going to happen and I'd rather pre-empt the expected deluge of reschedules than be caught off guard (I've already had a September one postpone until next year).
Gawd - what happened to moaning about dead dance floors?
Excalibur
10-06-2021, 12:00 PM
What e[/B] :censored: does that even mean?
It means that now I'll be a great DJ, achieving exactly what he's aiming to do. :whistle:
ppentertainments
10-06-2021, 01:12 PM
And yet, the signs aren't brilliant...let's be totally honest. The Times are "reporting" that weddings will be unlimited numbers....but dancing is still going to be advised against. What the :censored: does that even mean? Will I be prosecuted should plod turn up and guests are throwing shapes around their tables? Will my kit be confiscated?
I am still remaining positive, HOWEVER, reading further into the news, it is reported that nightclubs will not be allowed to open yet - could it mean unrestricted weddings BUT the caveat of no DJ/dancing etc still to fall in line with 'no nightclubs'.
Much as it will hurt, it does make sense to allow larger weddings, but not an evening function as we know it and unfortunately most couples will be happy with this. Hope I am wrong but can see us truly being the 'forgotten industry'
DJWilson
10-06-2021, 02:30 PM
I am still remaining positive, HOWEVER, reading further into the news, it is reported that nightclubs will not be allowed to open yet - could it mean unrestricted weddings BUT the caveat of no DJ/dancing etc still to fall in line with 'no nightclubs'.
Much as it will hurt, it does make sense to allow larger weddings, but not an evening function as we know it and unfortunately most couples will be happy with this. Hope I am wrong but can see us truly being the 'forgotten industry'
DJs are currently allowed in venues, and even small receptions. The issue we'd face is people asking to turn up it all night.
Steven
10-06-2021, 03:30 PM
They should allow full weddings but make the couple commit to a test on day 2 and or 5, as they are the common denominator and everyone will be hugging and kissing them.
if they test positive then everyone else has to isolate and test until a negative result. I know its not perfect, but it's a decent compromise.
ppentertainments
10-06-2021, 05:02 PM
DJs are currently allowed in venues, and even small receptions. The issue we'd face is people asking to turn up it all night.
I know - but could the compromise for larger weddings be no disco ?
DJWilson
10-06-2021, 05:08 PM
I know - but could the compromise for larger weddings be no disco ?
It's no different to a pub or club having hundreds of people sat at tables with a DJ playing at the moment.
Benny Smyth
10-06-2021, 05:24 PM
DJs are currently allowed at weddings, and guests are not prohibited from dancing (they're only told that they can't dance in the usual singular location).
It's not that hard to work with. In fact, the 'Step Three' weddings that I have worked have been great fun. If this carries on into step four - with or without the larger numbers - it'll continue to be great fun.
DJ Jules
10-06-2021, 07:16 PM
Yup, the risk to us is only that couples decide to cancel because they can't have the numbers they want, or because some other restriction remains in force that they can't cope with.
I suspect venues will be telling them in no uncertain terms that cancellation will result in loss of their full fee, and we will be within our rights to do the same. As Benny has said, we can currently perform.
Well, that's assuming I can remember how to....
Julian
Excalibur
10-06-2021, 08:55 PM
Well, that's assuming I can remember how to....
Julian
Don't jest! When we PAT tested my gear last week, I couldn't remember what some of the sockets were for on the radio mic/DMX box I built! :o:o
Imagine
10-06-2021, 10:08 PM
Don't jest! When we PAT tested my gear last week, I couldn't remember what some of the sockets were for on the radio mic/DMX box I built! :o:o
Sockets are the least of my problems. I PAT tested my gear on Tuesday....I'd forgotten how heavy my subs were! They're gonna kill me when I have to start lugging those around again! :):)
DJ Jules
11-06-2021, 05:40 AM
Sockets are the least of my problems. I PAT tested my gear on Tuesday....I'd forgotten how heavy my subs were! They're gonna kill me when I have to start lugging those around again! :):)
Yup. That too!!
