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Thread: Will we return in 2021?

  1. #181
    Imagine's Avatar
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    This is an interesting time....

    The scientists (who are renowned for wanting to eradicate this thing no matter how hard it'll be) are asking for easing (i.e. 21/6) to be delayed by a month (that's a LOT of money on my P&L account so OI!....NO!)

    Boris and his sidekicks however are still saying that there's nothing in the data to suggest that stage four can't go ahead....even last night!

    And they're right! (Boris...NOT the scientists!)

    Let's be honest!. Yes....transmission and infections are up, but hospitalisation and death is stable/falling. There's now no economic sense in delaying any further. Just look at the pictures of beaches over the weekend, and the number of people living "normal" lives in shops (my own supermarket is packed at the moment as if there's no threat anymore). I'm even starting to remove my mask on customer doorsteps (against company policy but hey....I'm asthmatic and outside where there is very little risk...especially in my neck of the woods where they don't even publish where the infections are anymore for fear of identifying who's got it!)

    The general public want to and indeed are returning to normal life, and I think that's going to include weddings and parties of any description....whether Boris and Co. allow them or not! Civil disobedience of sorts is looming!

    I know the rhetoric was "no earlier than 21st June", but I think Boris has dug himself a very deep hole in that the public are expecting 21st June come what may.

    I'm still taking bookings for July/August this year despite some of the negative news. The couples themselves are confident that things will be back to business by then! And let's face it, in the drafty marquees and farm barns that I tend to work in where it can get blimmin' chilly at times...where's the risk? It's hardly a sweaty nightclub atmosphere.

    I've looked into my crystal balls (yes I walk funny) and can foresee

    * Receptions of upto 50 guests for the remainder of 2021
    * Dancing (socially distanced) allowed again
    * Music levels still kept to background levels (cough!) to prevent raised voices.

    Thoughts?

    In other news...i've now passed my exams to be a "competent person" to provide PAT testing, The PAT meter and stickers will be with me later today and the stress and expense has already paid for itself. It's initially for my own use but could prove to be a business "pivot"
    Last edited by Imagine; 02-06-2021 at 01:35 AM.

  2. #182

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    Cases are rising, hospitalisation trail cases by 2 weeks, deaths by 4 weeks. That's why Hancock has delayed the decision by 3 weeks, because it gives them time to fully evaluate if vaccination has really broken the link between cases and deaths.

    As you say though, the brakes are off, people are pretty much back to living their normal lives and I can't see anyone taking much notice of any changes to the rules. Very few of the current rules can realistically be enforced.

    Julian
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  3. #183
    Resident Antagonist Benny Smyth's Avatar
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    So we have locked down to protect the NHS, the elderly and vulnerable, the NHS (again), the not so elderly and vulnerable, the NHS (again...again), and now scientists reckon we need to again for people who have refused vaccines and/or travelled to virus hot spots without quarantining on return.

    Sorry, but having saved more lives the the average superhero, the rest of us now need our lives back.

  4. #184

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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Smyth View Post
    Sorry, but having saved more lives the the average superhero, the rest of us now need our lives back.
    ...and then there's the variant problem that means that the selfish and unvaccinated could undermine the vaccination effort for everyone else. I'm being a bit harsh with that, the impact of the unvaccinated in developed nations is going to be nothing compared to the problems caused by denser populated and less well off countries. As the WHO keep saying, vaccination has to be a global effort.

    Julian
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    Weddings, Birthday Parties, Kids Parties, School Disco's and more
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  5. #185

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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Smyth View Post
    now scientists reckon we need to again for people who have refused vaccines and/or travelled to virus hot spots without quarantining on return.
    That's not what I've heard from scientists. That's what I've heard anti-lockdown campaigners interpret what scientists have said.

    What scientist have said is that not enough of the population has received their second dose + waited 2-3 weeks for that second dose to take full effect.

    We keep looking at the headline figure of those who have received a first dose, but we are still at less than 50% of the population with both doses (and this doesn't include children).

    Which means when the maths is calculated, we don't have enough herd immunity through vaccination to stop a rise in cases and the knock on hospitalisations and deaths.

    What they are saying is that the NHS isn't in a position to cope with any further peaks, as attention desperately needs to be diverted to those who have other illnesses and conditions that need treating. There's a big backlog that needs to be started. Any more peaks of hospitalisations just pushes those other treatments even further back.

    The impression I get is that just a few weeks extra on the current type of restrictions could avoid a later more dramatic set of restrictions. And it is short lived, as the vaccinations are continuing at a great pace.

    However, they really need to sort the financial support out.

    We cannot control Covid.

    But we can control handing out money to those who have been affected by the restrictions - and so far they haven't been generous enough to a significant number of people.

    I truly believe if they had sorted out proper financial support for *everyone* who needed it, we wouldn't now have such a call for lockdown measures to be lifted.

  6. #186

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    The vaccine was sold as the be all and end all. Now we're close to freedom, this is being back tracked with some other story.

