Will we return in 2021?

[DJ Jules]

The problem is that vaccination doesn't stop infection, it just protects people from serious illness and reduces the rate of transmission (because people who aren't sick, aren't contagious for as long).

If transmission rates are high, then there's a strong chance of mutation, and if the virus mutates to circumvent the vaccine, then we're back to square one.

Vaccination reduces transmission, so it helps keep R down while allowing us to open things up, but it's a gamble whether it reduces it enough to prevent mutations from becoming rife. It's a fine balancing act and, sadly, this isn't just about us. The Kent mutation is showing up around the world now, so it needs a global effort to get the virus under control. Either that or we do close borders completely until global numbers drop and even then we run the risk of immediately getting another vaccine resistant, highly transmissible strain run through the country when they re-open. The hotel quarantine plan kind of makes sense but, if you look at what we're doing, we're repeating all of the mistake that Australia made last year.

I think you're right though, regardless of what science says, people will have had enough by the summer and, if last summer is anything to go by, that will probably be fine (outdoor gatherings with some controls didn't really pose a risk last year) but whether the transmission rates allow the rules to be relaxed enough to re-open dance floors and how close we are allowed to return to normal, is likely to be another story...

Honestly, I think the population are dumb enough to think that vaccination means we're done and go back to normal life, regardless of the rules, and put us back to square one. Either that or America will do it for us 🤣

[DJWilson]

Honestly, I think the population are dumb enough to think that vaccination means we're done and go back to normal life, regardless of the rules, and put us back to square one. Either that or America will do it for us 藍

The issue is we all keep being told this vaccine is the route out, so as others have already said if we're not out by the time all adults are done (at least all vulnerable) then people will say this I'm going to enjoy life again.

You can't keep people living in fear of this or any future virus.

I speak to many people everyday in my day job and the amount of people that won't do anything or see anyone is shocking. There's no point living if we're acting as if we're already dead.

[Excalibur]

Julian post #27, and Wayne#28, I think ( hope? ) you're both correct. Seems logical to me.

Gavin #29, I think it's the fear of opening everything up too quickly, and going straight back to square one that's holding them back. Also, the flak they'd receive for doing so. It appears ( to me ) that they feel that prolonged lockdown is the lesser of two evils. Connected to this, I'm sure they're aiming to lower the numbers as much as possible before taking the brakes off, to minimise the chances of vaccine resistant strains appearing.

After last year, once Spring/Summer arrive, I'm not sure how much longer people will tolerate draconian restrictions. I do indeed fear civil unrest, even if it's something as minor as having a party with fifty people.

[ppentertainments]

The issue is we all keep being told this vaccine is the route out, so as others have already said if we're not out by the time all adults are done (at least all vulnerable) then people will say this I'm going to enjoy life again.

You can't keep people living in fear of this or any future virus.

I speak to many people everyday in my day job and the amount of people that won't do anything or see anyone is shocking. There's no point living if we're acting as if we're already dead.

Have you noticed how we have seen nothing on Rishi (chancellor) since his comments about the scientists moving the goalposts ??

I am in no way a conspiracy theorist by any stretch of the imagination, but it does seem as though government are moving goalposts and choosing what industries they want to survive.
My son attends one of the top Performance Arts schools in the country - and even they have had government emails suggesting to change career.

[DJWilson]

Have you noticed how we have seen nothing on Rishi (chancellor) since his comments about the scientists moving the goalposts ??

I am in no way a conspiracy theorist by any stretch of the imagination, but it does seem as though government are moving goalposts and choosing what industries they want to survive.
My son attends one of the top Performance Arts schools in the country - and even they have had government emails suggesting to change career.

Yup. We're not being given the full picture (hopefully tomorrow will be worthwhile), which is the most frustrating part.

They can't say we need to open step by step to stop another surge and then send all kids, from every year group back on the same day .

[Imagine]

They can't say we need to open step by step to stop another surge and then send all kids, from every year group back on the same day .

Sadly then can, and they will (it'll be the most important part of the edict given tomorrow evening).

Something to bear in mind, they're saying that all adults will be offered the jab by the end of July....but that's only the first shot. How long until everyone gets the second shot to make things properly safe?

I still think anything we get this year will be a massive bonus. They'll keep saying we can't party in any shape or form until such time as the second shots have been administered and the variants dealt with.
The sad part is, weddings in particular are the IDEAL way to reopen what we do. It's a closed guest list (track and trace right there) and could lead the way forward for all mass gatherings and parties going ahead

Is it 2022 yet?

[Excalibur]

How long until everyone gets the second shot to make things properly safe?

16th May.

Oops, sorry. Didn't see the " everyone" bit.

[Benny Smyth]

Have you noticed how we have seen nothing on Rishi (chancellor) since his comments about the scientists moving the goalposts ??

This is something that has played on my mind for a while now. The justification of all the restrictions that we have endured over the last year - whether you agree with them or not - were put in place to ensure that the NHS doesn't get overwhelmed. One could argue over how successful that has been, but the point is that was the goal - Protect the NHS. To put it bluntly, people can become very ill with Covid-19 and some will pass on but as long as the NHS can get to a level where it can cope with the workload, and it being overworked doesn't contribute to the number of deaths, then that was the goal. It was never about people, it was about numbers.

I came to this realisation on the afternoon my cousin succumbed to Covid-19. I was watching the news and I saw a man who lived on this earth for 47 years become a number, and not a number by himself but bunched in with a load of other people who - regardless as to what they have contributed to the world - are now a statistic.

But that's what we did. Lives were lost alongside homes, jobs, careers, businesses, support, friends, family, sanity, health...the list goes on, all on the understanding that we can start returning to normal once the NHS was able to cope. So from that perspective, after the top 9 groups get vaccinated, there is no justification for these restrictions to remain in place because they were the ones that took up the most hospital beds. Mission accomplished.

But it's not.

The narrative is changing and we're seeing the finish line of this marathon moving further away. It was a case of "If we achieve this, we could have that" and now it's "Ah...but we need to do this now." Regardless as to whether you agree with the new narrative or not, the fact is that a lot of people are going to be annoyed that the thing they were promised is no longer relevant, and when you so many who are on the brink of losing everything that they have spent their entire life building and working towards because the goal has changed...it's a scary thought.

And the even scarier thought? Think of all those businesses and individuals who will be doing their 20/21 tax returns after not earning any money for a year. Chances are, they'll be getting a rebate while at the same time not paying anything in to help contribute towards the NHS that we are all trying to protect.

Stuff it. I'm opening an OnlyFans account.

[Imagine]

Fingers crossed.....

Mark 21st June in the diaries lads and ladesses!

[Shaun]

Fingers crossed.....

Mark 21st June in the diaries lads and ladesses!

....yep, but 2024 if in Scotland.