Julian
ppentertainments
11-06-2021, 08:01 AM
Sockets are the least of my problems. I PAT tested my gear on Tuesday....I'd forgotten how heavy my subs were! They're gonna kill me when I have to start lugging those around again! :):)
I have found due to Covid all my equipment has gained weight and my clothing has shrunk :daft::daft:
Excalibur
12-06-2021, 07:45 AM
Check your diaries lads and lasses, it's about to be music chairs time! :daft:
A delay on easing now looks exceedingly likely. :(
ppentertainments
12-06-2021, 08:37 AM
Check your diaries lads and lasses, it's about to be music chairs time! :daft:
A delay on easing now looks exceedingly likely. :(
Whilst is does look likely, it is worth talking to couples about their plans - I don't have 1 wedding that are even considering postponing, even if things stay the way they are.
I really can't see things going backwards, so while there may be a need to adapt I am confident of 'being back to normal' after the 21st still.
Shaun
13-06-2021, 11:27 AM
What they are saying is that the NHS isn't in a position to cope with any further peaks, as attention desperately needs to be diverted to those who have other illnesses and conditions that need treating. There's a big backlog that needs to be started. Any more peaks of hospitalisations just pushes those other treatments even further back.
Can you imagine the difference to the NHS is they had directed the £37 BILLION they wasted on the track and trace to improving the NHS?
I know we're not allowed to talk politics on this forum...somebody will just have to report me to the moderators - I don't care. :daft:. Always wondered what it was like in the sin bin. lol.
Imagine
13-06-2021, 11:47 AM
Well we certainly wouldn't be seeing headlines like this worrying one this morning!
"In other news, ministers fear Britain will have a six-week window to open up in the summer or risk having Covid restrictions in place until spring, the Sunday Telegraph reports. Government advisers have explained there is a "ticking clock" to lift measures before it becomes too late to do so in September because of the greater transmission of Covid in winter and seasonal pressures on the NHS. "
Does this mean come September we're effectively banned again? Will we literally only be able to work in the summer months? Answers on the back of a £50 note please
Excalibur
13-06-2021, 04:54 PM
Can you imagine the difference to the NHS is they had directed the £37 BILLION they wasted on the track and trace to improving the NHS?
I know we're not allowed to talk politics on this forum...somebody will just have to report me to the moderators - I don't care. :daft:. Always wondered what it was like in the sin bin. lol.
" Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely ".
:zip:
Benny Smyth
14-06-2021, 06:12 PM
So, it looks like "As you were, but more of it."
Numbers at weddings are now going to be based on venue capacity, and the restrictions seem like they are going to remain as they are in step 3. Essentially, more people dancing round tables.
Clicky Clicky (https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do?fbclid=IwAR2jVWBaS3fux0TFEkQggkIU2trpMADOaM_fFZ uwa4vgc9AY8HOdAq8nmx8#england-remains-in-step-3)
If you haven't done so already, now would be the time to get excited about renewing your PLI. :p
Imagine
14-06-2021, 06:17 PM
So, it looks like "As you were, but more of it."
Numbers at weddings are now going to be based on venue capacity, and the restrictions seem like they are going to remain as they are in step 3. Essentially, more people dancing round tables.
Clicky Clicky (https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do?fbclid=IwAR2jVWBaS3fux0TFEkQggkIU2trpMADOaM_fFZ uwa4vgc9AY8HOdAq8nmx8#england-remains-in-step-3)
If you haven't done so already, now would be the time to get excited about renewing your PLI. :p
Trying to make sense of what was said from the cab of my grocery van….
So, indoor dancing banned, outdoor dancing advised against, and a marquee with half its walls opened is classed as outdoors?
Did I read that right?
Benny Smyth
14-06-2021, 06:41 PM
Trying to make sense of what was said from the cab of my grocery van….
So, indoor dancing banned, outdoor dancing advised against, and a marquee with half its walls opened is classed as outdoors?
Did I read that right?
Indoor dancing is not banned. Dancing is not banned at all. It is advised against.