    Everyone makes a big deal about the 2nd dose for 'complete protection'. But surely complete means 100%?

    Another issue, why approve a 1 dose vaccine that works at less than 90%? If you can have that why make a big deal about the 2nd dose of previous jabs?
    Nathan.

  7. #187
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    Quote Originally Posted by rth_discos View Post
    What scientist have said is that not enough of the population has received their second dose + waited 2-3 weeks for that second dose to take full effect.

    Which means when the maths is calculated, we don't have enough herd immunity through vaccination to stop a rise in cases and the knock on hospitalisations and deaths.
    The problem with the herd immunity argument, as with pretty much anything when it comes to this pandemic, is that it changes depending on which scientist you're talking to. From memory, we've achieved herd immunity four times now, ranging from last summer to this April just gone, which I posted about in this very thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by rth_discos View Post
    What they are saying is that the NHS isn't in a position to cope with any further peaks, as attention desperately needs to be diverted to those who have other illnesses and conditions that need treating. There's a big backlog that needs to be started. Any more peaks of hospitalisations just pushes those other treatments even further back.
    The number of new cases is starting to rise again, thanks mainly to the variant formally known as 'Indian'. Hospitalisations are slowly rising too, but much more slowly than previous outbreaks/waves/whatever you want to call it. One would assume slower because of the vaccine working it's magic for those who haven't refused it.

    There has to come a point where we as a society, and the politicians who make decisions on our behalf, have to decide what is an acceptable level of hospitalisations and death. It's not a pleasant subject to talk about, but we do have to talk about it. I've said it before that it was always a numbers game.

    On average, 450 people die of cancer each day. Nearly 200 people die with dementia/Alzheimer's each day. Now look at Covid deaths (I'm not going to look specifically at what was reported yesterday because that was a one-off, plus the delay in reporting from the Bank Holiday weekend etc.).

    We do need to be driven by data, but should we also be driven by comparative data? Things are different to last March, last September and even this January. The news tells us today that 115 of the 11,214 deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 21 May mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate, and that newly-released figures for virus-related deaths is the lowest since September, and down by 49 on the week before. We're even hearing today that The UK is on the brink of reaching three-quarters of adults receiving their first Covid vaccine, with half getting their second. What would the ratio be on June 21st? Maybe add another 10% to each? Do we need more folk double jabbed? Maybe look at driving up the second vaccine in Bolton and other areas where the Delta variant is now in high concentration.

    And what about this Bank Holiday weekend? In Bank Holiday's gone by, we were warned repeatedly to not travel to the beach, be careful, and the usual three-worded slogan. Maybe I just missed it, but this Bank Holiday I barely heard a peep. There's the usual daily "Data looks encouraging, but don't relax just yet" schtick, but no specific guidance from the Government about what turned out to be the hottest day of the year thus far.

    As it stands today, there's not a lot of argument to delay June 21st. Obviously, if facts change then I dare say that policy has to change as well, but I take issue with being told that I need to wait a couple of weeks to see how hospitalisations and deaths are being affected by Delta, whilst also being told by scientists that current data already tells us that we need to kick the can down the road.

  8. #188

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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Smyth View Post
    We do need to be driven by data, but should we also be driven by comparative data? Things are different to last March, last September and even this January. The news tells us today that 115 of the 11,214 deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 21 May mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate, and that newly-released figures for virus-related deaths is the lowest since September, and down by 49 on the week before. We're even hearing today that The UK is on the brink of reaching three-quarters of adults receiving their first Covid vaccine, with half getting their second. What would the ratio be on June 21st? Maybe add another 10% to each? Do we need more folk double jabbed? Maybe look at driving up the second vaccine in Bolton and other areas where the Delta variant is now in high concentration.
    All these numbers have been crunched - they have taken into account the transmissibility of the Indian variant, and the level of vaccination and determined we're not quite there.

    It's not far off though - literally just a few weeks.

    Ultimately, would you be prepared to sacrifice a family member instead of a few weeks of extending current restrictions?

    Oh, and herd immunity wasn't achieved through natural infections last year and was never possible to be achieved that way - it would have been total carnage.

  9. #189

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    Quote Originally Posted by Imagine View Post

    I've looked into my crystal balls (yes I walk funny) and can foresee

    * Receptions of upto 50 guests for the remainder of 2021
    * Dancing (socially distanced) allowed again
    * Music levels still kept to background levels (cough!) to prevent raised voices.
    That mirrors what I am expecting. Will be happy with that as don't think it will cause any problems and cannot see people rescheduling
    Semi-Retired Multi Award Winning DJ

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  10. #190
    Imagine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ppentertainments View Post
    That mirrors what I am expecting. Will be happy with that as don't think it will cause any problems and cannot see people rescheduling
    Me too, although Boris has AGAIN today reiterated/hinted that it's business as usual from 21st June so could potentially be more bodies on the dance floor

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