It's the dancefloor that must be closed.
rth_discos
14-06-2021, 06:44 PM
So, it looks like "As you were, but more of it."
Numbers at weddings are now going to be based on venue capacity, and the restrictions seem like they are going to remain as they are in step 3. Essentially, more people dancing round tables.
Clicky Clicky (https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do?fbclid=IwAR2jVWBaS3fux0TFEkQggkIU2trpMADOaM_fFZ uwa4vgc9AY8HOdAq8nmx8#england-remains-in-step-3)
If you haven't done so already, now would be the time to get excited about renewing your PLI. :p
Hmmm I'm kinda more nervous about this.
A wedding of 30, with a bit of dancing, worked out OK - you were never going to get that many people on the dancefloor, and it could all be done safely, as I found out a couple of weeks ago. That worked for me.
100 people at the wedding? If I were the venue, I'd be *more* nervous now about a DJ setting up.
How this plays out in reality is anyone's guess.
DJ Jules
15-06-2021, 07:38 AM
A wedding of 30, with a bit of dancing, worked out OK - you were never going to get that many people on the dancefloor, and it could all be done safely, as I found out a couple of weeks ago. That worked for me.
100 people at the wedding? If I were the venue, I'd be *more* nervous now about a DJ setting up.
How this plays out in reality is anyone's guess.
I'm booked for my first wedding on the 24th of June. I've just emailed the venue events coordinator to see what their take is on it. The events team for the gig after that have already been in touch to say that the dance floor will be closed, but the doors will be wide open and guests will be welcome to dance outside! Luckily this venue is in the middle of 100's of acres of private estate and has the most open entertainment license I've ever seen (music is allowed 24x7 indoors or outdoors!)
Julian
Imagine
15-06-2021, 09:08 AM
My first one back is in a marquee. Apparently the venue are happy to proceed and they’re in the middle of nowhere so it looks like I’m back in the game 😎
ppentertainments
15-06-2021, 10:57 AM
100 people at the wedding? If I were the venue, I'd be *more* nervous now about a DJ setting up.
Why ? Having spoken to venues their main challenge is getting enough staff for table service.
At the start of every wedding I make an announcement that masks should be worn when walking around the venue, dancing is advised against as is singing at a high volume. That and a few signs dotted around the venue is enough to keep them in the clear.
I had 3 covid inspections who have all been fantastic I have to say, and they said basically so long as we are not encouraging people to break guidance, it is now largely up to each individual to make their own minds up.
Imagine
15-06-2021, 12:01 PM
I had 3 covid inspections who have all been fantastic I have to say, and they said basically so long as we are not encouraging people to break guidance, it is now largely up to each individual to make their own minds up.
And I think this is the way things will eventually unlock.
Occasional weddings where people are getting up and dancing, monitor the outcome of any spikes, repeat until UKGov are sure they're not going to have to back track. In effect, unofficial test events before the big bang.
DJ Jules
15-06-2021, 12:22 PM
And I think this is the way things will eventually unlock.
I've now heard from almost all of my weddings for the next 5 weeks and they've all suddenly acquired marquees to allow the evening celebration to go ahead as originally planned.
Ironically I've just picked up a gig because a DJ decided they couldn't live with that.
Julian
Imagine
16-06-2021, 09:24 AM
I've now heard from almost all of my weddings for the next 5 weeks and they've all suddenly acquired marquees to allow the evening celebration to go ahead as originally planned.
Ironically I've just picked up a gig because a DJ decided they couldn't live with that.
Julian
I've just had an interesting conversation with the owner of the venue I'm doing my first wedding at......
I was a little concerned after reading the official guidance that outdoor dancing wasn't even mentioned (outdoor dance floors aren't mentioned either - only inside). He has a specific "outdoor" license for his marquee and has had his barristers on the case to check and apparently it's all systems go. Even the police have said they can't do anything to stop it as it's technically outside. He's had several weddings there with full on party (only the allowed 30 but outdoors) since the May 17th easing and hasn't had a single problem legally.
Looks like I've got at least one wedding to definitely do in July :)
Retrodisco
16-06-2021, 11:22 AM
Marquees are fine provided you can open the sides. All systems go for several of mine too.
DJ Jules
16-06-2021, 01:12 PM
Apparently I spoke to soon. I've been checking with venues, now I've checked with clients.
Two of my weddings have been cancelled and have failed to inform either me or the venue!!
Another has just decided they want to push the date back from the 17th to the 19th of July, despite the venue clearing me for both music and Photobooth. The discussion on that one is getting nasty because a) I'm not available for the 19th and b) hes arguing that I should refund because 'restrictions are preventing the wedding from going ahead'.
It's starting to look like I'm going to have a lot of gaps in my diary in July.
Julian
ppentertainments
16-06-2021, 04:35 PM
Apparently I spoke to soon. I've been checking with venues, now I've checked with clients.
Two of my weddings have been cancelled and have failed to inform either me or the venue!!
Another has just decided they want to push the date back from the 17th to the 19th of July, despite the venue clearing me for both music and Photobooth. The discussion on that one is getting nasty because a) I'm not available for the 19th and b) hes arguing that I should refund because 'restrictions are preventing the wedding from going ahead'.
It's starting to look like I'm going to have a lot of gaps in my diary in July.
Julian
I've 2 couples pitching DJ v Venue. They are telling me the venue has said ABC is allowed, then going to the venue saying I have said ABC is allowed lol. Can't blame them to be honest but think we need to proceed with caution.
DJ Jules
16-06-2021, 05:13 PM
I've 2 couples pitching DJ v Venue. They are telling me the venue has said ABC is allowed, then going to the venue saying I have said ABC is allowed lol. Can't blame them to be honest but think we need to proceed with caution.
This venue has called to apologise to me to as they just assumed all the suppliers would be available. They're prepared to put in writing that I could have performed on the original date (they're putting a marquee up for the evening reception). Basically he doesn't have a leg to stand on.
I've heard from another DJ who is having the supplier vs DJ issue. This customer is trying to sneak in 100 guests and a dance floor this coming Saturday and is telling the DJ that the venue have said its fine. This DJ talked to the venue and apparently the venue are on the verge of cancelling his wedding for constantly disregarding the rules.
Julian
Excalibur
17-06-2021, 08:36 AM
Apparently I spoke to soon. I've been checking with venues, now I've checked with clients.
Two of my weddings have been cancelled and have failed to inform either me or the venue!!
It's starting to look like I'm going to have a lot of gaps in my diary in July.
Julian
Snap! One public event ( which was always looking suspect, to be honest), a school prom, and a staff party a week later have all bitten the dust. Balanced slightly by covering a wedding for someone, on the 17th.
Imagine
17-06-2021, 09:38 AM
I've just had word that another July one's going ahead and they look forward to me being there.
This one could be interesting (awaiting more info from the bride and groom), because I'm supposed to be in a medieval barn type thing with a permanently fitted light up dance floor (it's a separate room from everything else that's happening on the day). Hmmm :run:
rth_discos
17-06-2021, 10:34 AM
Today I've sent out the emails to venues and clients asking their plan for weddings over the next few weeks.
Would rather ask and know now than wait til the last minute.
Will see what comes back :eek:
Imagine
17-06-2021, 10:54 AM
Today I've sent out the emails to venues and clients asking their plan for weddings over the next few weeks.
Would rather ask and know now than wait til the last minute.
Will see what comes back :eek:
Did that pre-empting things before Monday's announcement which is why they're now coming back to me (only contacted the couples at this point though).
Waiting to see how this particular couple respond as to their plans before going direct to the venue and cross-checking. I'm hearing a lot of stories at the moment where couples are pitching suppliers vs venues so that they get exactly what they want regardless of what's allowed - and that's not a game I'm willing to take part in if it means falling foul of the already sketchy in places guidelines, blind-eyes from local authorities and nosey neighbours who've had 18 months without hearing a party and decide they don't want them to return.
Excalibur
17-06-2021, 11:29 AM
I've just had word that another July one's going ahead and they look forward to me being there.
This one could be interesting (awaiting more info from the bride and groom), because I'm supposed to be in a medieval barn type thing with a permanently fitted light up dance floor (it's a separate room from everything else that's happening on the day). Hmmm :run:
Methinks you're going to be awfully lonely, except for the first dance. :Laugh:
Today I've sent out the emails to venues and clients asking their plan for weddings over the next few weeks.
Would rather ask and know now than wait til the last minute.
Will see what comes back :eek:
If it's anything like my venue on Sunday, absolutely nothing. :(
Did that pre-empting things before Monday's announcement which is why they're now coming back to me (only contacted the couples at this point though).
Waiting to see how this particular couple respond as to their plans before going direct to the venue and cross-checking. I'm hearing a lot of stories at the moment where couples are pitching suppliers vs venues so that they get exactly what they want regardless of what's allowed - and that's not a game I'm willing to take part in if it means falling foul of the already sketchy in places guidelines, blind-eyes from local authorities and nosey neighbours who've had 18 months without hearing a party and decide they don't want them to return.
It's a dangerous and irresponsible attitude to breach the rules current at the time. Well done for following them, it's the only sensible option.
Imagine
17-06-2021, 11:38 AM
It's a dangerous and irresponsible attitude to breach the rules current at the time. Well done for following them, it's the only sensible option.
I completely agree (although I still don't see how 22,500 cheering in Wembley is any different to.......no......don't get me started :mad:)
Thankfully, they've just come back to me and confirmed that it's a barn with a big double door in the end of it which opens onto a patio. The venue owner is going by the dancing isn't banned, it's just advised against route (have to agree there), and the physical dance floor has been removed. My plan is to take a couple of additional speakers so that I can have slightly lower sound levels but more evenly distributed (i.e. it'll sound like a reasonable volume without booming) and job's a good-un. Hopefully it's a nice sunny evening and the guests will prefer to do their shape throwing on the patio just to be even safer.
Ticks all my boxes within my understanding of what's allowed :)
ppentertainments
18-06-2021, 10:44 AM
Well, the past couple days is really throwing into doubt when we will return.
Imagine
18-06-2021, 10:52 AM
Well, the past couple days is really throwing into doubt when we will return.
Why? What's changed?
I've only lost one (thankfully) and he's pushed back to a date I happen to have available in September. Other than that, the rest before 19th July are going ahead.
Don't know if the following screenshots help?
18909
18910
18911
18912
Excalibur
18-06-2021, 01:08 PM
Why? What's changed?
I've only lost one (thankfully) and he's pushed back to a date I happen to have available in September. Other than that, the rest before 19th July are going ahead.
Changed or not, I've lost the one I was covering for someone. Granted, another July one has moved to September, so that's something, I suppose. :(
Imagine
19-06-2021, 12:26 PM
And around and around and around we go....where it stops nobody knows...
My 11th July that I lost and was looking to push back to September. Seem's he's had words with the venue this morning who are assuring him that his wedding will be pretty much as he was planning and it's all systems normal. I've obviously gone back with the warning that things might not be quite normal with volume levels and certainly no dance floor as things stand and he still seems OK.
So, back to July it is for that one then :daft:
Anyone know for fact what the "rules" are at the moment? This one's a marquee (not sure if the walls open or not). Getting confused seeing things from the Facebook lawyers about sound levels (and where are they measured from?), lighting (can we or can't we because it encourages dancing), and warning guests before proceedings commence that they need common sense and leave things at that. Also, if there were to be an inspection and things are a little shall we say, "rowdy" - who do they go for? Me....or the license holder?
Retrodisco
19-06-2021, 12:29 PM
The sound level that was quoted previously 85db has been dropped and volumes are not mentioned any longer.
The guidelines are just that, very few of them are laws.
Nobody is policing this, just agree what's what with the venue and go for it.
DJ Jules
19-06-2021, 07:52 PM
And around and around and around we go....where it stops nobody knows...
My 11th July that I lost and was looking to push back to September. Seem's he's had words with the venue this morning who are assuring him that his wedding will be pretty much as he was planning and it's all systems normal. I've obviously gone back with the warning that things might not be quite normal with volume levels and certainly no dance floor as things stand and he still seems OK.
So, back to July it is for that one then :daft:
Anyone know for fact what the "rules" are at the moment? This one's a marquee (not sure if the walls open or not). Getting confused seeing things from the Facebook lawyers about sound levels (and where are they measured from?), lighting (can we or can't we because it encourages dancing), and warning guests before proceedings commence that they need common sense and leave things at that. Also, if there were to be an inspection and things are a little shall we say, "rowdy" - who do they go for? Me....or the license holder?
The venues I've talked to that are putting up marquees are basically telling me it's business as usual once the function goes outdoors.
Julian
Excalibur
19-06-2021, 08:44 PM
The venues I've talked to that are putting up marquees are basically telling me it's business as usual once the function goes outdoors.
Julian
Pretty much what many round here have done previously. Next Saturday's wedding had already planned that months ago, clever lad.
DeckstarDeluxe
20-06-2021, 11:02 AM
Collected two hire jobs yesterday.
One at 8pm, clearly followed protocols and hence why it was wrapping up at that time.
Other one at midnight, DJ overplays by 15 minutes. Nobody wearing masks and dancing together. No staff to be seen.
It's a mess the whole thing.
DJColsie
20-06-2021, 03:39 PM
One of the venues I cover for has insisted that DJs only use one speaker to help reduce sound levels and staff have a handheld DB devise to measure levels 1 metre in front of the speaker and stick to 80db.
DJ Jules
20-06-2021, 07:38 PM
One of the venues I cover for has insisted that DJs only use one speaker to help reduce sound levels and staff have a handheld DB devise to measure levels 1 metre in front of the speaker and stick to 80db.
One of the venues I'm booked for has said its not their job to police the rules. Talk about polar opposite attitudes.
Anyway, more speakers = less volume at any point in the room so their idea is a bit misguided. Also, 80db? Literally no point in you being there.
Julian
Imagine
06-07-2021, 08:53 AM
So - to answer the question posed by this thread "Will we return in 2021?"
YIPPEEEEEE!!!!!!
:DJ::DJ::DJ::DJ::DJ::DJ:
Excalibur
06-07-2021, 11:07 AM
So - to answer the question posed by this thread "Will we return in 2021?"
Calm down dear, " it's only a disco". :p
Nakatomi
06-07-2021, 11:14 AM
Ah yes, but will we REMAIN returned in 2021? :fp:
Ever the optimist, I know but that's the multi million quid question ...
Excalibur
06-07-2021, 11:39 AM
Ah yes, but will we REMAIN returned in 2021? ...
Seriously, Mr Javid says yes. Unequivocally.
( I'm not sure the man's really cut out for politics. :whistle: )
I've said all along, the genie's out of the bottle. We've lost reverse gear now, the nearest we have is crawler gear. Steady as she goes, and as far as some customers are concerned, it's already a free for all. No matter what government says, ( many of ) the public are convinced it's all over, and will behave correspondingly. Whether that's right or wrong......................
ppentertainments
06-07-2021, 12:36 PM
Ah yes, but will we REMAIN returned in 2021? :fp:
Ever the optimist, I know but that's the multi million quid question ...
That is the dark cloud we will have hanging over us for the next 12 months I think.
I know a lot of venues are not going ahead as normal with xmas parties etc, but who knows, still plenty of time for things to change and think if the cases do rise as predicted, but hospital cases remain low, we will be fine.
Excalibur
06-07-2021, 02:17 PM
still plenty of time for things to change
There's always time, and I think we will see a continuous adjustment for a long time.
and think if the cases do rise as predicted, but hospital cases remain low, we will be fine.
And this is the crux of the race between the vaccine and the virus. People dying in large numbers in hospital beds is quite rightly unacceptable. People catching the virus in ( relatively ) large numbers, and either not going to hospital, or going to hospital, but not ICU is acceptable. The trick is to balance the equation.
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